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Tropics Expand

Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 13:30:08

“THE PROMISE of food lies in the tropics,” the UN Food and Agriculture Organization director general said at the University of the Philippines. “Here in this sun-drenched belt of land, temperature is benign and rainfall abundant. These could be the food granaries for the world of our children.”

Not anymore. Rising temperatures have widened the “Tropical Belt,” notes Nature Geoscience. Since the FAO official delivered his address in Los Baños in May 1979, the tropics expanded by between 2 and 4.8 degrees latitude. As the world warms, edges of the “Belt”—outer boundaries of the subtropical dry zones—drift toward the poles.

Temperature and rainfall changes are altering yields. Affected are politically volatile crops like corn and rice. “In the Philippines, rice yields drop by 10 percent for every one degree centigrade increase in night-time temperature,” BBC’s environment correspondent Richard Black writes.

The slump is region-wide. As droughts dry reservoirs, yields have fallen by 10 to 20 percent over the last 25 years. More declines are ahead.

“We found that as the daily minimum temperature increases, or as nights get hotter, rice yields drop,” researcher Jarrod Welch said. “Where temperature increases more than 3 °C, impacts are stressful to all crops and in all regions,” the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded.

There are biological limits to what can be done. “We can’t just move all our crops north or south because a lot of crops are photosensitive,” notes Dr. Geoff Hawtin at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture. “Flowering is triggered by day length.”

We don’t know where the tipping points are,” Hawtin adds. “They could come quite quickly.”

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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 14:32:55

Let's keep it simple.

The tropic of Cancer is the line that is north of the equator which is the further point north at which the sun will appear directly overhead.

The tropic of Capricorn is the line that south of equator - and repeat.

So the "tropics" or "tropical belt" is the region of the Earth between these two extremes.

And, axiomatically, given that the two extremes are determines by the tilt of the axis of the earth relative to the plane of revolution of the earth around the sun, the scope of the tropics is independent of climate and have not changed unless the tilt of the earth has changed.

But I guess when the Climate Change Cult wants to grab a headline, science is unimportant. Also, science can be disregarded if it is produced by non-members (see emails).
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby fonzcad3 » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 15:19:24

I love it how instead of addressing the crux of the article - that increasing temperatures are leading to unfavorable weather for agriculture in an enlarged section of the planet - you resort to a tautological argument about the meaning of the word "tropic".

You do understand that in the human vernacular, the word "tropic" has two meanings. One of them is the scientific meaning. The other, as in "tropical weather" is a descriptor to describe what historically has been the weather in the region known as the tropics.

What this article is pointing out is that the weather common to tropical and sub tropical zone is migrating to the north in the northern hemi and to the south in the southern hemi.

This is exactly the kind of obfuscation that climate change skeptics use to confuse and belittle the intelligence of the general public.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby eXpat » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 16:00:40

fonzcad3 wrote:I love it how instead of addressing the crux of the article - that increasing temperatures are leading to unfavorable weather for agriculture in an enlarged section of the planet - you resort to a tautological argument about the meaning of the word "tropic".

You do understand that in the human vernacular, the word "tropic" has two meanings. One of them is the scientific meaning. The other, as in "tropical weather" is a descriptor to describe what historically has been the weather in the region known as the tropics.

What this article is pointing out is that the weather common to tropical and sub tropical zone is migrating to the north in the northern hemi and to the south in the southern hemi.

This is exactly the kind of obfuscation that climate change skeptics use to confuse and belittle the intelligence of the general public.

Is called trolling! :) I´m surprised that it hasn't been discussed yet the Greek and Latin roots of the word, maybe the climate change deniers will leave that for a future post. :evil: Anything to distract attention from the crux of the problem: Climate Change.
The expansion of the tropics is part of the successful endeavour of human greed in geoengineering the planet, this week the World Meteorological Organization recognized that such is the case.
With weather extremes, 'there is no time to waste'
...
Skeptics charge that climate change theory is politically motivated. Some say the evidence that human activity contributes to warming is flawed, and some attribute warming to natural cycles.

But the U.N.’s network of climate scientists — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — has long predicted that rising global temperatures would produce more frequent and intense heat waves and more intense rainfalls.

Climatologists generally refrain from blaming warming for this drought or that flood, because many other factors also affect the day’s weather.

Stott and NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies in New York, said it’s better to think in terms of odds: The chances for heat waves might be doubled, for example. “That is exactly what’s happening,” Schmidt said, “a lot more warm extremes and less cold extremes.”

The World Meteorological Organization pointed out that this summer’s events fit the international scientists’ projections of “more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming.”

http://www.kansascity.com/2010/08/12/2146621/with-weather-extremes-there-is.html
UNITED NATIONS -- Devastating flooding that has swamped one-fifth of Pakistan and left millions homeless is likely the worst natural disaster to date attributable to climate change, U.N. officials and climatologists are now openly saying.
Most experts are still cautioning against tying any specific event directly to emissions of greenhouse gases. But scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva say there's no doubt that higher Atlantic Ocean temperatures contributed to the disaster begun late last month.

Atmospheric anomalies that led to the floods are also directly related to the same weather phenomena that a caused the record heat wave in Russia and flooding and mudslides in western China, said Ghassem Asrar, director of the World Climate Research Programme and WMO. And if the forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are correct, then Pakistan's misery is just a sign of more to come, said Asrar.

"There's no doubt that clearly the climate change is contributing, a major contributing factor," Asrar said in an interview. "We cannot definitely use one case to kind of establish precedents, but there are a few facts that point towards climate change as having to do with this."

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/08/18/18climatewire-pakistan----a-sad-new-benchmark-in-climate-re-4283.html
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 17:21:56

In the very article quoted it defines the "tropical belt," Where the "edges of the Belt” are the outer boundaries of the subtropical dry zones.

Here is the actual article from Nature Geoscience.

Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate

And, of course, this is also happening faster than projected. The IPCC predicted a 2 degree latitude expansion by 2100. It has actually expanded several degrees since 1979.
The observed recent rate of expansion is greater than climate model projections of expansion over the twenty-first century.

As summarized in Box 1, several recent studies found that in climate model simulations the jet streams and the associated wind and precipitation patterns tend to move poleward under global warming. As the jet streams are indicators of the poleward limits of the tropics, this implies that the tropics will expand as the Earth warms. Based on these studies, it appears that climate forcings over the twenty-first century would be expected to lead to an expansion of the tropics by as much as 2 degrees latitude.

Remarkably, the tropics appear to have already expanded — during only the last few decades of the twentieth century — by at least the same margin as models predict for this century. Several recent studies, using independent datasets, show robust trends in different measures of the width of the tropical belt. Based on five different types of measurement, they find a widening of several degrees latitude since 1979.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:05:09

fonzcad3 wrote:I love it how instead of addressing the crux of the article . . .

This is exactly the kind of obfuscation that climate change skeptics use to confuse and belittle the intelligence of the general public.


I love it how the defamed Climate Cult posts an article with a misleading title, and then when called out on the most recent deception, attempt to claim that the critique is obfuscation.

Here's an example of obfuscation - run around with your head cut off claiming the "tropics" are expanding.

Is the moon getting bigger too?

As for your attempt to argue that there are many meanings of the word "is", I disagree. Tropics mean tropics. If what the author meant was "tropical weather spreading outside of tropics," then the already questionable credibility of the Cult would not again be in question. Instead, the title was chosen, unscientifically, with an intent to spread fear.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:09:52

The edges of the tropical belt are the outer boundaries of the subtropical dry zones (Fig. 1) and their poleward shift could lead to fundamental shifts in ecosystems and in human settlements.

Shifts in precipitation patterns would have obvious implications for agriculture and water resources and could present serious hardships in marginal areas. Of particular concern are the semi-arid regions poleward of the subtropical dry belts, including the Mediterranean, the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa, and parts of South America. A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions to these heavily populated regions, but may bring increased moisture to other areas. Widening of the tropics would also probably be associated with poleward movement of major extratropical climate zones due to changes in the position of jet streams, storm tracks, mean position of high and low pressure systems, and associated precipitation regimes. An increase in the width of the tropics could bring an increase in the area affected by tropical storms, or could change climatological tropical cyclone development regions and tracks.

Widening of the tropics may also lead to changes in the distribution of climatically important trace gases in the stratosphere. The Brewer–Dobson circulation moves air upwards from the troposphere into the stratosphere in the tropics. If the area over which this upwelling occurs increases, transport of water vapour into the stratosphere might be enhanced. This could lead to an enhanced greenhouse effect, including tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, and reduced ozone.

More far-reaching changes in the climate system include the oceans and biosphere. Because atmospheric winds and air-sea exchanges drive the ocean currents, changes in the Hadley circulation may induce changes in the ocean circulation. These may have important feedbacks on tropospheric climate, marine ecosystems (including fisheries) and biogeochemical cycles, which have been hypothesized to lead to irreversible climate change.

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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:10:17

Cid_Yama wrote:In the very article quoted it defines the "tropical belt," Where the "edges of the Belt” are the outer boundaries of the subtropical dry zones.

Yes, problem is, they don't use the words "tropical belt" in the fear-mongering title.

It's like me publishing an article with the title, "Jenna Jameson lays Expatriot," but then it the body of the article I define "lays" as "projecting an image from a screen."

It's deceitful, like much of the Climate Change Cult propaganda that it produced. The science is shabby, so deceit must be used to stir the masses. Failing so far, but good luck.

Problem is, when "scientists" do things like destroy original data so that their models can't be checked, then they end up looking like unscientific folks trying to rook you, rather than look true.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby bluekachina » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:42:27

Researchers at James Cook University concluded the tropics had widened by up to 500 kilometres (310 miles) in the past 25 years after examining 70 peer-reviewed scientific articles.

They looked at findings from long-term satellite measurements, weather balloon data, climate models and sea temperature studies to determine how global warming was impacting on the tropical zone.

The findings showed it now extended well beyond the traditional definition of the tropics, the equatorial band circling the Earth between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn.

Professor Steve Turton said that meant the subtropical arid zone which borders the tropics was being pushed into temperate areas, with potentially devastating consequences.

"Such areas include heavily-populated regions of southern Australia, southern Africa, the southern Europe-Mediterranean-Middle East region, the south-western United States, northern Mexico, and southern South America," he said.

"All of (them) are predicted to experience severe drying.

"If the dry subtropics expand into these regions, the consequences could be devastating for water resources, natural ecosystems and agriculture, with potentially cascading environmental, social and health implications."

Turton said tropical diseases such as dengue fever were likely to become more prevalent.

"Some models predict the greatest increase in the annual epidemic potential of dengue will be into the subtropical regions, including the southern United States, China and northern Africa in the northern hemisphere, and South America, southern Africa, and most of Australia in the southern hemisphere," he said.

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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby dissident » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 18:58:36

Ah yes, scientists have to prove to assorted idiots everything and anything including basic concepts like the high pressure dry zones at the subtropical flanks of the Hadley circulation. This baby bum wiping is tedious and it is clear that the original intent of the "skeptic" drones is malicious. You don't see these specimens arguing about the tensile strength of aluminum with aerospace engineers.

In case it is not clear, the width of the Hadley circulation is not determined by orbital geometry but by the surface heating and latent heat release due to convection in the tropics as well as the angular rotation speed of the planet.

The observed warming of the tropics is driving a more intense Hadley circulation, which is creeping polewards on both flanks. Associated with this creep is intensification of baroclinic instability. The primary reason that the Hadley circulation does not extend to the poles is the presence of baroclinic instability, which exists thanks to the rotation of the planet.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby bluekachina » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 19:09:43

The economic costs of increasing extreme weather events such as drought, extreme heat waves, flooding and destructive winds, could be considerable. Since the 1950s, the global costs of extreme weather events have risen by around six orders of magnitude, with much of the increase occurring since the late 1980s (UNEP 2005). Extreme weather events resulting in destruction of crops could also be considered a global food security issue (Brown & Funk 2008).

Finally, a further implication of the expansion of the tropical zone is the possible expansion of tropical associated diseases and pests. Of particular concern is the potential for an extension in the geographical range of vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and Lyme’s disease, as temperatures and precipitation patterns become more suitable for disease vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks (Githeko et al. 2000; Kovats et al. 2001). Githeko et al. (2000) propose that the greatest impact on transmission rates will occur at the extremes of the range at which transmission now occurs, suggesting an increase in occurrence in the subtropical regions bordering the tropical belt. Similarly, Patz et al. (1998), who modeled the potential spread of dengue carrying mosquitoes, suggest that endemic potential will increase by up to 47% in regions already at risk of dengue fever, and that incidence may increase first in those regions which currently border endemic zones in either latitude or altitude. Their models predict the greatest increase in the annual epidemic potential of dengue will be into the subtropical regions, including the southern United States, China and Northern Africa in the northern hemisphere, and south America, southern Africa, and most of Australia in the southern hemisphere.

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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 20:53:14

dissident wrote: You don't see these specimens arguing about the tensile strength of aluminum with aerospace engineers.


Because -

1. Aerospace engineers don't destroy original data.
2. Aerospace engineers don't attempt to suppress competing opinions.
3. Aerospace engineers don't rely on "models" to figure out the tensile strength of aluminum.
4. The tensile strength of aluminum is agreed to by all, and is testable by all.
5. The tensile strength of aluminum is not a theory.
6. The tensile strength of aluminum cannot be used as a political tool to force an aluminum tax on every American.

I spent a lot of time in science. The only type of scientists I have heard about who were willing to conspire to suppress competing thought were climate ones. Never heard of physicists attempting to block string theory papers, no matter how disputed.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 22:10:19

Cold fusion.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 22:14:09

pe·dan·tic
adjective
1. ostentatious in one's learning.
2. overly concerned with minute details or formalisms, esp. in teaching.

os·ten·ta·tious
1. characterized by or given to pretentious or conspicuous show in an attempt to impress others: an ostentatious dresser.
2. (of actions, manner, qualities exhibited, etc.) intended to attract notice: Lady Bountiful's ostentatious charity.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 18 Aug 2010, 22:50:54

USDA to update Plant Hardiness zone maps to reflect climate change
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is about to revamp their plant hardiness map to accomodate rising temperatures considered attributable to global warming. If you have looked through seed catalogs you are familiar with "zones." A hardiness zone is a geographically-defined zone in which a specific category of plant life is capable of growing, as defined by temperature.

While the USDA hasn't released their zone change, experts report that it will show that zones are moving northward as spring starts earlier and fall later as the planet warms up. The zones are being compiled with a large amount of data, which is important, given that if people plant for the wrong zone a frost could kill their plants. As the zones change with global warming, so do the native species. Read more about how climate change is coming to your backyard." The change in the agricultural zone can affect everything from maple trees to spinach.

link

The map, originally expected in 2009, is still in the works and is expected in 2011. link

The new map is being developed by Oregon State University’s PRISM Group, a team of modelers that also produces climate maps for other state and federal agencies. Unlike past versions, the 2009 map will be GIS-compatible, storing and linking layers of information in a digital version that can be read with widely available GIS (geographic information system) viewing programs. It will have a resolution of 800 square meters, so users will be able to zoom in on their home towns or zip codes and see where they lie within zones.

USDA commissioned the revision after a flap in 2003, when the American Horticultural Society released a draft update based on 16 years of temperature data. USDA had funded the project but the Bush Administration rejected the update, which was configured differently and showed significant warming over the 1990 version, with many parts of the nation shifted into warmer climate zones. (The Arbor Day Foundation displays a modified version of the rejected map on its web site, along with an animation that shows the foundation’s estimate of warming since 1990.)


If not for Arborday releasing the rejected map, we would have been without a new plant Hardiness map for 20 years because the Bush Administration did not want to admit that the zones had shifted northward, confirming climate change.

The Agriculture Department is in the process of redoing the map itself. But critics have taken issue with the department’s decision to use 30 years of temperature data, saying it will result in cooler averages and fail to reflect the warming climate. The 1990 U.S.D.A. map used 13 years of data; the Arbor Day map used 15 years ending in 2004.

Cameron P. Wake, a climatologist at the Climate Change Research Center of the University of New Hampshire, said a 30-year period would include several cycles of multiyear effects like El Niño, with an underlying assumption that climate is stable and varies around a mean. Warming, on the other hand, “is not variability, it’s a long term trend,” Dr. Wake said. “I would say the U.S.D.A. doesn’t want to acknowledge there’s been change.”

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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 00:02:12

Expatriot wrote:1. Aerospace engineers don't destroy original data.

I suppose you believe they actually went to the Moon? :roll:
Expatriot wrote:3. Aerospace engineers don't rely on "models" to figure out the tensile strength of aluminum.

I think they use models of airflow around aircraft to predict lift, stability, etc.
Expatriot wrote:6. The tensile strength of aluminum cannot be used as a political tool to force an aluminum tax on every American.

How are we going to make them drive lightweight cars, then?
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby fonzcad3 » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 01:35:54

Expatriot -

As opposed to bemoaning the attention grabbing title, can you discuss the science of it? Why is it shabby? Can you post ANY reliable evidence you have that the scientists are using false data?
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 08:51:05

fonzcad3 wrote:Expatriot -

As opposed to bemoaning the attention grabbing title, can you discuss the science of it? Why is it shabby? Can you post ANY reliable evidence you have that the scientists are using false data?


I was criticizing the title not because it was "attention grabbing," which it was, but because it was misleading.

The science is weak because it relies on a very large serving of assumptions. There are assumptions in the placement of weather stations, assumptions in the culling of raw data, assumptions in the creation of modeling programs, and so on. Relative to the hard sciences, like physics, chemistry, biotech, and so on, Climate science has a tremendous margin of error and is much less predictive. Example 1 - no climate scientist was able to predict the lack of warming over the last 10 years.

With regard to using "false" data (not what I wrote), the guys in the UK who were resisting FOI requests, destroying evidence, suppressing competing theories, and so on, admitted to destroying the basic data upon which models were based. So clearly the data are questionable, at best. Given the climate scientists willingness to lie to get what the result they want, I wouldn't be surprised if they falsified data and then destroyed the raw records to cover their deceit.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby Expatriot » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 08:59:29

Keith_McClary wrote:I suppose you believe they actually went to the Moon? :roll:

I think they use models of airflow around aircraft to predict lift, stability, etc.

How are we going to make them drive lightweight cars, then?


Not sure about the moon - I figure more likely than not it was staged, but I don't really care. In any event, it had nothing to do with tensile strength of aluminum which is what was offered as the rejoinder, and the engineers were probably not the ones to set the thing up - I'd guess politicians/CIA types.

Models to predict airflows - which are then tested directly. Problem with climate theory is that the models are used to "predict" future climate, which is faith-based and can't be tested.

Lightweight cars? Give it 15 years. The won't be driving cars.
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Re: Tropics Expand

Unread postby AgentR » Thu 19 Aug 2010, 16:22:30

PoliticalGCC... Both sides have such huge investments and expectations for looting the piggy bank, that it effects everything they write and say.

Against the skeptics, I'd point out that its pretty clear that global average temperatures have risen over the past hundred years, and that it has had a notable impact on various environmentally measurable situations. Whether people did it, or space pigeons did it, I couldn't give a leaping ************.

Against the GCC propagandists, you spend so much time piddling along about who caused it; that you fail to recognize that it will not under any circumstance be avoided or diminished, and your efforts need to be directed towards finding ways to survive the hell that is already guaranteed.

There is no law you can pass that will change the roasting that is on the way.

Tropical climate zones are expanding, that is as clear as can be. Take some of that rage and put it to work finding out what to plant, when to plant, and how to bring something worthwhile to harvest under the new conditions. Because you sure as heck aren't going to push back an expansion of this magnitude.
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