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Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 14:31:22
by jedrider
pstarr wrote:The Redwood range has been shrinking for millennia.
The recent final decimation (98% of the giant trees are gone) is all logging.

Visiting the California State parks where they point out the NEW range of the Redwoods, which has NOTHING to do with where the trees are TODAY, but everything to do with where the trees will be TOMORROW. That is what is meant by RANGE!

Yes, it's hard to get a handle on CHANGE, especially rapid change. We might SEE trees, but they're really GONE. SEE what I mean??

Re: +++The South African mega drought desaster+++

Unread postPosted: Wed 11 Oct 2017, 14:48:31
by aspera

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Tue 14 Nov 2017, 11:44:53
by M_B_S

Hot weather and winds worsen Cape Town drought

14 November 2017 - 08:56

The City of Cape Town has attributed part of the drop in dam levels in the past week to hot weather and winds.

In their latest water update‚ the city said dam storage levels were currently at 36.8% but the last 10% is not usable.

“Our dam levels have declined by 1% over the past week. This could be attributed to the high winds and hot weather which contributed to evaporation‚” mayor Patricia de Lille said in a statement.

She said the city had managed to halve its water usage thanks to the efforts of 51% of the city’s water users.

“We will only get through this crisis together. To make this partnership work even more effectively‚ I appeal to all water users‚ especially the 49% who are not saving water yet‚ to join us all as we escalate efforts to beat this drought‚” De Lille said......

SA Drought @ 410 ppm CO2 and 1850 ppb CH4

Its only getting worse..... world wide with droughts and floods

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Nov 2017, 05:29:31
by dohboi
Morocco is struggling with the second consecutive significant drought year...

Although the south is pretty arid, most of the time the Atlas (used to) pick up enough rainfall to keep the agriculture happy. Rainfall is pretty unreliable, it must be said, but still - these droughts are clearing increasing in frequency and are now becoming almost an annual problem.

See this document for more on Morocco's climate and drought problems: ... orocco.pdf

(thnx to av at asif for links and text)

Note that this fits in to the phenomenon that the Sahara is basically moving north into the once-milder regions along the coast of North Africa and on into southern Europe.

Southwest Europe, Northwest Africa,,,,,

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Nov 2017, 18:17:47
by Whitefang
Yes indeedy,
people like the farmers I spoke are getting worried by the lack of rain, gave my brother in law a pump to irrigate the crops, this year grain, next year wacky tabacky....Kif on the Rif.
Bought a small gasoline 700 W generator for a 120 euro bargain at a local supermarket in Holland, now finding a way to get it on the farm near Chefchouen.

Anyway, thanks for the info D, paper on water issue Maroc.

Hey, even the area of the picos de Europa, bordering the atlantic, looked a bit dry last summer, called the green zone of Spain, very unusual.
Ran out of cash while moving back North with my family, had to stay a bit longer on the pretty coast, not a bummer with my moms car loaded with survival gear.......after Xmess a real drill with ex commando to Sweden, no camping gear or lighter, just your wits and warm clothes....bbbbbrrrrr, short daytime light at 60 degrees NL, meter of snow.

Asked mi mommy dearest for a 3 gran loan and got myself into: ... -Buccaneer

I think a wise investment, way better than a pension plan 8)
Kevin, the one who built it, wanted to drive it to South Africa, it has rear drive dubbel air, 4 cyl 2800 cc diesel with turbo, no fancy electronics, direct injection like a truck. extra suspension/springs, solar pannels with large battery, extra 120 l watertank, 700 W amp and subwoofer to blast opponents ears.....
A fully functional babe layer.
Family getaway I mean.

The Buccaneer is back!
Yup, I am a pirate. My truck for bread is my flagship, 2016 DAF XF.
First American one were a 86 F 250 with a standard, 6 in line on gas, two years up to Alaska, down the Baja and a winter in Montreal/Detroit.

A hundred years before the French Revolution, the buccaneer companies were run on lines in which liberty, equality and fraternity were the rule. In a buccaneer camp, the captain was elected and could be deposed by the votes of the crew. The crew, and not the captain, decided whether to attack a particular ship, or a fleet of ships. Spoils were evenly divided into shares; the captain received an agreed amount for the ship, plus a portion of the share of the prize money, usually five or six shares.[7]

Crews generally had no regular wages, being paid only from their shares of the plunder, a system called "no purchase, no pay" by Modyford or "no prey, no pay" by Exquemelin. There was a strong esprit among buccaneers. This, combined with overwhelming numbers, allowed them to win battles and raids. There was also, for some time, a social insurance system guaranteeing compensation for battle wounds at a worked-out scale.[8]

Buccaneers initially used small boats to attack Spanish galleons surreptitiously, often at night, and climb aboard before the alarm could be raised. Buccaneers were expert marksmen and would quickly kill the helmsman and any officers aboard. Buccaneers' reputation as cruel pirates grew to the point that, eventually, most victims would surrender, hoping they would not be killed.

When buccaneers raided towns, they did not sail into port and bombard the defenses, as naval forces typically did. Instead, they secretly beached their ships out of sight of their target, marched overland, and attacked the towns from the landward side, which was usually less fortified. Their raids relied mainly on surprise and speed.[9][better source needed] The sack of Campeche was considered the first such raid and many others that followed replicated the same techniques including the attack on Veracruz in 1683 and the raid on Cartagena later that same year.

Been thinking about the Ferrel cell, Hadley has grown stonger with abrupt CC, polar cell weakened but still working........are we seeing the death of Ferrel?
The turning into a two cell or even one cell system?
I know J.Francis is talking temp.gradient/jet stream weakening......
But does it all not lead to a very unstable, extreme, chaotic unusual weather system, climate that brings the worst you can imagine within our lifetime?

And we are not even in the real change yet, that will likely be when the ice on the pole is gone, within 5 years or so.

The Ferrel cell is driven by the Hadley and Polar cells. It has neither a strong source of heat nor a strong sink to drive convection. As a result, the weather within the Ferrel cell is highly variable and is influenced by changes to the Hadley and Polar cells. The base of the Ferrel cell is characterized by the movement of air masses, and the location of those air masses is influenced in part by the location of the jet stream, even though it flows near the tropopause. Overall, the movement of surface air is from the 30th latitude to the 60th. However, the upper flow of the Ferrel cell is weak and not well defined.

In contrast to the Hadley and Polar systems, the Ferrel system provides an example of a thermally indirect circulation. The Ferrel system acts as a heat pump with a coefficient of performance of 12.1, consuming kinetic energy at an approximate rate of 275 terawatts.[1]

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Thu 30 Nov 2017, 23:18:35
by dohboi
Interesting points, wf.


La Niña means drought is now expanding in Texas, even though we're just three months after Hurricane Harvey's record-setting rainfall.
Yes, this will be Houston's rainiest year in history. Yes, they'll probably end the year in a drought. ... 0090443783

(Thnks to sig at asif for this)


Sahara ‘moving north’
BY CARRIE-MARIE BRATLEY, IN NEWS · 23-11-2017 14:04:00 ·
A leading national expert on climate change has warned that the Iberian Peninsula might soon be facing spells of droughts that could span up to eight years, as Portugal’s climate becomes increasingly like the arid climes of Northern Africa. ... orth/43959

thanks to COBob at scribblers for this

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Tue 05 Dec 2017, 13:02:16
by Plantagenet
Loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean causes drought in California


Computer models show that the shrinkage of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean causes climate effects that include drought in California. Enhanced global warming at high latitudes causes the rapid loss of Arctic sea ice.

So next time you people in California are thinking about firing up your SUVs and going on a joy ride, blasting CO2 into the atmosphere behind you, consider instead taking a nice walk or a bicycle ride.

Remember---global warming isn't just about the saving the polar bears.....the environment you save may be your own.

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Mon 01 Jan 2018, 14:16:36
by dohboi
Apparently, CA can expect more and more severe droughts going forward as the Arctic sea ice continues to melt (it just hit it's lowest mark ever for this time of year):

Ivana Cvijanovic et al (2017), "Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall", Nature Communications 8, Article number: 1947, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4

Abstract: "From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts."

Extract: "The “low Antarctic ice” simulations show that the proposed mechanism can be triggered by sea-ice changes in either hemisphere. Since Antarctic sea-ice loss involves northward propagation in both teleconnection steps (i.e., Antarctic sea-ice affecting the tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the North Pacific) and no high northern latitude changes, it provides additional support for our conjecture that the sea-ice changes can influence North Pacific geopotential height through tropical convection changes. More generally, any high-latitude perturbation (northern or southern hemispheric warming or cooling) that impacts the position of the tropical Pacific ITCZ, will have an impact on California’s rainfall."

(But I'm sure none of this will ever touch pete's little least as long as the ganga supply lasts!! :) :) )

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Thu 11 Jan 2018, 21:08:19
by vox_mundi
Cape Town, South Africa, Is Running Out of Water

Cape Town, home to more than 4 million, is in the midst of the worst drought to hit South Africa in more than 100 years.

City officials say they will "turn off the tap" in April when dam levels are expected to reach 13.5 percent of capacity.

The situation is dire. Dams supplying the city with usable water dropped this week to 29.7 percent, the city of Cape Town posted to Facebook on Wednesday. Only 19.7 percent of the water is usable. Several times a day, the city encourages residents via social media to conserve water.

Mayor De Lille says she hopes it won't come down to Day Zero, but the city is already planning for that eventuality. Should the city be forced to turn off the taps, 200 water stations guarded by police and the military will be set up to ration out roughly 6.6 gallons (25 liters) of water per day per resident.

Cape Town isn't the only city dealing with water issues in a warming world.

The World Wildlife Fund estimates two-thirds of the world may face water shortages by 2025 as droughts become more frequent because of global warming.

The World’s First Major City to Run Out of Water May Have Just Over Three Months Left

It’s the height of summer in Cape Town, and the southwesternmost region of South Africa is gripped by a catastrophic water shortage. Unless the city adopts widespread rationing, the government says, the taps “will be turned off” on April 22, 2018, because there will be no more water to deliver.
... “It’s not an impending crisis—we’re deep, deep, deep in crisis.”


Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Sat 20 Jan 2018, 10:15:57
by dohboi
Scribbler on how Iranian drought is increasing political instability (shades of Syria): ... stability/

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Wed 24 Jan 2018, 17:27:44
by dohboi
California is having a near-record low year for snow. So is a lot of the Western U.S. ... 2362753024

Length of present (nearly) unbroken #SoCal dry spell is remarkable. Los Angeles has only seen a single day of significant rainfall (>0.25 in.) since last Apr (2017), and only 2 days with precipitation above 0.5 inches since last Feb--nearly a year ago.#CAwx #LArain @NWSLosAngeles ... 2260618243

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Tue 30 Jan 2018, 03:54:20
by M_B_S

Cape Town’s impending Day Zero

Cape Town’s impending Day Zero is likely to have a severe knock-on effect across the entire national economy, widely affecting a number of sectors, and resulting in a possible credit rating downgrade for South Africa.

Speaking to the Citizen on Tuesday, economist Mike Schussler said that the water crisis is several times worse than load shedding, as not having access to water is relatively permanent compared to rolling blackouts.

This could lead to a number of businesses and industries looking at semigrating so that they can continue business operations in the country, he said.

Depending on how long the drought lasts, he believes that major industries such as IT, transport, agriculture as well as exports will all be significantly impacted as water scarcity limits businesses and causes Capetonians to look for greener pastures.

“We saw with the electricity crisis that South Africa missed out on a lot of growth. A water crisis to me is a few times worse. There’s no rolling blackouts with water. It’s permanent,” Schussler said....

Image ... ms-n841881



You think Doomsday is not coming? You are wrong!

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Sun 04 Feb 2018, 15:19:29
by dohboi ... o-14977622
Less than a year after Gov. Jerry Brown declared an end to one of the worst droughts in California history, a consortium of nationwide water experts reported Thursday that 44 percent of the state is again experiencing at least moderate drought conditions.

And note:

We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Cape Town’s Water Crisis Should Be a Warning to the World

Unread postPosted: Wed 07 Feb 2018, 18:41:36
by AdamB

Cape Town residents line up to refill water bottles at Newlands Brewery Spring Water Point on January 30, 2018 in Cape Town, South Africa.Photo: Morgana Wingard/Getty Images Cape Town, South Africa, a city of 4 million people, is just weeks away from becoming the world’s first major city to run entirely out of water — but of course, it won’t be the last. South Africa’s second-largest city after Johannesburg, Cape Town was not an obvious candidate for that dubious distinction. In 2014, its dams were flush with rainwater and its water-conservation strategy was award-winning. Then came the worst drought South Africa had seen in a century, lasting three whole years. Now, the Theewaterskloof Dam, the city’s main reservoir, is at just 13 percent of capacity. Climate change is obviously a factor in Cape Town’s water crisis, as South Africa faces a hotter and

Cape Town’s Water Crisis Should Be a Warning to the World

Pakistan’s Water Crisis Is a Ticking Time Bomb

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Feb 2018, 00:11:39
by AdamB
When it comes to Pakistan, President Trump’s Twitter feud with one of America’s most important partners in the fight against terrorism has dominated the news. But beneath the headlines, a massive water crisis is unfolding that has profound implications for the country’s stability and security. Rapid urbanization and conflict combined with corruption, crime and years of mismanagement have left a massive proportion of the population without access to clean water. And now, this long-festering crisis threatens to upend Pakistan’s politics. Perhaps the strangest thing about Pakistan’s water crisis is that until recently, the country had been doing well in connecting more of its citizens to water supply and sanitation networks. From 1990 to 2015, the percentage of the country’s population with access to clean water increased from 86 percent to 91 percent. But in a reversal of what happens in most

Pakistan’s Water Crisis Is a Ticking Time Bomb

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Feb 2018, 10:49:51
by dohboi
Drought and dry conditions now dominate most of the lower forty eight:

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Feb 2018, 16:46:02
by jedrider
dohboi wrote:Drought and dry conditions now dominate most of the lower forty eight:

That's weird that San Francisco Bay Area is considered NORMAL. I was away for three weeks and they had some rain and the ground appears to have moisture (I presume that living on foothills gives drainage for prolonged periods).

However, it is so unseasonably warm that I suspect that ground water to be depleted soon enough.

I use to find it somewhat cold bicycling during the winter here and the summer often was too sunny and warm. Then the winters became my preferred bicycling season. Now, it is almost too warm during the middle of the day during the winter. This is rapid climate change.

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Feb 2018, 20:13:52
by Cid_Yama
Kashmir and the Politics of Water

Reacting to the repeated unprovoked ceasefire violations by Pakistan, Union Minister and Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale proposed an all-out decisive war with the neighbouring country with the aim of taking back Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

"Pakistan frequently violates ceasefire. Although we have extended hand of friendship to them so many times, I feel now the time has come for a decisive battle with Pakistan. That country needs to be taught a lesson," the union minister of state for social justice and empowerment said.

In his motion of thanks to President's address in Rajya Sabha, Athawale quoted former PM Atal Vajpayee to strengthen his rationale for the war with Pakistan.

"India is a tiger and Pakistan is a midget in front of us. We should take a cue from what Atal ji said and warn Pakistan that if it doesn't accept our offer of friendship, we will attack," the Maharashtra leader said.

"The attack should be so severe that not only we are able to seize the illegally occupied portion of Kashmir but also some parts of the Islamic republic," he added.


Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postPosted: Fri 09 Feb 2018, 20:20:29
by onlooker
Speaking of water in this drought thread
Coca-Cola And Nestlé To Privatize The Largest Reserve Of Water In South America
Brilliant (sarcasm) ... h-america/

No glaciers, no water?

Unread postPosted: Sat 10 Feb 2018, 00:41:24
by AdamB

The world's largest rivers begin in glaciated mountain regions. However, climate change may cause many glaciers to disappear. Will water become scarce? There are around 200,000 glaciers worldwide. They play a central role in the water cycle, particularly in the middle and low latitudes, by offsetting runoff fluctuations. Rivers are lifelines on which billions of people depend worldwide, either directly or indirectly. Will water become scarce in the near or distant future if glaciers become increasingly smaller or disappear completely? Will the Alps, the Himalayas, the Rocky Mountains and the Andes continue to act as water towers? We set out to answer this question in a study of all the earth's mountain regions and the drainage basins of their large rivers. Decisive "peak water" We used a glacier model that describes the development of glaciers worldwide and their future runoff until the end of

No glaciers, no water?