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Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postPosted: Fri 08 Nov 2019, 08:58:58
by Azothius
uhhh no. Northern Hemisphere appears as a separate line. And all of that data is available based on hemispheres etc at the link I posted and that data comes directly from NOAA.

Missed that. Thank you.

I have been searching the net for a reason that they use a 30 year average, rather than longer term, and have not found anything. I thought a reasonable assumption might be that monitoring technology made a significant leap in '80 or '81, but have not found anything that suggests that.

Looking once again at the ACE chart you linked, to your point, I can see how the peaks in ACE have declined somewhat since the high in the '90s. But can also see that the ACE peaks continue to be significantly higher than the two decades that preceded the early '90s. Regrettably, the chart only goes back to 1972.

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postPosted: Fri 08 Nov 2019, 10:55:23
by rockdoc123
Looking once again at the ACE chart you linked, to your point, I can see how the peaks in ACE have declined somewhat since the high in the '90s. But can also see that the ACE peaks continue to be significantly higher than the two decades that preceded the early '90s. Regrettably, the chart only goes back to 1972.


My understanding is that Maue concentrates on the later data as it tends to be a bit more robust. Data does go back into the mid 19th century but it is less reliable. That being said here is a plot of ACE back into the nineteenth century. The cyclic nature is pretty evident and suggests the low in the seventies is not unusual nor is the high in the nineties. Some of drawn a correlation of ACE with the AMO which seems to have similar cycles. Doesn't mean there is a causal relationship however, they both could be responding to some other event(s).

Image

the data for ACE and number of hurricanes this far back comes from NOAA (there are other sources)

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

And the plot comes from Frederic Decker's site. He is a meterologist with La Chaine Meteo. It is actually a pretty decent site that is information only which is refreshing. It's in french but I'm sure an online translator will get the gist of it (I haven't tried one so just assuming).

http://la.climatologie.free.fr/sommaire.htm
http://la.climatologie.free.fr/cyclone/hurricane.htm#cycl4

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postPosted: Sat 09 Nov 2019, 03:13:11
by dohboi
Latest Bulbul forecast, intensity near landfall upgraded to very severe cyclone , storm surge for Western coast of Bangladesh of 1.5 to 2.5 meters extending up to 2 to 3km inland. (Source: Indian meteorological department)

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postPosted: Tue 03 Dec 2019, 06:23:27
by Tuike
Typhoon Kammuri slams into Philippines, forcing thousands to flee -bbc
At least 200,000 residents have been evacuated from coastal and mountainous areas over fears of flooding, storm surges and landslides. Typhoon Kammuri, locally named Tisoy, made landfall in Sorsogon province, and is said to have sustained winds of up to 155km/h (96mph), with gusts of up to 235km/h. Storm surges of up to three metres (nearly 10ft) are expected, the weather service said.

Re: Cyclone, Hurricanes, Typhoons...2019

Unread postPosted: Thu 26 Dec 2019, 01:42:09
by EdwinSm
Philippines hit again, by Typhoon Phanfone, close to regions devastated by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013.

So far ten reported dead, but more missing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-50913965