Page 12 of 25
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Sun 18 Sep 2022, 22:11:40by Newfie
No clue.
From what I can tell their “management” is working in an illogical manner. That makes prediction very difficult. Does attacking Taiwan make sense? No. Will they do it? No clue.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Fri 30 Sep 2022, 08:48:32by Newfie
Ship dip.
Shipping softens. Routes cancelled. Temporary?
https://gcaptain.com/maersk-suspends-ai ... oast-loop/
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Fri 30 Sep 2022, 15:27:38by vtsnowedin
That lines up with what the FedX CEO said the other day and the inventory reports from the Walmarts of the world.
It is pretty simple really as once you have filled up the car and paid your heating and groceries bills today you have a lot less to spend on discretionary items as you can only spend each dollar once. Even Apple dropped is sales estimates for it's latest phone as customers are deciding to hang onto their old one.
We are in a recession and only the idiots in charge of the Biden administration can't see it.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Sat 01 Oct 2022, 17:38:59by Newfie
I believe Amazon is dumping a bunch of distribution centers.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Sun 02 Oct 2022, 04:36:12by vtsnowedin
Newfie wrote:I believe Amazon is dumping a bunch of distribution centers.
Are those ones they are planning to build or ones already up and running? I can see holding off on expansion projects but if they are reducing their capacity they must see some dark days ahead.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Sun 02 Oct 2022, 13:14:54by Newfie
What I read sad they were reducing capacity.
CNBC reported that there would be 44 canceled or closed facilities and 25 delayed sites, based on a post by logistics consultant MVPVL International. That report said that delivery stations are the most common type of facility being closed.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/3644946-am ... ationwide/More in-depth here.
https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/am ... vl/631130/
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Sun 02 Oct 2022, 14:46:44by vtsnowedin
Well it must take a certain number of packages through a facility each day to pay the bills so if the packages are not going to be there they can't afford to have the plant and employees sitting idle. Apparently they agree with FedX's assessment of the near term economy.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 06 Oct 2022, 10:37:12by Newfie
Yes, it seems inevitable.
It is not a bad thing, people have been on a credit high, and junk fix for a long time.
Think George Carlin and his “STUFF” monologue.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 06 Oct 2022, 11:53:55by vtsnowedin
I am going to be watching the earnings reports that come in over the next two weeks. I expect a lot of missed targets but still positive earnings.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 06 Oct 2022, 15:47:48by AdamB
vtsnowedin wrote:I am going to be watching the earnings reports that come in over the next two weeks. I expect a lot of missed targets but still positive earnings.
Think it'll finally contribute towards getting the S&P down around 3000?
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 06 Oct 2022, 18:23:18by vtsnowedin
AdamB wrote:vtsnowedin wrote:I am going to be watching the earnings reports that come in over the next two weeks. I expect a lot of missed targets but still positive earnings.
Think it'll finally contribute towards getting the S&P down around 3000?
I doubt that but if Putin fires off a nuke the panic will get to your goal.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 06 Oct 2022, 18:49:43by AdamB
vtsnowedin wrote:AdamB wrote:vtsnowedin wrote:I am going to be watching the earnings reports that come in over the next two weeks. I expect a lot of missed targets but still positive earnings.
Think it'll finally contribute towards getting the S&P down around 3000?
I doubt that but if Putin fires off a nuke the panic will get to your goal.
I hadn't thought about that. And I'll bet you are right. Still, that alone would cause major unsettlement in general, and there could be worse knock on effects in other places. Feels a little bit craven, taking advantage of a nasty geopolitical event like that.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Fri 07 Oct 2022, 08:37:52by Newfie
I would not be surprised if that 50 years from now the Ukraine War marks the downturn.c the beginning of the “Big Slide” or what ever it will be called.
Globalization has always relied upon mutual trust to underpin the financial trades. This war is disrupting that international system. I can imagine some future historian writing something like:
“In 2022 the world was still attempting to recover from Covid trade disruptions, delayed by Chinas Zero Covid policy when the Ukraine War erupted, which further disrupted normal trade relationships. Countries started to scramble to assure access to necessary imports be they food, energy or minerals. This set up increased international competition for increasingly unreliable existential resources. Lurking under the daily news was the forth coming demographic collapse, which would only make restoration of the old paradigm more difficult. Some were still hopeful a resurgence of nuclear power would calm the waters, and valiant efforts would be made, but it would prove to be too little too late.”
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Fri 07 Oct 2022, 13:02:00by vtsnowedin
Newfie wrote:I would not be surprised if that 50 years from now the Ukraine War marks the downturn.c the beginning of the “Big Slide” or what ever it will be called.
Globalization has always relied upon mutual trust to underpin the financial trades. This war is disrupting that international system. I can imagine some future historian writing something like:
“In 2022 the world was still attempting to recover from Covid trade disruptions, delayed by Chinas Zero Covid policy when the Ukraine War erupted, which further disrupted normal trade relationships. Countries started to scramble to assure access to necessary imports be they food, energy or minerals. This set up increased international competition for increasingly unreliable existential resources. Lurking under the daily news was the forth coming demographic collapse, which would only make restoration of the old paradigm more difficult. Some were still hopeful a resurgence of nuclear power would calm the waters, and valiant efforts would be made, but it would prove to be too little too late.”
My outlook is less negative.
A USA led recession might deteriorate world trade down to a cash on delivery basis but the underlying benefits of trade will always be there. You can't grow coffee or oranges in Vermont and Brazil can't grow maple syrup. etc.
Sure some restructuring of world economies is needed but they can be restructured and most probably will be.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Fri 07 Oct 2022, 18:15:02by Newfie
As always, time will tell. Here is hoping you are more correct than I.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 17 Nov 2022, 06:01:54by Newfie
To save the world, does the economy need to stop growing?
Degrowth: A dangerous idea or the answer to the world's biggest crisis?
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/13/econ ... index.html
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 17 Nov 2022, 20:49:16by careinke
You can not regenerate the earth with the current keynesian, debt based, no reserve required, coercive, fiat currency, requiring a two percent growth annually. It will never work, how long have we been trying this? How successful have we been so far
, do you really think it can work this time?
It's time to separate the state from its currency with a decentralized deflationary currency that no one can control and anyone can aquire. I do have a few ideas on this.
F*ck the great reset: Buy Bitcoin
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bitcoin-will-save-humanityPeace
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 17 Nov 2022, 21:05:13by Newfie
Carinke,
Glad to hear you have ideas. We need them.
Most of the point of the article is that it is really hard to imaginesome other modle. And to be frank, I get that.
But , as you say, what we are doing does not work, clearly obvious to about 2% of population, none of whom are politicians.
I sort of think Japan is the first to go down, let's see what they come up with.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Thu 17 Nov 2022, 22:28:27by jato0072
The current global economic system will continue until it fails and subsequently shrinks. The people in charge can't even run a city like San Francisco, Chicago, New York or Baltimore (to name a few). There is no way they can engineer a successful de-growth.
Re: Degrowth Thread Pt. 2
Posted:
Fri 18 Nov 2022, 06:18:50by Newfie
Undoubtedly true.
Japan seems to be trying to finagle around international degrowth demographics by off shoring Manufacturing. The USA by immigration.
But for sure no one, not even the greens, is even speaking of it so that makes your comment obviously true. Everyone finds it i.perative we continue the consumption lifestyle.