climate change "existential" threat to humanity
Posted: Thu 19 Oct 2017, 22:35:56
“Scripps Study (There’s A Chance Climate Change Can Wipe Out Humans By 2050)”
http://www.kpbs.org/news/2017/sep/15/sc ... e-can-wip/
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/new ... story.html
Just happens on the same date that story broke, the local newspaper also published an idiotic “op-ed” on management of public pensions portfolios (FYI used the term idiotic because the math/logic did not make sense, and just to be sure I checked with an actuary),... I've posted the op-ed as a (highlighted) PDF at google-docs (and used a “redirect”) so you can read everything for yourself
http://www.TinyURL.com/PensionRebuttal
At first the concept of climate change and public pensions might seem unrelated but “Economics and Finance” is a common factor.
Some background,... back in the day Roger Revelle (@ UCSD) taught a class that I took which was designed to look at a problem from from different points of view
Anyway during a discussion he mentioned the big unknown [AT THE TIME] was aerosols (i.e. water vapor AKA “clouds”) which varied albedo/reflectivity,... that in turn has an influence on the environment (i.e. temperature)
Years after taking the class, read about “global dimming”
Matter of fact the same guy (Ramanathan) who wrote the recent scripps report (mentioned in the news)
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-clima ... al-threats
wrote (years ago) a paper on the topic of “dimming”
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... -6475-3_94
(for context see “NOVA” PBS transcript where "Ramanathan" appears)
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/3310_sun.html
Basically the way public pension portfolios are managed and the way the scripps report presented itself, I sense trouble ahead because of an idea from investing,... the “margin of safety”
https://www.amazon.com/Margin-Safety-Ri ... 0887305105
As related to the idea of an “Existential” threat; there are huge downside consequence of mis-managing climate change (like wise w/ public pension portfolios),... point being various short term “gain” payoff(s) (for a select few) are an over all gamble (WRT “punishments”) for society/civilization as a whole
In other words, each “crisis” requires resources to fix. Depleting various resources weakens the system (so after a crisis the system is more vulnerable)
So the big question is what happens if various public pensions “fail” and severely weakens the (global) economy? Then shortly thereafter climate change requires large amounts of political, social and/or financial capital to build up various infrastructure (for human beings to adapt)?
Thoughts???
http://www.kpbs.org/news/2017/sep/15/sc ... e-can-wip/
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/new ... story.html
Just happens on the same date that story broke, the local newspaper also published an idiotic “op-ed” on management of public pensions portfolios (FYI used the term idiotic because the math/logic did not make sense, and just to be sure I checked with an actuary),... I've posted the op-ed as a (highlighted) PDF at google-docs (and used a “redirect”) so you can read everything for yourself
http://www.TinyURL.com/PensionRebuttal
At first the concept of climate change and public pensions might seem unrelated but “Economics and Finance” is a common factor.
Some background,... back in the day Roger Revelle (@ UCSD) taught a class that I took which was designed to look at a problem from from different points of view
Anyway during a discussion he mentioned the big unknown [AT THE TIME] was aerosols (i.e. water vapor AKA “clouds”) which varied albedo/reflectivity,... that in turn has an influence on the environment (i.e. temperature)
Years after taking the class, read about “global dimming”
Matter of fact the same guy (Ramanathan) who wrote the recent scripps report (mentioned in the news)
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-clima ... al-threats
wrote (years ago) a paper on the topic of “dimming”
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... -6475-3_94
(for context see “NOVA” PBS transcript where "Ramanathan" appears)
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/3310_sun.html
Basically the way public pension portfolios are managed and the way the scripps report presented itself, I sense trouble ahead because of an idea from investing,... the “margin of safety”
https://www.amazon.com/Margin-Safety-Ri ... 0887305105
As related to the idea of an “Existential” threat; there are huge downside consequence of mis-managing climate change (like wise w/ public pension portfolios),... point being various short term “gain” payoff(s) (for a select few) are an over all gamble (WRT “punishments”) for society/civilization as a whole
In other words, each “crisis” requires resources to fix. Depleting various resources weakens the system (so after a crisis the system is more vulnerable)
So the big question is what happens if various public pensions “fail” and severely weakens the (global) economy? Then shortly thereafter climate change requires large amounts of political, social and/or financial capital to build up various infrastructure (for human beings to adapt)?
Thoughts???