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Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Fri 21 Dec 2018, 07:44:28
by onlooker
Not 2019 yet, but close enough.
NY forecast today lots of rain and up to 61 F. Yes 61 F

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Fri 21 Dec 2018, 10:05:08
by baha
It is 65 outside in NC right now. RDU airport is within .5 inch of setting an all time yearly rainfall record. And it's raining :)

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Fri 21 Dec 2018, 10:17:43
by GHung
baha wrote:It is 65 outside in NC right now. RDU airport is within .5 inch of setting an all time yearly rainfall record. And it's raining :)


I can't find the link now, but I saw that Mount Mitchell is well over 120 inches, YTD. I'm at 72.25 as of 8:00 AM this morning, and, yes, it's raining. We're at 41 degrees and falling. Solar is at 45 watts/sq meter. We'll probably get a bit of snow tonight.

....and HAPPY HUMP DAY! It's all uphill for the Sun from here.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Fri 21 Dec 2018, 23:01:22
by asg70
Yep. Thanks Plant for doing your part to give us a balmy Christmas with your frivolous flights around the world.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sat 22 Dec 2018, 02:07:54
by careinke
The Weather here in the northwest has been crazy this last week. First we get high winds knocking out power for 20 hours or so. Then the next day, an EF2 Tornado hits Port Orchard, running across the road my son and granddaughter were on not five minutes earlier. The last EF2 in Washington was 1986. Yesterday I watched my sons greenhouse go airborne. In addition, Mt Baker clocked wind speeds of 117 MPH. El Nino is here again.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Tue 01 Jan 2019, 20:35:12
by dohboi
There's a major SSW- Event underway (Sudden Stratospheric Warming)

Judah Cohen's article on the topic:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/cl ... cillation/

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 14:21:59
by Tuike
dohboi wrote:There's a major SSW- Event underway (Sudden Stratospheric Warming)


Thanks for the explanation for the abbreviation so no need to google it.

Strong winter storm batters Finland, causing power cuts, traffic delays -yle
An exceptionally strong winter storm has caused widespread power cuts and traffic problems across Finland.
...
The strongest-ever winds were recorded on the Bogskär islets in the western part of the Northern Baltic on Tuesday night. The average wind speed over a 10-minute period was 32.5 m/s while gust speeds reached as much as 41.6 m/s. A new wave height record of 7.9 meters was set in the Southern Sea of Bothnia, says the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI).

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 14:47:49
by Newfie
To convert m/s to knots multiply by 2.

So 10m/s is 20 knots, roughly

1 m/s = 1.994 knots.

1 knot is roughly 1.15 mph.

So that’s close to an 80 knot max wind speed.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Thu 03 Jan 2019, 14:54:53
by Newfie
Polar Vortex (hate that term) may split into 3 smaller vortex.

http://fortune.com/2019/01/03/polar-vortex-could-split/

Now what happens when that becomes permant? I’m thinking we get predominant Easterlies from the equated to the pole, assuming it just disappears in the Northern hemisphere.

That makes me thingbthe East coast of the USA will become much drier. SoCal will get even drier, the desert regions East of the Rockies may get wetter.

Has anyone heard predictions?

tripole and spit fantasy

Unread postPosted: Sat 05 Jan 2019, 19:01:14
by Whitefang
Hi Newfie,

Paul B. did a video on the beast from the East and so on.....see arctic temp.to set skyrocket ......connected with the central cold pole to shift 17 degrees NL down South, central Greenland instead of all those depressions running around the top of the world like they used to do.

https://paulbeckwith.net/

Recently released by NOAA, the Arctic Report Card 2018 details profound changes underway in the Arctic from rapid temperature increases.
“What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic.” Quote: Beckwith, 2009
Incredibly fast Arctic warming dwarfs the global average and is accelerating:
Winter temperature anomalies are highest, followed by Autumn and Spring.
Arctic Sea-Ice melt keeps Summer anomalies low;
When Sea-Ice vanishes Summer warming will skyrocket like a “bat out of hell”.




from last year, december 29th, he mentions the tripole.


Personally I think the polar vortex will be split in two, warm moist atlantic air to travel counterclockwise, depression after depression to reverse the Beaufort Gyre and push the cold from the Canadian barren down to the Golf......funneled between the Mckenzie/Rockies/Appalachians, that'll be a blast!

That is if we get to see the BOE and Heinrich, the GIS in deep, deep troubled waters. Cold from Greenland will hit African Atlas mtns, heat from the Sahara will travel up to Nova Zembla and beyond. A totally different world from the one in which we grew up.
Just a guess, an opinion. We will find out next decade, storm of our grandchildren is here already.
I am very curious how this is all turning out, I know it is a ELE disaster but I cannot wait to see what happens next :roll:

Like watching that thin white line at the horizon and to see the ships far away get squashed by such enormous, incredible power, and being mesmerized by the beauty and terror of being here, alive and well for now.
To balence the wonder and terror of life as we know it.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Feb 2019, 13:20:52
by Keith_McClary
We've had a mild winter so far in the southern Canadian Rockies. Ground is bare, 3C and raining this morning. They are predicting -25C overnight, -38C with windchill.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Feb 2019, 17:37:48
by Newfie
I’m interested in how this plays out in the short term. I’ve had a bit of a jiggle in my schedule and, while it’s still a remote possibility, I’m starting to consider making my way to Greenland this summer, over wintering the boat, and bring it back in 2020. It’s FAR to early to be watching the ice but I will be.

I was looking at the Danish site the other night and it would seem that the East coast ice is coming South early. But I don’t watch consistently enough to know for sure.

Getting to Greenland should not be that bad. Coming back can be a chore.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Feb 2019, 18:11:20
by Tanada
This is Saturday, with a daily high of 38 F. Three days ago on Wednesday we had a high of -17 with a wind chill of -30 F, yesterday we Thursday we had a high of 6 F and yesterday, Friday, we had a high of 22 F. While these wild weather swings can be exciting they are increasingly hard to tolerate the more years I put on.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sat 02 Feb 2019, 18:59:34
by onlooker
So here in NY, we from a high in the teens on FRIDAY to forecast of in the 50's on Monday. Yea, as I get older the cold sucks more

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Tue 05 Feb 2019, 14:50:29
by jedrider
Havana Tornado Leaves Three Dead, More Than 170 Injured
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-01-28-deadly-havana-tornado-cuba

This seems an unusual event to me. I thought tornadoes occurred mostly in the midwest U.S.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Tue 05 Feb 2019, 18:37:56
by jupiters_release
Saw a waterspout last night first time on the local news, Pacific Northwest. Weather guy was really excited.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Fri 08 Feb 2019, 18:30:47
by Outcast_Searcher
jedrider wrote:Havana Tornado Leaves Three Dead, More Than 170 Injured
https://weather.com/news/news/2019-01-28-deadly-havana-tornado-cuba

This seems an unusual event to me. I thought tornadoes occurred mostly in the midwest U.S.

OTOH, Cuba isn't a huge land mass.

It has seen serious tornados in the past 100 years.

http://www.cubahurricanes.org/history-h ... nicles.php

For example, looking at my state, KY, which has a similar land mass:

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/violent_tornadoes_kentucky

If you count the wild event in 1974 as one (big) tornado event, then the overall frequency seems similar between the two areas.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sat 09 Feb 2019, 15:43:27
by Shaved Monkey
Driest wet season on record here.
Usually my water tanks are overflowing last week they were totally empty and I was on town water for the first time ever in a wet season.
I havent planted anything in the garden and trees are dying that have been here for the 15 years Ive been here surviving just on rain water

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sun 10 Feb 2019, 05:14:55
by Tuike
It's raining in february and snow is melting. Winters are getting shorter.

Re: Strange weather 2019

Unread postPosted: Sun 10 Feb 2019, 06:26:24
by clif
If you count the wild event in 1974 as one (big) tornado event, then the overall frequency seems similar between the two areas.


Ummm actually NO, there were 148 tornadoes with <b>30 F4/F5</b> tornadoes confirmed, in the outbreak not just 1 like in Cuba.

Cuba has had <b>2</b> F-4 tornadoes since in recent recorded history

Dec. 26, 1940, and Jan 28, 2019

There were 594 F4/EF-4+ tornadoes from 1950-2011 in the United States

23 in Kentucky alone

11 in the 1974 outbreak with 63 people killed

Since 1950, there have been 59 officially rated F5 and EF5 tornadoes in the United States.

1 in Kentucky April 3, 1974

Cuba has never had one rated F5 and EF5 tornado on record.

You see where your false equivalency starts to fall apart?