present their solutions to peak oil..
I’m no expert, but I do believe that I’ve got a pretty firm grip on reality, plus I don’t have an agenda to push and I’ve educated myself a fair bit on the issue - so I’ll offer my $0.02.
The “problem” of peak oil can be defined in many ways, and you haven’t defined what that problem is. If you define the “problem” as maintaining the status quo, which is accurately defined as never ending economic and population growth, then that is a tall order to fulfill. It requires exponential amounts of energy - fusion or some other essentially
endless and
bountiful supply of energy. (Either that or we have to branch out to other planets, which is so beyond our current abilities it doesn’t deserve any further mention.) So, the energy “solution” for making things work on this planet must be much more energy dense and/or much more bountiful than fossil fuels. It would also need to be an exceptionally clean technology. Instead what we’re going to turn to is a hodgepodge of all of the other fossil and non-fossil fuel technologies out there. And, lucky us, we are going to be rewarded with a fraction of our current energy use and we’re also going to make the planet that much more unhealthy.
If the problem of peak oil is how to prevent catastrophic collapse, then I think most here would agree that the key is obtaining sustainability. Maybe if fusion was rolled out in the next decade we could consider the 6 billion on this planet a sustainable number. Given enough energy we can be very clever and invent our ways around problems (although you won’t see me holding my breath.) But if fusion was rolled out prior to a worldwide recognition of the problem of our runaway population growth, then we would likely continue on our “never ending growth is good” cycle creating a whole other set of problems – peak topsoil, peak water, whatever.
So we need sustainability. Now, we can have some very fruitful discussions about how we maintain sustainability, but if one accepts the premise that our current worldwide population isn’t sustainable without that
endless and
bountiful supply of energy, then we necessarily must ramp down.
So, we need sustainability, and our current numbers aren’t sustainable, so we need to ramp down. So how do you ramp down? Well one type of way is the forced way through wars, disease, starvation etc. Not fun. Is there a gentle way to ramp down? Sadly I think the answer to this is a resounding NO. Those in power, those with the most wealth have no desire to “gently” ramp down? Why? Because a gentle ramp down necessarily implies having a means by which to equitably and fairly implement that ramp down. Those with the wealth and power would have to willingly give it up. The utopia ramp down would be that everyone on the planet agrees to an equitable distribution of wealth and they would also forgo control of their reproductive systems. I think we’ll all agree how ludicrous that idea is. So what is the utopia-1 scenario? There isn’t one, because at utopia-1 the equitable and fair requirements have necessarily been abandoned. Someone, somewhere is deciding who gets to do what. In reality we all know that those with the most power and wealth will be dictating what will happen and they are obviously going to look out for their own interests. Now let’s throw a few doses of reality into this peachy scenario – how about, oh, religious fanaticism, historical grudges, ideological conflicts etc. What a love fest! I can’t see any scenario whereby we’re going to obtain a pleasant ramp down on the way to sustainability. Wars, starvation and disease are coming - the wars will likely be triggered by resource demands but will likely also aggravate all of the other issues of our time. The million dollar question is, how severe will these wars be? Will those who survive have an environment that isn’t destroyed, and will we be able to maintain some of our amazing advances in knowledge?
To me, there is no solution. It's a reality, deal with it. I’d dearly love to be wrong on this. Can anybody out there
logically tell me how we are going to ramp down in a “decent” way??? Please??