Do you have a history of predictions somewhere that you want to summarize?
I don't usually make predictions about things that are going to happen, rather predictions about things that I don't think are going to happen because I don't think they're possible.
I have said (and still maintain) that I don't think economic growth can happen after peak oil, and in fact I expect it to stop before reaching peak oil (between five to ten years before).
What was the prolem with Newfie's? Wrong verbiage for severe weather?
Too many typos for my liking.
However, now you've got me interested in what your opinions/results/analysis might have been years ago, and how they have changed, and why.
My LTG analysis hasn't changed, because I haven't updated it. I've thought about updating it, but I no longer think that there would be much point in publishing an update, so I can't muster the effort of going through the serious revisions that I'd like to do. The energy side I'm still fairly happy with, but I know the population side needs revising, I'd like to include a calculation for the effect of potential wars, describe people with two variables (one for the median person, another for the dispersion, because rich and poor people behave differently) and also go through some serious pruning of the model, taking away everything that doesn't need to be in it. (I now think that the simpler the model, the more likely to be accurate, if it could be properly calibrated, which is a big if). At this point I don't have an actual model, it's more like a mental model held together with back-of-the-envelope calculations, and because I haven't gone through the process of trying to put things together, I'm well aware it could have plenty of holes you could drive oil tankers through.
Actually, the model should probably be rebuilt from scratch, but that would kind of defeat the purpose I had in using the LTG model originally, which was using something that I hoped other people would be already familiar with... except that it turned out that people are familiar with the book, not the model. So that effectively leaves me trying to argue that my model is a good idea, when I have no credentials at all, and the LTG model itself looks like a cautionary tale about something that never took off successfully. Not to mention that, the way things are looking, we may be well past the point that such a model might be useful as an inspiration to anyone. The way I see things now, either somebody somewhere (maybe China) has already a good equivalent of what I've been thinking about, but it's not been talked about, so there is no point in me attempting to do it, or, if it hasn't been done, we are probably so screwed that we need to be thinking about lifeboats rather than modelling.