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Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Wed 09 Jan 2019, 03:07:22
by asg70
pstarr wrote:Once again, science eludes you.


The point eludes you. If you're such a gambler at heart, put your money where your mouth is and go over there for a while. Revel in the "harmless" irradiated goodness and then check back with us. I mean, it's probably gonna be a far safer doomstead than the redwood curtain if you really think the radiation is safe.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Sat 12 Jan 2019, 21:22:16
by Revi
We are having a pretty typical winter so far in Maine, but I have heard that Detroit was yet to have a major snowfall earlier in the month. We are teetering on the edge of a climate catastrophe. Anyone who doesn't think so has their head so far up their butt they can't see anything.
The ocean is warming up quicker here than most places on the planet. I heard that 2018 may not have been the warmest air temperature wise, but the oceans are warmer than ever before. A new record! Oceans hold something like 80% of the warming we have produced so far. They warm up really slowly and take just as long to cool. Even with our normal cold winter this year the water temp in the gulf of Maine is still 3 degrees warmer than normal. I don't agree with Dr. McPherson on the near term extinction, but I can see that it's going to get nasty soon. Imaging a category 5 hurricane making it to NYC on the wings of much warmer water. See what I mean?

Elite prepping

Unread postPosted: Sun 13 Jan 2019, 15:28:22
by Whitefang
I remember Guy saying that the elite knows and are prepping for the end of the world as we know it.

One of the best intervieuws of a former top employee of the top 8000:

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=du ... ORM=VDRVRV

oops, bing video, Maybe YouTube works better, Anyway...Ronald Bernard.

Story about a US general with a lighter in a dark room....one light can enlight, truly enlighten, light up the darkness for those that live their lives in boredom/habit, without magic, eyes accustomed to the dark.
So thank you Bernard for sharing this and not giving in to those that do terrible things.
Child sacrifice for them is a way to bind people, he said no, he refused and they let him go after some torture.
He died and came back in a hospital after his body crashed, found out that he is more than his body.
That is his reward after surviving his ordeal.
Darkness has no way to get us if we refuse it, we might wake up to the real world.
We humans have so much power and options that we do not use, such a bummer.

Eyes wide shut, a docudrama from Kubrick?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyes_Wide_Shut

I do not mind people doing the sex/dope/party thing, all ok with me.
If they are wiping out traces banksters, they must be convinced the end of the global economy, free markets has come.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Sun 13 Jan 2019, 16:37:23
by Revi
I don't know about what Guy is talking about, but I have a friend, who I met when I was showing my film, Peak Oil: A Love Story. He was one of the few who showed up. He showed up because of the title. He does earthwork in Western Maine and one day he asked a client who is a big oil guy why he was clearing up an old intervale farm. He replied that he wants to have a place to bug out to when it gets nasty. I guess the idea is that it's close to the Canadian border, and it's an isolated farmstead, surrounded by mountains for when it gets nasty. And he wasn't his only cusomer who was preparing a bug out spot.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Sun 13 Jan 2019, 23:54:10
by Cid_Yama
We are teetering on the edge of a climate catastrophe. Anyone who doesn't think so has their head so far up their butt they can't see anything.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: +1

Arctic Warm Wedge

Unread postPosted: Fri 18 Jan 2019, 16:39:00
by Whitefang
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 364,71.744

Heat is beyond the end of the world, Yamal peninsula and Wrangell Island, both still freezing but only around minus 10 degrees Celcius. I think the firework really starts when the warmth from the pacific meets the heat from the Atlantic.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

On the positive side, Kara sea looks fine, Spitsbergen East is frozen, we might still be ok for the next 2 or 3 years.
Even Holland is freezing, looking forward to snow on the Belgian Ardennes to test my winter gear.

Guy thinks we will be falling into the abrupt CC abyss when the polar vortex is history, I agree with him, was it Richard Abbey that told us a 10 degree temperature increase a year is possible? After a phase change, from ice to water, solid Vortex and atmosphere to a chaotic dynamic system, fluid as can be.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 Jan 2019, 15:45:20
by dohboi
One of the linchpins of Guy's thesis is that the cooling effect of aerosols is more like 2 degrees C or higher, rather than the .5 degrees that has become the more recent consensus. But he may, sadly turn out to be closer to right on this point afterall:


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 104611.htm

"New research shows that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, necessitating a recalculation of climate change models to more accurately predict the pace of global warming."

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Wed 23 Jan 2019, 17:29:27
by Plantagenet
dohboi wrote:One of the linchpins of Guy's thesis is that the cooling effect of aerosols is more like 2 degrees C or higher, rather than the .5 degrees that has become the more recent consensus. But he may, sadly turn out to be closer to right on this point afterall:


https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 104611.htm

"New research shows that the degree to which aerosols cool the earth has been grossly underestimated, necessitating a recalculation of climate change models to more accurately predict the pace of global warming."


Yup. I saw that too.

Guy seems to have a very good understanding of the way things work in the climate system, even if he's not a climate scientist himself.

The implication of this all is very important. If aerosols from diesel and coal use are actually COOLING the planet, then closing coal plants and switching to EVS and getting carbon out of the system would quickly reduce the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, producing an almost immediate INCREASE in global temperature of 1-2°C.

Now we can't keep pumping out CO2 into the atmosphere, and we can't stop doing things that pump out CO2 into the atmosphere.

Image
Its like Catch-22, but on a global scale.

Cheers!

Dammed if you do......and do not

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Jan 2019, 11:11:59
by Whitefang
The effects of GW, result of CO2 in our atmosphere takes a long time to show up on the temperature scale, as most energy goes into the oceans and it takes a long time to heat up water, salt and sweet.
Why would the temperature increase of lack of aerosols be immediate, ok, almost immediate?
I wanted to ask that weeks ago, now is the ideal opportunity.


The implication of this all is very important. If aerosols from diesel and coal use are actually COOLING the planet, then closing coal plants and switching to EVS and getting carbon out of the system would quickly reduce the number of aerosols in the atmosphere, producing an almost immediate INCREASE in global temperature of 1-2°C.


If true then we should do all to keep our dirty shield intact, as long as possible and the more the better, the negative effects of warming will come later and do not matter since all those feedbacks will dwarf the extra CO2 input.
The extra earosols will make air low quality in industrial area's, big cities, so an extra reason to move outdoors, for your health.
The extra soot will make glaciers even more fragile, sea ice as well...........


A positive effect of something bad, tricky thing is what it is 8O

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Jan 2019, 13:19:44
by jedrider
Whitefang wrote:Why would the temperature increase of lack of aerosols be immediate, ok, almost immediate?
I wanted to ask that weeks ago, now is the ideal opportunity.


That terminology is confusing at best. I presume that Guy thinks that the masking effect of aerosols is quite significant and greater than the heat trapping effect of CO2. So, you release some CO2 and the effect takes a long time to be felt (also because it is lesser to begin with). Now, if we were to compare the effect of some CO2 released now versus some aerosol released now, but in a hundred years or more, well the CO2 is still present later while the aerosol needs to be continually replenished.

aerosols

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Jan 2019, 16:18:32
by Whitefang
Thanks Jed,

Linky from Doh,

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 104611.htm

As for the first, clouds form when wind rises and cools. However, cloud composition is largely determined by aerosols. The more aerosol particles a shallow cloud contains, the more small water droplets it will hold. Rain happens when these droplets bind together. Since it takes longer for small droplets to bind together than it does for large droplets, aerosol-filled or "polluted" clouds contain more water, live in the sky longer (while they wait for droplets to bind and rain to fall, after which the clouds will dissipate) and cover a greater area. All the while, the aerosol-laden clouds reflect more solar energy back into space, thereby cooling the Earth's overall temperature.
To what extent do aerosols cool down our environment? To date, all estimates were unreliable because it was impossible to separate the effects of rising winds which create the clouds, from the effects of aerosols which determine their composition. Until now.
Rosenfeld and his colleague Yannian Zhu from the Meteorological Institute of Shaanxi Province in China developed a new method that uses satellite images to separately calculate the effect of vertical winds and aerosol cloud droplet numbers. They applied this methodology to low-lying cloud cover above the world's oceans between the Equator and 40S. With this new method, Rosenfeld and his colleagues were able to more accurately calculate aerosols' cooling effects on the Earth's energy budget. And, they discovered that aerosols' cooling effect is nearly twice higher than previously thought.



So aerosols are in the game for being indispensible for cloud cover, dirty clouds holding more water and reflecting energy back in space, but then watervapour is a greenhouse gas. But let us say they conclude twice the cooling effect that the scientists last decade thought. Does less aerosols mean less clouds less reflection and instant heating up to the warming of 400 plus ppm CO2?


I think the game here is to buy time facing abrupt irriversible CC, less time it takes to go through college........
In that case it does not matter what the extra CO2 does in a hunderd years from now :oops:
Maybe chemtrials could buy some, but hurt as well.
Plant trees, go green, excellent exersize.
Ramp up on those irty coal fired power plants, burn baby, burn 8)

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Jan 2019, 18:06:50
by vtsnowedin
No matter how bad the climate changes it will still be a hundred times better here on planet earth then it will ever be on Mars so we will just have to adapt to what we get and deal with the reality whatever it turns out to be. We can build climate controlled biospheres here that sustain us and as many species as possible a lot cheaper the anything we have to launch into space. We wont have enough resources to provide for seven or nine billion people but there will most certainly be lots of survivors a century or two from now.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Jan 2019, 18:36:28
by jedrider
vtsnowedin wrote:No matter how bad the climate changes it will still be a hundred times better here on planet earth then it will ever be on Mars so we will just have to adapt to what we get and deal with the reality whatever it turns out to be. We can build climate controlled biospheres here that sustain us and as many species as possible a lot cheaper the anything we have to launch into space. We wont have enough resources to provide for seven or nine billion people but there will most certainly be lots of survivors a century or two from now.


Astronauts on mission to Mars accidentally cross a time warp in space and have to make an emergency landing back to Earth. They wind up in Kansas, a hundred years hence. Will they survive? For how long? Could make a good movie 'Mission to Kansas'.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Thu 24 Jan 2019, 18:50:37
by vtsnowedin
jedrider wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:No matter how bad the climate changes it will still be a hundred times better here on planet earth then it will ever be on Mars so we will just have to adapt to what we get and deal with the reality whatever it turns out to be. We can build climate controlled biospheres here that sustain us and as many species as possible a lot cheaper the anything we have to launch into space. We wont have enough resources to provide for seven or nine billion people but there will most certainly be lots of survivors a century or two from now.


Astronauts on mission to Mars accidentally cross a time warp in space and have to make an emergency landing back to Earth. They wind up in Kansas, a hundred years hence. Will they survive? For how long? Could make a good movie 'Mission to Kansas'.

Kansas ain't ever been easy!

Kansas going bye bye...

Unread postPosted: Fri 25 Jan 2019, 05:05:49
by Whitefang
Weren't Kansas going bye bye in that Matrix movie?

Just saw Interstellar, Earth going into a dustbowl with abrupt CC leading to loss of harvest, manned missions to Saturnus time warp space portal to other constellations with 3 possible planets to live. HUmans on Earth left behind but info from dark hole, not your butt, saves the day and they leave in large machine for a new home.

IO movie on Netflix, the last to stay or leave.
Interesting scene on Plato symposium, true love made of human beings split in two parts, physical and spiritual body, forever longing for eachother after the fall, expelled from that garden after munching on that apple, knowledge. The greatest love story.
When born we are close to our spirit, other side what we are, then loose contact and maybe reach it again.

https://bgr.com/2019/01/22/netflix-io-m ... -the-film/


Okay, machines are not going to help here, no matter how many and complex, what we are stuck with is our perception of what is real, we can travel and be, live in other worlds by using our bodies, physical and spiritual in a more efficient way.
A more strategic way, let this world be a steppingstone into the unknown.

Just saying that there are so many leave the Earth movies lately....
I do think, agree we have to make do with mother Earth, that giant being that gives us shelter, food and everything we need, for free.

Re: aerosols

Unread postPosted: Sat 26 Jan 2019, 16:58:11
by jedrider


Title and Subtitle from that article:

We need to rethink everything we know about global warming
New calculations show scientists have grossly underestimated the effects of air pollution


Got me to thinking that I remember deniers always sprinkling, indeed 'facts', that climate change happened in the 1930's with the dust bowl and temperature records.

I've always thought, yeah, of course, global dimming was greatly diminished during that time period. If that was the results back then, then imagine what will happen if such a depression recurs, and it will. Of course, governments and bankers have learned how to get away with printing money since then, but they will not always be successful. Dust bowl conditions, i.e. the drying out of the west is already occurring now even with global dimming - thank you China, and for all that plastic as well.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Sat 26 Jan 2019, 18:47:51
by dissident
BTW, aerosols account for about 8 C of the temperature in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) on the positive side. They have a cooling effect mostly from sulfate in the upper troposphere and stratosphere (Jung layer). Global shipping emits an enormous amount of sulfate and it is likely that the net contribution is cooling as with the 1950s and 1960s pollution period that led to global dimming. The PBL is full of all sorts of particulate including dust and sea salt which was there before any anthropogenic influence.

The 0.5 C net effect calculation has enormous error bars and cannot be taken at face value.

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Sat 26 Jan 2019, 22:14:28
by jupiters_release
dissident,

You know anything about degradation of the ozone layer and the entry of solar ultraviolet C light onto the earth's surface?

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Sat 26 Jan 2019, 23:10:05
by dohboi
Another development that may be about to tip us into accelerated heating:

Plants are Losing Their Capacity to Absorb Human CO2 Emissions
A team of Columbia researchers finds that the climate tipping point may come sooner than we think.


https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/arti ... 3_BkY8t8BY

A new report published Wednesday in Nature suggests that Earth’s vegetation may not be able to continue to absorb human carbon dioxide emissions at current rates, which could accelerate climate change and exacerbate its effects.

Humans pump nearly 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year and about 50 percent of these emissions are absorbed by plants in the terrestrial and ocean biospheres. The negative effects of the large amounts of carbon dioxide being absorbed by Earth’s vegetation can be seen in unprecedented coral bleaching events and the acidification of the ocean.

Although carbon dioxide is necessary for plants to grow, there is a limit to how much CO2 they can absorb. According to the lead authors of the new study, Columbia University environmental engineer Pierre Gentine and his doctoral student Julia Green, the impact of extreme events like droughts and floods on soil are decreasing the amount of CO2 that Earth’s vegetation an absorb...

Re: Guy McPherson

Unread postPosted: Tue 29 Jan 2019, 09:52:55
by onlooker
Well this is the scenario that Guy probably foresees leading to a Mass Extinction Event within the next few years.
Humanity is facing the final, western corporate capitalist, fossil fuel initiated, catastrophic Arctic methane hydrate destabilization and Permian style methane blowout - firestorm that will culminate in 1 to 8 years (2020 to 2027). 



https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/0 ... J4TGWcKQyk