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aahala wrote:

0mar wrote:

aahala wrote:Really big improvements in US car gas ecomony would be a plus.

As far as alternatives, what alternatives? Ethanol is about 3% and all
the others combined probably don't represent much more than .5%. Ethanol won't be crushed either, most of its use is from 90/10 blends
with gasoline in locations that required it.

Ethanol is less than 3%. It is something around 1.2%.

I was wondering how you got that percentage.

Here's how I got mine. I took the reported daily gasoline useage
of about 9.1 MBD, multiplied by 42 to convert to gallons and then
by 365 days. Rounded up, about 140 billion. Then I divided using
3.53 billion of 2004 ethanol consumption.

I believe I got the exact ethanol figure from some Renewable fuel site, but
amounts similar it and the daily gasoline useage I used are on official sites
like eia as well.

ah I see our discrepenacy. I was using total US consumption of 20mbd.

This isn't just about cars either. How many barges/trains would we need to replace all the trucks that get 3-6mpg?

No one can claim with any credibility that when oil peaks, gas will go immediately to $20 a gallon and hold there. That is the only scenario that might cause an broad economic crisis. A more rational view is that peak production will usher in an era of more expensive oil, punctuated by occasional sharp price hikes and shortages. It is reasonable to postulate a crisis in the auto, airline and trucking industries at least. The global economy is very large and more diverse and resilient than people think. Growth in some sectors (energy for instance) will compensate for contraction in other sectors. I foresee the auto, airline and trucking industries coming under federal control as part of a bailout plan. The government will be given a mandate by voters to make substantial changes because they will have been scared into submission by high prices and shortages. The government driven auto industry will mass produce electric cars. Detroit already has the capability of produce these cars. (And please, don't post the objection that we don't have enough oil to make cars anymore. That's the most ridiculous statement I've read so far in these forums) Simultaneously, steps will by taken to expand the electrical grid via nuclear, coal and alternatives. Eventually the economy will be virtually oil and natural gas free. Entrenched private interests and environmental objections will be steamrolled by a government empowered with an emergency mandate (similar to what happened after 9/11).

Like I have said before, everybody come out of your bunkers. This is going to be a big deal and lifestyles will change, but it won't be Mad Max. Now Avian Flu..............................

What if we all drove electric very small cars and only went a couple of miles to work, and shopping. We could charge them off of solar panels mounted on the roof of the garage we kept the car in. They would be similar to the gemcars that are available now. Have a charge controller that plugs directly into the battery bank in the car. Why not? It would be transportation that took almost nothing off the grid.

Daryl wrote:Entrenched private interests and environmental objections will be steamrolled by a government empowered with an emergency mandate (similar to what happened after 9/11).

Or, if need be, similar to the Mercury/Gemini/Apollo programs or the WWII production effort. I just don't understand the "collectivelly throwing up our arms and screaming doom" scenario playing out when history has demonstrated that we have the capacity to adapt on a meaningful level. Yeah, if this plays out according to the more dire forecasts, then this will a unique period, but I just can't dismiss history.

I have a problem with the whole idea of Hard-Landing versus Soft-Landing.

The problem is there won't be a landing in living memory, we'll just keep bumping on down and down and down and down and down.

DigitalCubano wrote:

Daryl wrote:Entrenched private interests and environmental objections will be steamrolled by a government empowered with an emergency mandate (similar to what happened after 9/11).

Or, if need be, similar to the Mercury/Gemini/Apollo programs or the WWII production effort. I just don't understand the "collectivelly throwing up our arms and screaming doom" scenario playing out when history has demonstrated that we have the capacity to adapt on a meaningful level. Yeah, if this plays out according to the more dire forecasts, then this will a unique period, but I just can't dismiss history.

Yes, and don't forget the New Deal government projects as well. Many of those were large hydro-electric projects, I believe. All in response to emergency situations.

Personally I think a conversion to a more efficient auto fleet in the US is necessary and relatively easily done... Forget hybrids. For 12,000 you can buy a new Toyota Yaris in 2006 (about 1/3 the cost of the mega-truck the average blue collar 20 year old drives) that does 48 mpg highway. With 40 mpg average you will probably have cut your personal gasoline consumption in half. Yes, about 12% of the car's lifetime gasoline consumption will have been spent in it's creation, but you have reduced it's lifetime gasoline consumption from more than 1000 gallon/year to less than 500 gallon/year. Throw in some carpooling, skipped trips and decreased vacations and the essential economy could go on significantly longer even in the face of gradually decreasing oil supply.

Only high gas prices will drive us to smaller efficient cars... During a climate of high gas prices and energy concerns, drivers switching will allow them to consume less gasoline personally and continue to work. It will be a temporary "patch" to keep things going as is. The longer term public benefit would be that efficiency will keep the economy functioning longer in a time of energy concern. If we don't use that time to build alternative transportation (looking beyond gasoline) then efficient cars won't have helped. Longer term Electric Vehicles may be viable... http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/05306/599379.stm

I guess it all depends on how bad things get. But you have to admit that using cars for transportation is very energy-hungry. Almost any other alternative system would be easier, assuming an energy crisis. The first move will be towards more efficient cars, but if that isn't enough (and it's easy to imagine why it wouldn't be), I think the days of the car are numbered.