Military Climate Studies Links
Posted: Tue 11 Oct 2016, 21:14:43
TANDA.....any chance you could stick this list in Archives and Resources?
VOX....many thanks
VOX....many thanks
vox_mundi wrote:Newfie wrote:Maybe someone with time to kill could post those links in Archives and Resources?
I heard a guy on NPR yesterday saying that the US Military has a 70%ish trust rating. The only public organization to have a positive rating.
I'm not exactly killing time, but here's a couple. The Navy and Joint Chiefs have a number of studies. Also, the British Ministry of Defense (MOD) and Australian Defence Force (ADF) have a number of studies. SwissRe, MunichRe, Chatham House, CNAS, the WorldBank, PriceWaterCooper and several other independent think tanks are keeping current on the subject.
When I have more time I'll put together a better list.
DNI/NIC: Implications for US National Security of Anticipated Climate Change (2016)
DoD: National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate (2015)
CIA/PNAS: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises (2013) Briefing Slides
DNI/NIC: Global Food Security (2015)
DNI/NIC: Global Food Security: Emerging Technologies to 2040
DNI/NIC: Global Food Security: Key Drivers—A Conference Report (2012)
DNI/NIC: Global Water Security (2012)
DNI/NIC: Natural Resources in 2020, 2030, and 2040: Implications for the United States (2013)The major assumption underpinning this analysis is that mounting prosperity in both the developed and the developing world will continue to drive increased consumer demand for key resources. At the same time, constraints in energy, water, and other critical natural resources and infrastructure, together with socio-economic shifts, will bring new and hard-to-manage instabilities. There will be an increasing risk of discontinuous and systemic shocks to 2040 as a consequence of these factors.The Bottom Line: At the aggregate level, there are significant scarcity challenges for a number of key natural resources with potential impact on US security.
Markets for agricultural commodities will remain tight through to 2020 and probably to 2030, with maize experiencing the largest increase in prices. Significant wheat production occurs in water-stressed and climate vulnerable regions in Asia (China, India, Pakistan, and Australia); markets therefore will remain susceptible to harvest shocks. Markets for oil likely will remain tight to 2020, and natural gas markets in certain regions may have constrained supplies.
Commodity price shocks will afflict a wide range of consuming countries with weak governance regimes or high income inequality (Afghanistan, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Pakistan, Somalia, and Ukraine).
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Energy. Markets for oil likely will remain tight and volatile to 2020. In the absence of ambitious policies on efficiency and deployment of new technology, or significant production from unconventional sources, severe shortages of oil between 2025 and 2030 would prompt emergency measures to reduce demand and to switch fuels in major importing countries.
DNI/NIC = Director National Intelligence/National Intelligence Council Publications