Re: World Energy and Population Trends to 2100
Posted: Mon 15 Oct 2007, 12:45:30
Your post brings us to the following list of questions.
1. What % of the world's oil is used to create food?
2. What % of those inputs could be substituted with natural gas, coal, methane hydrates, biofuels, and other sources of carbon?
3. What would farm yields look like if we switched from oil intensive factory farms to less oil intensive farming methods?
I don't know the exact numbers but based on the reading I've done, the answers look something like this.
1. 3/4 of America's oil use is for transportation. Globally, oil use for transportation is also a strong majority. Considering that transportation can, in most cases, be electrified, a large supply cushion becomes available for agricultural uses.
2. A hydrocarbon is a hydrocarbon. Oil can become natural gas. Natural gas can become crude oil (and its derivatives). Coal can become oil. Basically, throw enough money at the problem and you'll get whatever chemical you want. The EROEI doesn't matter because we are trying to produce chemicals, not energy.
3. Talk to Ludi.
I'm not saying their won't be problems as a result of peak oil. I just don't see a shortage of fertilizer and pesticides as one of those problems.
1. What % of the world's oil is used to create food?
2. What % of those inputs could be substituted with natural gas, coal, methane hydrates, biofuels, and other sources of carbon?
3. What would farm yields look like if we switched from oil intensive factory farms to less oil intensive farming methods?
I don't know the exact numbers but based on the reading I've done, the answers look something like this.
1. 3/4 of America's oil use is for transportation. Globally, oil use for transportation is also a strong majority. Considering that transportation can, in most cases, be electrified, a large supply cushion becomes available for agricultural uses.
2. A hydrocarbon is a hydrocarbon. Oil can become natural gas. Natural gas can become crude oil (and its derivatives). Coal can become oil. Basically, throw enough money at the problem and you'll get whatever chemical you want. The EROEI doesn't matter because we are trying to produce chemicals, not energy.
3. Talk to Ludi.
I'm not saying their won't be problems as a result of peak oil. I just don't see a shortage of fertilizer and pesticides as one of those problems.