Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

TOD: Export Land Model

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 18:06:45

The Oil Drum: An Extension of the World Import/Export Land Model

I have been eagerly anticipating this.

Currently reading the first comments.

So, for internal consumption of Export Land ranging from flat to a maximum growth rate of that shown in the past six years and with an overall production decline rate of 2% we see a decline in Import Land's consumption ranging from 3% to 5% with a total decline in 2020 from 33% to 50%.


A 5% decline rate seen in Export Land production with increasing internal consumption translates into about a 10% decline rate in Import Land's consumption. Consumption would drop 75% by 2020. Assuming a constant internal consumption translates into a 7% decline rate for Import Land consumption which would be a drop of about 60% by 2020. So, for internal consumption of Export Land ranging from flat to a maximum growth rate of that shown in the past six years with Export Land production declining at 5% and Import Land production declining at 2% we see a decline rate for Import Land's consumption ranging from 7% to 10% with a total decline in 2020 from 60% to 75%. I think it's probable that we would see less than optimal events occurring should a 5% decline rate be attained and the model presented would end up being wildly incorrect by 2020.

OK, that's one way of putting it. [smilie=5obsessed.gif]
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 18:30:42

It is this line of thought that converted me to a neo-doomer position.


[smilie=qleft5.gif] [smilie=qright6.gif]
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4577
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 19:00:31

The consensus in the initial comments is that 12.5 years is insufficient time to mitigate against either scenario.

The declines even under status quo assumptions are colossal. The inertia is too great. The timescale is an economic blink of an eye.

Reductions in consumption of those proportions have not been seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union (I once read 78% reduction in emissions from peak to nadir), taking it far beyond the scope of any conceivable environmental accord.

Not only that, but as we observe today, an exporter can make more money selling lower volumes as supply/demand drives the oil price disproportionately higher. For the first few of those 13 years, the situation will be agreeable to oil exporting nations, so there would be little reason for them to take action. If KSA's production decline is involuntary, there is a bright side, for a time they will be making record profits.

The other problem highlighted is the necessity keenly felt by many Export Land governments to keep their booming populations content, to delay the onset of the internal instability for which there is such rich potential. This need, essential to their survival, will clash with their obligations to their consumer/sponsor nations, also necessary to their survival. Production and export collapses would lead to an unenviable dilemma. Choking back domestic consumption could lead to a unrest, a weakening of the state, even revolution. Choking back exports could lead to invasion or simple retribution from a distance. Decisive action in any direction would force the issue, thus the path of least resistance would be to coast along, delaying the inevitable as long as possible.

Little attention is given to price, though it would be difficult to do so. Clearly domestic fuel subsidies and lavish social programmes would eventually have to be compromised. But so would much else. If we're talking 33 - 75% of oil imports being shut off by 2020, it is hard to imagine what medium of exchange would be used at that stage if the worst case projection turns out to be accurate.

However, as I have said before, while Russia may be the first of the Export Lands to be felt, its impact may be less severe than what follows when ME Gulf states' production enters terminal decline. Russia has a historically downtrodden declining population with modest expectations and little popular apocalyptic thinking. Much of it has opted out of national life in line with survival strategies of the past. For authorities seeking to restrain domestic consumption in order to maintain revenue, it will not be as difficult to bargain with as say, the youth of countries such as Saudi Arabia.

That's where we are going to have problems if OPEC's books got cooked in 1988 as badly as we think.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby Mo_Oil_Dave » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 20:19:29

Hello there...

The article of the Export Land model was very well done and easy to understand. It definately rings true. Kudos to the author.

It is a pity that the discussion afterwards degenerated into a Global Thermo-nuclear War. All that will do is destroy the available infastructure. Clearly biological wepons will be a better choice. Whatever happened to the nuetron bomb? If I remember correctly, it just irradiated everything with a lethal dose of x-rays. Then you could move your in population about two weeks after the resident one died. No lasting radiation, no fallout, and the buildings are available for immediate use.

UGH
David
User avatar
Mo_Oil_Dave
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 42
Joined: Sat 06 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: San Antonio, Texas

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 20:22:29

Mo_Oil_Dave wrote:Hello there...

The article of the Export Land model was very well done and easy to understand. It definately rings true. Kudos to the author.

It is a pity that the discussion afterwards degenerated into a Global Thermo-nuclear War. All that will do is destroy the available infastructure. Clearly biological wepons will be a better choice. Whatever happened to the nuetron bomb? If I remember correctly, it just irradiated everything with a lethal dose of x-rays. Then you could move your in population about two weeks after the resident one died. No lasting radiation, no fallout, and the buildings are available for immediate use.

UGH
David


My mom explained the nuetron bomb to me this way. It ignites, living things die. Other people can come right in and play Nintendo.

No wonder I turned out a little ... wierd.

At least, as far as I understand they are rather complicated and require regular maintanance since the half life of one of the components is like 6 years.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4577
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby MattSavinar » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 21:38:12

Mo_Oil_Dave wrote:Hello there...

The article of the Export Land model was very well done and easy to understand. It definately rings true. Kudos to the author.

It is a pity that the discussion afterwards degenerated into a Global Thermo-nuclear War. All that will do is destroy the available infastructure. Clearly biological wepons will be a better choice.



If they can nail down the gene specific tech, then yeah:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Arc ... cific.html

If nukes weren't onthe table, Bush would not be spending tons of money upgrading and expanding the nuclear arsenal. And Putin would not be buzzing London airspace with his strategic bombers.
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 22:06:55

MattSavinar said:

If nukes weren't onthe table, Bush would not be spending tons of money upgrading and expanding the nuclear arsenal. And Putin would not be buzzing London airspace with his strategic bombers.


If the nuclear powers are going to destroy the world they had better do it pretty soon. Nuclear weapons only have a self life of about three years. Following that short period of time, the triggers deteriorate and they are no longer operational. Restoring the weapon to operational status is hugely expensive and technologically challenging. If oil supply falls at the rate that the model projects, there will soon be no economy to support such a vastly and difficult technological effort.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7136
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 21 Jul 2007, 23:13:00

Twilight wrote:That's where we are going to have problems if OPEC's books got cooked in 1988 as badly as we think.


Well put, but add Mexico to that list of future failed oil exporters.

In as little as three years, the net oil and oil product import/export balance may shift to the import side for Mexico. Granted, they still be net exporters of oil while they become more heavily dependent on gasoline imports, but that won't help their trade balance.

What will happen then should give us a good idea on how the powers that be intend to deal with the down slope of Peak Oil. I don't think the results will be too pretty in Mexico, judging from the that bombings of natural gas/oil pipelines has already started.

Still up in the air is how the US will deal with unhappy Mexican citizens on its borders.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby seldom_seen » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 01:01:06

shortonoil wrote:If the nuclear powers are going to destroy the world they had better do it pretty soon. Nuclear weapons only have a self life of about three years. Following that short period of time, the triggers deteriorate and they are no longer operational. Restoring the weapon to operational status is hugely expensive and technologically challenging. If oil supply falls at the rate that the model projects, there will soon be no economy to support such a vastly and difficult technological effort.

I did not know that. Very encouraging news. Thanks.
seldom_seen
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2229
Joined: Tue 12 Apr 2005, 03:00:00

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 04:35:59

shortonoil wrote:MattSavinar said:

If nukes weren't onthe table, Bush would not be spending tons of money upgrading and expanding the nuclear arsenal. And Putin would not be buzzing London airspace with his strategic bombers.


If the nuclear powers are going to destroy the world they had better do it pretty soon. Nuclear weapons only have a self life of about three years. Following that short period of time, the triggers deteriorate and they are no longer operational. Restoring the weapon to operational status is hugely expensive and technologically challenging. If oil supply falls at the rate that the model projects, there will soon be no economy to support such a vastly and difficult technological effort.

Primitive nukes (Little Boy alike) would have a shelf life measured in thousands of years with minimal maintenance only. No high tech would be needed for that either. Main objection would be not to allow fissile pits rusting.
With sophisticated ones (means all plutonium based nukes) you are right.
On the other hand once air defenses will deteriorate worldwide etc, primitive nukes will do their job nicely...
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6831
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 04:43:37

DantesPeak wrote:Still up in the air is how the US will deal with unhappy Mexican citizens on its borders.

Minefields, electric fences, death zones etc.
User avatar
EnergyUnlimited
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6831
Joined: Mon 15 May 2006, 03:00:00

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 05:36:33

Poking around the LATOC forums a bit (don't visit there much) I see the Doom has been ratcheted up a few score notches. Even topics in the Team Post like Prepare for Peak Oil by Drinking Beer.

Image

Guess this explains why Matt wants nothing to do with anybody who even passively brings up gentle crashes, economic mitigation, etc. Best thing to do when he puts in his two cents, or rather 500kt, at TOD is to skim over the eschatological discussions, if you're so inclined.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 08:56:45

EnergyUnlimited said:

Primitive nukes (Little Boy alike) would have a shelf life measured in thousands of years with minimal maintenance only.


Little Boy, if I remember correctly, was a gun type bomb that required over 60 kg of enriched U-235. U-235 is not easy to come by, so they won’t make very many of them, if they bother at all. We could see a few dirty bombs, like the Japanese intended to drop on the West Coast during WW II, but they are not very effective and are primarily terror weapons. The population should already be in a pretty good state of terror at that point, so their efficaciousness will be dubious at best.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7136
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby Revi » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 09:45:21

If we have only about 25% of the available energy in 2020, we had better get going and do something about it. We can live on less quite easily. In the US we could live on half of what we have now with no trouble at all. We just have to start doing it. 12 years isn't that far away. What are we doing? It's time to get mass transit going. Start to melt these pickups and SUV's and make something that will transport people. Get some more rails down so that a train can transport people again. Start to make cities and towns liveable again, because we'll be in them sooner than we think. I think a lot of this is happening already, but it is going too slow. We need to get those dummies out of the White House so that we can start to do what needs doing! I hate to have to wait until 2008 to get started on what needs to be done.

In our town we have renovated the downtown, started up a farmer's market and have the best recycling center in the state. We still need some kind of mass transit here and we need to start to plan for what's coming. I showed some of the town planners End of Suburbia, and they watched it. Maybe we can do something about what's surely coming here in our community. 25% of what we have now is going to hurt a lot. No question about that. If that is the reality, however, we must plan for it.

We can only do what we can do. I have no control over nuclear war, so I can't plan on any action in relation to it. I don't plan on moving to NYC. I think it could be a bad place to be. When the reality of peak oil becomes apparent, we'll all have to adapt. We have solar hot water, a backup PV system and a wood stove. We could live on 25% of the fossil fuel we get now, but it would be a bleak life. We wouldn't be taking any trips to disneyworld. The lights would be out (except for solar) when the sun goes down. Gasoline would only be used for getting wood and taking stuff to the dump. We'd eat a lot of beans and rice. It's gonna suck.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7335
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby Revi » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 10:07:24

I just read the export land model. Wow. I knew all about peak oil, but it still is a little hard to fathom. 25% of what we have now may hurt a lot. Kids who are in kindergarden now won't be driving. None of us will be driving anything bigger than a scooter. It's always later than you think.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7335
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 10:13:59

I have two boys, 3yrs and the other 8 months. I have often sat back and wondered about the fact that they may never drive... at the very least they will never be as proficient as those of us who grew up with cheap oil, cruising on Friday nights and dough nuts down at the abandoned rail station.

I am reminded, however, of some of the stories I remember hearing of my grandfather. He found other ways to get into trouble... other types of practical jokes, other types of showing off for the girls. I hope I have the chance to tell my grandkids about the age of oil the same way my granddad tells stories about farming with mules. I'm guessing my boys will be better with mules than I ever will be. I, like all old people, will belong to a previous era. I won't get a lot of things not because they have progressed beyond me but regressed before me.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4577
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby Twilight » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 10:20:17

Revi wrote:If we have only about 25% of the available energy in 2020, we had better get going and do something about it. We can live on less quite easily. In the US we could live on half of what we have now with no trouble at all. We just have to start doing it. 12 years isn't that far away. What are we doing?

Ah, that difficult word 'we'.

The 'we' to whom you refer, are not about to change their lifestyle. Their response during the first years of hardship (and yes, they will maintain this response for years) will be to direct their thoughts and energies into campaigning for a restoration of past conditions. There will be no shortage of populist opportunists to position themselves to reap the temporary benefits. Debates over siting of utility and transport infrastructure will become more vicious, international tensions will become more intense, domestic policy more reactionary (and this by popular demand), regions within a country or city more fractious, and current exceptionalist individualist thinking in the West more pronounced.

Put simply, much of the inadequate adaptation time will be squandered. I say 'adaptation' not 'preparation' because much less of the latter remains than the former.

It has been said that foreknowledge of peak oil and surrounding issues will confer no advantage to the few once the crowd has its epiphany. I do not believe that is so. Even as economic effects strike and understanding spreads, the crowd response will be to pull in the wrong direction. To use the tired vegetable garden example, the majority will be entreating their governments to feed them for years after they could have planted something.

The mitigation which on paper is possible, requires nothing less than hundreds of millions of people in the developed world writing off not only their financial but their cultural investments. This is expecting a bit much in the space of a decade. Few peoples are up to the task, the American people less able than most, and failure is pretty much inevitable. I think the well-informed among the powers that be, understand well the limitations of their subjects. Not that they will ever admit this. YOU can do it! YOU are amazing! YOU are special!

Yeah.

I do not mean to be unconstructive, but the years pass, more insights are gleaned, more points added to the curves, and our collective ability to survive collapse diminishes. The time remaining does not lend any sense to stepping onto a box and shouting encouragement at people to cooperate.

Think about it this way, the time remaining is within the lifetime of a truck rolling off the production lines right now.

It makes more sense to find somewhere already quiet and backwards, become a part of it, and hope it stays quiet and backwards.
Twilight
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 3027
Joined: Fri 02 Mar 2007, 04:00:00

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 10:34:49

I'm in general agreement with Twilight but there a chance that Americans will respond one way politically (along Twilight's line of thinking) and another way personally.

I have been surprised of the number of individuals I know thinking about gardening, practicing on an almost comically small scale, but doing it none the less. A lot of us have parents who were back to the landers who might dust off the old Rodale books. A lot of grandparents who will turn their flowers and shrubs into small gardens.

I have no doubt that a lot of energy will go to recreating the "good old days" but a lot of us distrust government enough (witnessed by the power of anti-governemtn rhetoric in our political process ie Ronald Reagan) that we can demand action of government while acting as if we are on our own.

It is the same logic that leads us to love our guns. It is the same thinking that makes us dislike foreign entanglements (hence the radical rhetoric used to get us involved in Iraq and the public desire to get out and let "them" sort it out for themselves). Before I get too much flak let me say I'm trying to explain American emotions not issues of moral or ethical responsibility.

We love our roads and distrust our government. We have a libertarian streak that I don't think exists much elsewhere in the Western World (please correct me if I am wrong) except maybe Western Canada.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4577
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 10:44:20

Revi said:

It's always later than you think.


If you look back at the history of predication for the oil industry, you will find that it has always been spiked with unremitted optimism. This has been true of the mining industry in general, and is probably a product of our innate mental processes. The best guess seems to work by taking the “experts” average estimates, and then subtracting a component of a Fibonacci phi mate: .38 or .62. This appears to be how we generally evaluate risks.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7136
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: TOD: Export Land Model

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Sun 22 Jul 2007, 12:41:34

While I agree with Twilight for the most part I think it's a bit too far into doomerland. I believe that there are many areas where there are more educated and willing folks to make significant changes when the need arises. We may go into the night, but I think there will be many pockets of civilization that dont out and out melt down. Cooperation, teamwork and the ability to do what needs to be done for survival. Its instinctual in our species and while things may sink very low, as long as there are smart folks around we will make the effort. many will be succesful. I plan on being one, and this is where a bit of foreknowledge puts you ahead of the curve. Not by much, but it helps you avoid the mass hysteria from the unknown.

I know it sounds a bit silly but I just watched the movie "The Postman" and it struck me that a generation after any worldwide collapse this is the sort of thing one could envision evolving from PO.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4374
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Next

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests