ROCKMAN wrote:"...Keystone XL is the one most likely to succeed as the primary obstacle is getting the cross border approval from the POTUS." And one more time: not relevant. The southern leg of Keystone XL will be receiving oil from the Keystone Pipeline that has been moving oil across the border for years. As far as moving oil to the west coat that has been ongoing for years via pipeline and rail. And is in the process of expanding as that infrastructure is CURRENTLY being improved. Being done TODAY... not a theoretical plan.
I am unaware of any additional pipeline capacity to either the west coast, south into the US or to Eastern Canada that is actually under construction. Let's run through all the projects I am aware of.
Kinder-Morgan submitted their application to build an expansion of the Trans-Mountain line to the National Energy Board only a couple of weeks ago (Dec 16) so they still need to go through the review process and negotiate with the various aboriginal groups along the route. The earliest they expect to have the expansion in operation is late 2017. I'd put my money on it taking a lot longer then that given the number of people in BC who are unhappy with the proposal.
The review panel for the Northern Gateway pipeline has recommended that the Federal Government approve the project, however they have attached 209 requirements to that approval. The project had its formal launch almost 10 years ago and still isn't anywhere close to getting out of the gate. There is no guarantee that Enbridge will ever reach the point of being able to build the pipeline.
Energy East is an odd bird because it involves conversion of an existing natural gas pipeline into an oil pipeline plus new construction from Montreal to St. John, New Brunswick. An application has not yet been submitted to the National Energy Board so the regulatory process has not even started yet. Even if all goes well, it would be years before construction could start.
Assuming the POTUS gave approval to Keystone XL today how long would it take to become operational? I haven't seen any references to construction on the Hardisty, Alberta to Steele City section so it is likely that TransCanada won't start construction until they have the cross border approval in hand. I would not expect an immediate start to construction as they certainly don't have thousands of workers sitting around waiting for the approval to come through.
While rail is increasingly being used to move oil, I'm not aware of it being used to move bitumen from the tar sands. My understanding is that Prince Rupert doesn't even have facilities to offload oil tank cars.
You've said it yourself that the oil business is cyclic in nature. Given that a significant bump in pipeline capacity out of Alberta is years down the road, I'd have to say that there is likely to be a pause in the frantic pace of tar fields development.