recent model taking recession into account?
Posted: Sat 17 Oct 2009, 11:40:35Hello everyone,
I was wondering if anyone had read any books or studies that take the recent recession into account when modeling peak oil?
I say this, because most of them simply take data from around 2005, and project it forward. This literature becomes less and less relevant to me as time drags on. The fact is that projections of steadily increasing growth and oil demand do not reflect today's reality. Imho the current economic conditions make forcasting peak oil much less predictable than it was just a few years back under steady state conditions. I don't know where this moves the peak, but I would like to read something written by someone who has done the math, and can relay the facts to a layman such as myself.
I was wondering if anyone had read any books or studies that take the recent recession into account when modeling peak oil?
I say this, because most of them simply take data from around 2005, and project it forward. This literature becomes less and less relevant to me as time drags on. The fact is that projections of steadily increasing growth and oil demand do not reflect today's reality. Imho the current economic conditions make forcasting peak oil much less predictable than it was just a few years back under steady state conditions. I don't know where this moves the peak, but I would like to read something written by someone who has done the math, and can relay the facts to a layman such as myself.