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Feedback from the situation in the Arctic and from the oceans becoming more sources than sinks along with the dimming effect set to disappear once civilization begins to wither, I think surely mean that 2C is a fantasy. Along also with humanities incapacity and unwillingness to disengage from burning FF.

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the thing which irk me the most about Porn-doomers is the repeated mantra that people can fix it if they change
people can no more change anything to their behavior as lemmings do .
there are very good reasons for it ,
behavior change last, well after body evolution

Agreed, which is why 2-3° is baked in, certain.

All we can really expect to do is to try to figure out how to survive.

Sort of like musical chairs except 90% of the chairs will suddenly be withdrawn, and the standees get no food thereafter.

Newfie wrote:Agreed, which is why 2-3° is baked in, certain.

All we can really expect to do is to try to figure out how to survive.

Sort of like musical chairs except 90% of the chairs will suddenly be withdrawn, and the standees get no food thereafter.

I suspect war will empty a lot of those standing well before starvation does them in directly. Once people do start starving diseases will thrive against the weakened immune systems and take out another swath. There is a reason the four horsemen of the Apocalypse are pictured as Famine, War and Pestilence lead by Death.

People, of course, massively and fundamentally change their behavior all the time.

Not too long ago, nobody spent any time on a personal computer or cell phone; now nearly everyone who has the means to do so does. This is a massive and fundamental shift in daily behavior that took place over a very few years/decades.

For a while (and still for many), millions of people suddenly stopped eating what had for millennia been considered 'the staff of life'...bread. And for no particularly compelling or legitimate reason.

One way or the other, in the coming years, we are all going to be changing our behaviors rather drastically. The only question is if we want to get ahead of the curve a bit.

But the change part is absolutely inevitable, so saying it's impossible is really pretty silly.

Nicely put. So how do incentivize the incentivizers!!??

Dohboi,
I'm in the Bahamas, here they drive on the left side, so I changed my behavioir to drive on the left side.

If you hold someone's head underwater for a prolonged time he will strive lightly to make you let go so he can breath. That is a behavioir that one can not change. It's a reflex, as is sex, as is eating, and our desire to accumulate and reproduce.

Take an intermediate set of behaviors. How hard is it for someone to loose weight? Even if they have advanced diabetes and have lost a foot? How hard is it to kick an addiction? How hard is it to give up our addiction to our fossil fuel slaves and go back to tilling he soil behind a mule?

dohboi wrote:Nicely put. So how do incentivize the incentivizers!!??

Well Baha has shown it can be done. So I guess you could follow his example and change your lifestyle. How's that going?

(Sorry, OT...but have you seen the news about all the icebergs heading for Newfoundland, Newf? Seems like news you would be interested in!)

It turns out that if you make it cheaper, it is actually pretty easy to change someone's behavior from using lots of fossil fuels to using more efficient devices and vehicles, and powering them with renewables!



(Uh oh...this post is going to get banished to my "Happy Talk" thread any minute now!! )

baha wrote:Good point DB,
The question becomes how do we incentivize the masses to view 'reduce, reuse, recycle' as a desirable activity that we all pursue.

Carrots or sticks. I haven't seen carrots work too well. When they don't, sticks should be applied.

A big AGW (i.e. CO2) tax on FF's would be an example of that. (And it could be revenue neutral).

Now all we need are politicians with the guts to use the sticks. Sadly, with the current system where getting re-elected trumps all, we need to take sticks to politicians who won't do the right thing. But the voters won't do that.

Plantagenet wrote:

dohboi wrote:We are officially on track to hit 5 to 6 degrees by the end of this century. The deals being cut in Paris would reduce that to 3 - 3.5.

Not according to the IPCC. The IPCC says the Paris treaty will have ZERO effect, i.e. we will still hit 5-6° C.

MIT also ran the numbers, and they estimate a T reduction of 0.2°C from the Paris accord, i.e. 4.8-5.8° C by 2100.

Of course those people are just scientists-----I bet if Obama cut their funding a bit and they'd change those numbers to what Obama wants to hear.

AND of course thats also assuming every country meets its voluntary targets. Judging from the way almost every nation failed to keep their targets under the voluntary Kyoto Accord---thats highly unlikely.

CHEERS!

Watch the video at the link, I promise it isn't too long for even an ADD sufferer to pay attention to.

https://youtu.be/47bNzLj5E_Q

baha wrote:We just need a responsible leader

Which won't happen because people will not in vote a leader who will turn around and tell them things they don't wanna hear. The closest we came was Carter and politics still hasn't recovered from the shock and horror of the sweater speech. And Trump is in many ways a response to what the right perceived as "overreach" from Obama with the EPA and Paris agreements.

baha wrote:Or we could all take it upon ourselves to do the right thing. Problem is most people's view of the right thing is the result of the existing propaganda.

No. People's view of the right thing is the result of their own ignorance and tragedy of the commons.

And what is doing the right thing at this point? We're firmly in Al Bartlett's right hand list at this point.

That is a good plan Baha. You didn't mention community ties which is suppose you are working on. The weakness of your plan is being tied to one place. All plans have some weakness, there is no perfect plan. But you need to recognize that weakness, lack of flexibility, analyze it, and try to minimize it.

Best of luck.

Tell me about it. Our boat is a floating tool box. Even got a little inverter welder. Can't do much but can scare some folks!

Plastic boat, gas engine, propane fuel, heavy electrical loads.

Steel boat, Diesel engine, kerosene fuel, light electrical loads.

Big risk difference.