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General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax"

Unread postPosted: Thu 23 Aug 2018, 11:10:48
by EnergyUnlimited
It seems that in government departments idiocy never ends.
For last 40 years or so China had very strict 1 child policy which resulted in countless human rights abuses etc.
Now guess what?
Government have found that they *don't* have enough children and country might be facing an economic ruin due to rapidly rising cost of care for elderly and also severe social troubles due to a lack of women (117 men per 100 women).

Now they are considering another idiocy, this time in opposite direction.
They are beginning public debate about *taxing peoples for having not enough children*.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -kids.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/0 ... maternity/

I wonder what will come out of that...

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Thu 23 Aug 2018, 20:37:13
by Ibon
EnergyUnlimited wrote:It seems that in government departments idiocy never ends.
For last 40 years or so China had very strict 1 child policy which resulted in countless human rights abuses etc.
Now guess what?
Government have found that they *don't* have enough children and country might be facing an economic ruin due to rapidly rising cost of care for elderly and also severe social troubles due to a lack of women (117 men per 100 women).

Now they are considering another idiocy, this time in opposite direction.
They are beginning public debate about *taxing peoples for having not enough children*.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -kids.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/0 ... maternity/

I wonder what will come out of that...



Consider something. When the Chinese implemented the 1 child policy they were insular and the policy addressed the issue of managing their population within their borders.

Today China is expanding around the planet with unprecedented economic power and the management of their global Belt and Road initiative and infrastructure projects will require many more Chinese to live over seas to manage their global empire.

It makes sense that they want to breed more Chinese in anticipation of the expansion of their global empire.

While insular they had to contain their numbers within their border. Suddenly their borders are the whole planet and 1.5 billion is not any longer too many. In fact they may have a shortage of labor.

This is well calculated and anything but idiocy.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Fri 24 Aug 2018, 11:59:34
by EnergyUnlimited
Ibon wrote:Consider something. When the Chinese implemented the 1 child policy they were insular and the policy addressed the issue of managing their population within their borders.

Today China is expanding around the planet with unprecedented economic power and the management of their global Belt and Road initiative and infrastructure projects will require many more Chinese to live over seas to manage their global empire.

It makes sense that they want to breed more Chinese in anticipation of the expansion of their global empire.

While insular they had to contain their numbers within their border. Suddenly their borders are the whole planet and 1.5 billion is not any longer too many. In fact they may have a shortage of labor.

This is well calculated and anything but idiocy.

It can be seen from history that growing empire does not require growing your own population, which in case of China is a substantial one anyway.
Growing empire relies on conquering or corrupting *local* populations or on making them an offer good enough, so an empire is embraced voluntarily.
So for example in British Empire maybe 7% of residents were Brits and in existing American one maybe 15% of residents are Americans and perhaps only 7% are american WASP-s.

So 1.5 billion of Chinese could easily run entire Earth (or even 2 Earthes) as a single empire and there would be no shortage of them.

A lot may also be said about structure of Chinese economy, but it is enough to notice that credit bubble there can be even worse than one in US and there is an amazing misallocation of capital there as well.
It may not be feasible for China to build an alternative to existing US led structures, but they surely can callenge these and make American life very difficult in case of conflict.

I suspect that current narration there is related to huge mess made very *locally* with 1 child policy and now even more mess will be made while they are attempting to reverse its effects.
It is not an empire building quest what is causing reversal of the policy but horribly aging population, where within a decade number of dependands will exceed number of workers, with only worsening situation as time progress.
Also to do with men/women imbalance.
So what we can see now is just another version of *great war on sparrows* launched by commander Mao.
I would not be surprised if within 10-20 years from now *pregnancy orders* are issued to women once situation is bad enough.
And then a story will make a full circle.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 07:16:41
by Ibon
EnergyUnlimited wrote:
I suspect that current narration there is related to huge mess made very *locally* with 1 child policy and now even more mess will be made while they are attempting to reverse its effects.


EU, yes the aging demographic and the sex ratio issue is a major imbalance as you point out. The chinese however are a novel empire. They are expanding around the globe but are still internally insular. They do not integrate but send millions overseas. Here in Panama there are tens of thousands of chinese immigrants opening up hard ware stores and grocery stores though chinese mafia organizations.

Chinese corporations do not vertically integrate with management from diverse origins. They are purely chinese run operations and diversity only enters in at the lowest menial levels of employment. So I stand by my point that a big part of the push for more births is to eventually fill the positions of their global empire with their own chinese trained citizens.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 09:07:40
by Cog
Not surprised tha Ibon doesn't want to criticize a communist regime.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 09:35:50
by KaiserJeep
Cog, I read what he wrote and considered it a criticism of the Chinese.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 12:46:16
by dissident
It isn't idiocy. The commies over did it with the one child policy and they have created a highly distorted population distribution with very few tax payers who can support the heavy burden of retirees. This is similar to what the developed world is facing (even with immigration) but to much more severe extent. If they kept with a one-child policy they would have an economic collapse.

The idiocy is that the commies couldn't be bothered to even run simple population dynamics models to try to set a window for the one-child policy and prevent an over-shoot. Like the usual commie meat-heads they just kept the boot on the neck of the population indefinitely. A sarcastic saying from Russia on this commie syndrome is: if you have strength, then you do not need a mind (i.e. intellect).

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 13:16:04
by KaiserJeep
I would point out that population growth HAS TO STOP even if it creates such an imbalance. But the "One Child" policy was abandonned because it was unenforceble in rural areas, not because they changed their minds. Today, years after the policy was abandonned, they are having second thoughts.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 13:46:29
by EnergyUnlimited
@dissident,
That is why I have called it "general idiocy".
Means mindless introduction of certain policies leading to situation when opposite policies have to be introduced to prevent catastrophic outcome.
Eg. another incarnation of *Great War on Sparrows*.

@Ibon,
There is some truth in what you say, means that chinese corporations like to have chinese only command chain. That doesn't work well though, as countries with large Chinese minority populations are introducing laws *forcing* chinese companies to employ locals on top positions or else licenses to operate might be revoked.
My wife, who is Malaysian Chinese may tell much about it, eg her father's company was forced to employ few in her words "lazy pigs", eg Malay citizens, on high management positions and that regardless that they even "cannot read and write", so are entirely useless and hindrance only.
NB. I do not find it strange that they are illiterate in chinese - not the easiest language to learn, if you want to be *literate* in particular.
So Chinese are running their business very much like Jews do, they seem to fleece local populations of wealth and sometimes there are *pogroms* of them when enough is enough.
My wife's family had to run away to Singapore and stay there few months during such a pogrom, but somehow their property was spared and later they could come back.
About 20 years ago there were similar pogroms of Chinese in Indonesia when Suharto was overthrown.
And of course one of most famous pogroms of Chinese were organized by The Last King of Scotland, eg. Idi Amin of Uganda. They had to paint themselves black, if they wanted to stay and still there was a lot of harrasment.
So it will be a fierce competition between Jews and Chinese in the future. Jewish global empire based mainly on US influence faces fierce competition from Chinese newcomers.
However I still cannot agree that current u-turn in China policy has growth of empire in mind.
I think, their primary objection is to ameliorate self inflicted demographic catastrophe and threat of economic collapse.
It seems that regarless how inteligent Chinese might be, their style of governing is often leading to huge catastrophes with body counts running in tens of millions.
Are you aware that in 8 century AD they had a civil war with more than 13 millions of dead and they had other civil wars where there was more than 20 millions of dead?
https://www.businessinsider.com/bloodie ... 14-10?IR=T
Somehow, I doubt that Chinese will build global empire.
They are prone to an awful mismanagement and curent population woes are an example of that.
All what they will probably achieve is bringing American/Jewish empire down, but they are unlikely to be successors.
More likely multipolar world is going to result (or an atomic war if worst come to worst).

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 13:54:05
by EnergyUnlimited
KaiserJeep wrote:I would point out that population growth HAS TO STOP even if it creates such an imbalance. But the "One Child" policy was abandonned because it was unenforceble in rural areas, not because they changed their minds. Today, years after the policy was abandonned, they are having second thoughts.

Believe me, in China nearly anything and everything is enforceable.
However about once per 1-2 centuries or so civil wars on absolutely unheard of scale are resulting.
The reason of u-turn was not related to unenforceablity, as they have actually mostly succeeded.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sat 25 Aug 2018, 19:23:48
by dohboi
"commies"

Really?

ETA...well, yes, we must of course stop the commies, after all...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAHJCPoWCC8

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Sun 26 Aug 2018, 22:14:44
by dissident
KaiserJeep wrote:I would point out that population growth HAS TO STOP even if it creates such an imbalance. But the "One Child" policy was abandonned because it was unenforceble in rural areas, not because they changed their minds. Today, years after the policy was abandonned, they are having second thoughts.


That is a vapid claim. The one-child policy never had an end date. As for the "failure" in the rural areas, that is simply BS:

https://scholars.huji.ac.il/sites/defau ... y_2010.pdf

The occurrence of 2nd and 3rd births was associated with gender. And the deficit of females speaks to actual enforcement. If the enforcement was failing the 50/50 ratio would be maintained.

Re: General Idiocy in China - they are mulling "no child tax

Unread postPosted: Mon 27 Aug 2018, 07:13:52
by Newfie
China has roughly 1/16 per capita the aerable land area of the USA. Imagine the USA about 5.3 billion folks. That’s where China is today.

What is idioty is our global financial model that requires infinite growth.

This is just another curve in the LTG model, somewhere st sometime something will exceed what the system can tolerate, the system will destabilize and at that point the LTG model breaks down in chaos.

This may be a great reason to fear the Chinese. They may hit the wall first and god knows what that will look like. I’ve been fearing it would be the financial system that would hit the wall first, this may be the way it happens.

No matter how you look at it this is evidence that China is in a very tight position and is looking desperately for ways out. They may not exist.