TOD: Export Land Model
Posted: Sat 21 Jul 2007, 18:06:45
The Oil Drum: An Extension of the World Import/Export Land Model
I have been eagerly anticipating this.
Currently reading the first comments.
OK, that's one way of putting it.
I have been eagerly anticipating this.
Currently reading the first comments.
So, for internal consumption of Export Land ranging from flat to a maximum growth rate of that shown in the past six years and with an overall production decline rate of 2% we see a decline in Import Land's consumption ranging from 3% to 5% with a total decline in 2020 from 33% to 50%.
A 5% decline rate seen in Export Land production with increasing internal consumption translates into about a 10% decline rate in Import Land's consumption. Consumption would drop 75% by 2020. Assuming a constant internal consumption translates into a 7% decline rate for Import Land consumption which would be a drop of about 60% by 2020. So, for internal consumption of Export Land ranging from flat to a maximum growth rate of that shown in the past six years with Export Land production declining at 5% and Import Land production declining at 2% we see a decline rate for Import Land's consumption ranging from 7% to 10% with a total decline in 2020 from 60% to 75%. I think it's probable that we would see less than optimal events occurring should a 5% decline rate be attained and the model presented would end up being wildly incorrect by 2020.
OK, that's one way of putting it.