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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Fri 17 Jan 2020, 16:23:13
by Tanada
ozcad wrote:Plant said:
China alone is on track to add the equivalent of all of Europe's coal production, with India adding still more and other developing countries piling in on top of that.

Agreed, but we (in Oz) may have more control over their coal use than they want us to realize. We currently enjoy digging it up and flogging it to them cheaply. We could refuse to sell them any coal beyond agreed emission targets. There would be some uncertain risk to our sense of well being.
With commercial interests controlling FF's in Oz, don't expect innovative politics, we are already captured.



Don't kid yourself. China buys Australian coal because it is cheap. Not only does China have a large domestic supply, India and Indonesia are both quite willing to export some of their resource to China for the right price. Australia can make any rules they want, but China is not a captive market and Coal is not yet as hard to come by as Petroleum as an export/import item.

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Wed 22 Jan 2020, 19:34:13
by dohboi
I know that daily figures aren't as important as longer-term trends, but...wow: Latest daily CO2 reading was 415.79 ppm, higher than at any date last year.

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Wed 22 Jan 2020, 20:54:37
by Tanada

Week beginning on January 12, 2020: 412.82 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 410.66 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 388.41 ppm

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Wed 22 Jan 2020, 20:57:15
by Tanada

January 21: 415.79 ppm
January 20: 413.25 ppm
January 19: 413.37 ppm
January 18: 413.39 ppm
January 17: 412.92 ppm

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Sun 26 Jan 2020, 10:18:05
by dohboi
The size of the annual CO2 rise depends on anthropogenic emissions and the strength of natural carbon sinks which are affected by climate variability. Our method uses a statistical relationship between the annual CO2 rise, anthropogenic CO2 emissions and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

We predict the rise between 2019 and 2020 will be similar to that between 2018 and 2019, which was larger than in the previous two years (Figure 2), because of relatively warm temperatures in the Niño3.4 region. Such "El Niño-like" conditions are generally associated with modified tropical weather patterns that make many land regions drier and reduce the ability of plants to grow and absorb CO2, temporarily reducing the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.



https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/c ... 2-forecast

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Sun 26 Jan 2020, 11:16:48
by Tanada

January 25: Unavailable
January 24: Unavailable
January 23: Unavailable
January 22: 414.08 ppm
January 21: 415.79 ppm

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 02:03:03
by jedrider
There doesn't appear to be any turning back. We need food on the table.

Japan Races to Build New Coal-Burning Power Plants, Despite the Climate Risks
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/climate/japan-coal-fukushima.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 12:41:15
by Tanada
February 03: Unavailable
February 02: 414.32 ppm
February 01: 414.49 ppm
January 31: 414.89 ppm
January 30: 413.95 ppm

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 12:42:07
by Tanada

Week beginning on January 26, 2020: 414.09 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 411.06 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 389.37 ppm

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 12:51:53
by vtsnowedin
Tanada wrote:
Week beginning on January 26, 2020: 414.09 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 411.06 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 389.37 ppm

Tanada do you have a handle on what percent of vehicles need to be switched to BEVs (exclusively charged by solar and wind power) for those CO2 numbers to start going down?

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 13:21:55
by Tanada
vtsnowedin wrote:
Tanada wrote:
Week beginning on January 26, 2020: 414.09 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 411.06 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 389.37 ppm

Tanada do you have a handle on what percent of vehicles need to be switched to BEVs (exclusively charged by solar and wind power) for those CO2 numbers to start going down?


To make a decline in annual numbers I presume? Let me put it this way,
1) ICE vehicles using liquid fuels for 99.9% of the cases today as BEV have made a minuscule impact at this point. Those ICE vehicles produce about 45% of world CO2 emissions with power production producing another 40% and direct heating/industrial processes producing about 15% of the total. Numbers are off the top of my head but are all within the ballpark.

2) CO2 sinks in the world as a whole presently absorb and retain about 38% of human caused emissions counting everything from forest fires to all those deliberate fossil fuel consuming activities.

3) This leaves a minimum gap of 62% reduction necessary to pause CO2 at the current level and at least 63% to start resulting in a decline.

4) 63%-45%=18% means if every ICE vehicle is replaced we are still increasing CO2 though at a substantially slower rate. Convert to 100% Renewables and Nuclear with no fossil fuel power production allowed and you can do another 18%-40%= -22% for a significant rate of CO2 possible reduction.

5) Unfortunately in the last 15 years that I have been tracking these numbers the trend has been very firmly in the opposite direction. Politicians in the west continue to encourage the shuttering of fully functional nuclear power stations replacing them with Natural Gas or even worse Coal combustion. They also discourage the construction of a fleet of next generation nuclear power to offset the growth in population and demand as formerly backward nations create an electrical supply for their vast populations. Even worse, if that is possible, the world fleet of ICE powered vehicles has been increasing in leaps and bounds. It is fine to say the rate of increase in China has slowed, but that doesn't mean a lot when the nation went from about 1.2 million ICE vehicles in 2005 to almost 60 Million in 2019. India has also greatly increased their number of ICE vehicles though not quite as spectacularly as China. Meanwhile in the USA/Canada the growth rate of ICE vehicles continues to pace the population increase despite all claims that we had peaked and were in decline during the Obama Administration.

For these reasons I continue to urge a strategy of adaptation. Humans are combustion loving apes. If we find something flammable sooner or later we put it to the torch, and that goes double for cheap things like fossil fuels that make life more comfortable in the short term.

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 13:46:43
by vtsnowedin
We certainly will have to adapt but fortunately humans are good at that. I see BEVs as a snowballing trend along with solar PV farms and roof top installations. It will take twenty years or more to turn over the actively being driven fleet but all , progress in that direction is progress. Even converting coal electric plants to natural gas makes a significant improvement.
I watched a YouTube video yesterday where they took a group of available BEVs and drove them through a full charge to see what percentage of claimed range they could actually deliver in the UK. All did pretty well with the Tesla S going the furthest but all delivering better then 80% of claimed in actually highway driving at night in colder then optimum temperatures. All were viable replacements for ICE sedans.

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 23:33:26
by dissident
The only hope is electrification of transport and heating. And that requires nuclear power. Go ahead and deploy all the solar cells and wind turbines and tidal plants, but the response has to scale. Right now all the politically correct alternatives are boutique sideshow "solutions of the future". Time to act and not wait.

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Tue 04 Feb 2020, 23:39:06
by vtsnowedin
dissident wrote:The only hope is electrification of transport and heating. And that requires nuclear power. Go ahead and deploy all the solar cells and wind turbines and tidal plants, but the response has to scale. Right now all the politically correct alternatives are boutique sideshow "solutions of the future". Time to act and not wait.

OK what actions do you propose?

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Feb 2020, 11:00:50
by dohboi
It all becomes easier if we vastly reduce demand, of course.

Coronavirus may be doing some of that for us now, and unfortunately, that may be about the only way it happens, outside of a global economic collapse (which may be coming soon, too). It would be nice if we were wise enough to do such reductions in a more rational and egalitarian way purposefully, rather than having it thrust upon us by grim, deadly circumstance.

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Wed 05 Feb 2020, 12:06:11
by Cog
Maybe Senator Warren should stop flying on private jets all over the country. But of course rules for us and rules for them.

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Thu 06 Feb 2020, 01:57:28
by careinke
Cog wrote:Maybe Senator Warren should stop flying on private jets all over the country. But of course rules for us and rules for them.


Well, she tried to get an "Air Force Three." Then we could pay for that too. :(

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Thu 20 Feb 2020, 21:42:40
by Tanada

January 2020: 413.40 ppm
January 2019: 410.83 ppm

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Thu 20 Feb 2020, 21:43:43
by Tanada

Week beginning on February 9, 2020: 414.40 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 412.70 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 390.32 ppm

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postPosted: Thu 20 Feb 2020, 21:44:19
by Tanada

February 19: 413.53 ppm
February 18: 413.56 ppm
February 17: 413.85 ppm
February 16: 413.81 ppm
February 15: 413.05 ppm