Major oil pool found
Posted: Fri 11 Jun 2004, 12:33:01
Does anyone have any information on how much this is estimated to be?
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N ... est%20News
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N ... est%20News
Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
https://peakoil.com/forums/
https://peakoil.com/forums/the-international-energy-agency-iea-thread-pt-3-merged-t65721.html
Maybe someone could?
BloombergU.S. crude-oil stockpiles fell 9.1 million barrels to 269.5 million in the week ended Sept. 17, the U.S. Energy Department said. Supplies are 5.8 million barrels from being the lowest since September 1975. It was the first time since 1988 that inventories had dropped for eight straight weeks.
The breakdown of this correlation is probably what most analysts are referring to as the terror premium. I prefer to think of the so called 'terror premium' as really a 'lack of surplus capacity' premium. Terror or no terror, low spare capacity is going to add to price.
I think the spare capacity is an interesting variable, because it would be impossible to be in decline without having zero spare capacity. Seeing spare capacity go down, and prices subsequently edge upward, these are things that must preceed peak. Of course, it's theoretically possible to rebuild spare capacity, but the trend is down there. That's thanks to the US going into Iraq in part. Would they like to lose more spare capacity (nb. understatment) by going into Iran?
That would lead naturally lead to make another kind of chart...
Charting spare capacity....vs. prices.. (over time..like the chart above to determine linear relationship
Maybe the chart's available somewhere...or we could make it...
We could we get the data?
Pip wrote:I'd like to see a spare capacity chart over several years. Maybe lack of spare capacity is normal and that is the way the industry works. I doubt it, but this is my first peak oil scare. Just trying to get some perspective.
Griztown wrote:Russia is still increasing their output.
Based on the previous chart, spare capacity jumped up again in 2001, why was that?
nero wrote:Based on the previous chart, spare capacity jumped up again in 2001, why was that?
The Bubble bursting and recession in US caused that increase in spare capacity.
Nero wrote:The Bubble bursting and recession in US caused that increase in spare capacity.
small_steps wrote:Really? Does the actual consumption numbers back this statement up?
But I might add quickly that as we try to factor in space capacity as a variable, that it is possible that even if space capacity is zero, we may not be at peak. In other words, production is flat out (supply and demand in balance, or demand greater than supply), but still to rise.
Mathematically: peak is conditional upon spare capacity=0?
but spare capacity=0 not conditional upon peak?
I wrote:This could be tested if we had dates for each of those 2004 data points. They're probably on the IEA website or somewhere. I'll see if I can find them and post the results...
The new model we are proposing could be very useful.....even pre and post peak, when one considers demand destruction (intentional or otherwise) to intentionally alleviate or increase spare production capacity due to peak production contraints...would act as the limiting cap and provide a rough guide...
small_steps wrote:Graphing the weekly and monthly data can provide some very interesting insights, how the hell do you posts images