https://paulbeckwith.net/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tblT1Zq ... tion=shareAround 10 minutes into the video, on the wheat belt that is being pushed out of Australia, down under
Number 4 just after USA, Canada and Russia, will be gone next decade or the one after that.
Say the other ones manage to produce far less under the stress of abrupt CC.
The rest of the world to a third down to be optimistic
Well, Australia is only listed between Turkey and Germany for year 2016. Number 9 to 11 on the map.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internati ... statisticsA good Aussie year makes about 25 million tonnes, bad around 15, very bad 10 million tonnes.
So lets take it from bad to worse on a global scale: 2003, total of 550 million ton, against 750 in 2016. Last 2 years are not listed.
Eu ......20% reduction under the worst of the 1996 to 2016 period: 111 minus 20% is about 90 Mton. China 86 Mton minus 30% for being East Asia, landclimate…..60 Mton.
India 62 Mton minus 33% for monsoon trouble and shrinking glaciers on Tibet, 40 Mton.
Russia 27 Mton minus 30%, forest fires, water depletion, 20Mton.
USA and Canada, 60 Mton minus 33% means 40Mto.
UA 7 Mton minus 25%, 5Mt.
Pakistan 16 Mton, loosing a third, 11 Mton
Australia 10 Mton for the worst year, down another half, leaving only 5 Mton to eat wheat.
Turkey 16 minus a third, 11 Mton.
Argentina 8 minus 25%, 6 Mton
Kazachstan 5 mimus 20%, 4 Mton.
Iran 7 minus a bit, 5 Mton.
Adding up the top 20 or so: 297 Mton.
Say the 20 smaller producers manage to equal a bad year and make: 53 Mton.
That totals 350 Mton wheat for humans to distribute starting from a bad year worldwide and a 20 to 33% reduction for abrupt CC.
Down under 50% under the worst year 1996-2016.
After losing our sea ice on the NH, I fully expect this to be true from then on, say from 2022.
Current harvest above 700 Mton, half after the sea ice is gone, a permanent loss of half our harvest.
I figure the other crops are more or less equally sensitive to an abrupt CC.
So how are you going to adapt, plan for this?
Problem is food, not enough to go around, half of humanity will peacefully give up?
Our management is prepping to bug out around 2030, private Yachts with anti sea to air rockets, sound weapons….private farms with army, underground installations……
The smart thing to do unless you want to get caught up in the traffic jam, the walking dead.
I hope we still have another decade of things running smoothly, BAU but I prep for the worst, things falling apart next year, 2020.
Since there is no way to defend your home or doomstead, you should be a ble to hunt and gather, and find a large forest, the stage where you do your battle.
Wheat