Sea Level Rise Pt. 3
Posted: Wed 30 Oct 2019, 22:14:59
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Rockdoc & Kublikhan
Lets admit that we don't know how much warming we are likely to experience by the end of century.
It is probably between 3 and 10 *C.
Perhaps more likely 3 than 10 but still.
There are different models, different groups of scientists working on these models and different opinions.
Also unknown latent switches and obscure feedbacks.
So a lot can change in all these models.
Science has its limitations too and quality of scientific work is falling down during last 2-3 decades, so published results, even if constitute best guess we might have, need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Have red many entirely incompetent articles published in chemical journals so I do not expect situation to be very different elsewhere.
These aguments may go on ad nauseum so lets wait and see.
Even if we don't see it ourselves, our grandchildren surely will. Those of us who live for 10-30 years more may see some indications (or even spectacular catastrophies in places like India).
One way or another we are going to be dead by the end of this century, so entire exercise is very much like discussions of turkeys what they will eat on the Christmas.
I know these models and they are not as different as you believe. And for sure there is no disagreement between the scientists unless you are talking about the fringe like Richard "Linear" Lindzen. The variation between models shows you how are reasonable range of differences in the coding and parameter selection can produce a spread of results. The best approach is to take the average of this ensemble.
But the problem is that the current generation of models are not complete in terms of physical process resolution. Comparison between the model results in the last 20 years we see that they have been failing to fully capture the sensitivity of the atmosphere-ocean system to greenhouse gas induced warming. This flies in the face of all the denier BS about "climate alarmism". This issue does not make modeling a pointless activity and we have actually learned that there are missing aspects to known processes or unknown processes that have to be researched and implemented into the models. If the lunatic deniers had their way, we would have been sitting on our a**ses and been at the science level of the 1940s today.