[dissident]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27755032

Bulgaria is to halt work on its Russian-backed South Stream gas pipeline following criticism from the EU and US.

The morons in Brussels have gone and done it. They actually believe they can coerce Russia into yielding to the blackmail from the Kiev regime. We'll see how far these people who have no clue about peak oil and gas will get with this policy. In the past Gazprom was worried about the EU running off and finding other suppliers. This is no longer a real possibility, various BS claims about limitless LNG export capacity in the USA notwithstanding. If Russia decides to move the sales point to the Russia-Ukraine border, the EU will be left having to wipe Kiev's tantrum a** and their little ploy to have Russia fund the neo-Nazi run regime (look at the list of names heading all the key ministries) will fail.

Russia does not need to cut off the flow. It just needs to change the terms of sale. The EU is in no position to dictate terms.

[Tanada]

The EU, no less than the USA, is subject to the whims of Politicians who are used to imposing their will upon the world. Very soon now they will have to learn the World no longer knuckles under to them.

[dolanbaker]

[tinfoilhat] Is it the politicians or the puppet-masters (the 0.01%) who are actually driving this?
But why would they do this????[/tinfoilhat]
On a more practical point, it just gives Russia another reason to "look east" and enhance their pipelines to China & India.

[ROCKMAN]

It makes even less sense to me. The EU countries that want South Stream already are dependent upon Russia NG. But SS would provide an alternative supply route for Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovenia, Austria and Italy. It is expected to ship up to 63 billion cubic meters of gas from 2018. What SS accomplishes is making those countries less dependent the Ukraine to transit that Russian NG to them. In either case those countries can still be held hostage by Russia but with SS not so much by the Ukraine. It isn't like that situation hasn't blown up in the EU's face before. But maybe that's the bottom line for the EU commissioners: keep the Ukraine cash flow from transporting Russian NG coming in so they won't become an every bigger basket case for the EU support. Remember the IMF is about to loan close to $20 billion to the Ukraine. I'm pretty sure they would like to see it repaid. Makes me wonder what sort of behind-closed-doors guarantee of future NG supplies the commissioners might have made to Bulgaria?

[sparky]

.
It's part of the cold war against Russia ,
with the North stream ( also fought tooth and nails against ) and South stream
Poland and Ukraine would be expendable as transit countries
since they are the darlings of the Neo con establishment , that wouldn't do

the sad truth is that prez Obama doesn't control the US foreign affairs
they are solidly in the hands of Zionist Neo cons who do as they please
barely informing the POTUS afterward.

[M_B_S]

THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT


http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news ... e0e4c.html

Gas: Tsipras and Putin to sign preliminary deal on pipeline
The pact is not expected to be legally binding
18 JUNE, 09:41



(ANSAmed) - ATHENS, JUNE 18 - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to sign a preliminary agreement for Greece's participation in Moscow's planned extension of the so-called 'Turk Stream' gas pipeline through Greek territory during Tsipras's visit on Thursday and Friday to Saint Petersburg.....
**************************************

Great BIG MOVE on the global chess board.

M_B_S

[ROCKMAN]

One has to wonder if part of the unpublished deal with Putin includes giving him veto power over the transit of ME NG via pipelines thru Turkey. The map clearly shows the financial advantage of moving NG thru Turkey and Greece into the EU. An advantage that Mr. P surely doesn’t want to see employed.

[Withnail]

THE GREECE + RUSSIA + TURKEY GAS PACT


http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news ... e0e4c.html

Gas: Tsipras and Putin to sign preliminary deal on pipeline
The pact is not expected to be legally binding
18 JUNE, 09:41



(ANSAmed) - ATHENS, JUNE 18 - Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to sign a preliminary agreement for Greece's participation in Moscow's planned extension of the so-called 'Turk Stream' gas pipeline through Greek territory during Tsipras's visit on Thursday and Friday to Saint Petersburg.....
**************************************

Great BIG MOVE on the global chess board.

M_B_S

A big 'up yours' to the global terrorist, the United States.

Hoping for many more.

[Tanada]

I see this as a further distancing of Greece from the EU. They want their money and territorial rights back instead of following the dictates of the Bureaucracy headquartered in Brussels.

[Ulenspiegel]

Tanada,

the insteresting aspects for me are:

1) The Russians have to invest a lot if they actually want to build the pipeline in Greece, they would pay 100%. What are the problems in Ukraine? What can we expect in a failing Greece? To pay in order to replace one blackmailer with another may not be such a solid business model.

2) At the same time the Russians agree to add more capacity to North Stream, actually in 100% increase, here they pay less, their business partners would give money and are much more reliable than Greece. Interestingly, this gets less media attention than the Greek project despite being much closer to realization.

Could it be that the Greek project is hot air? Nice propaganda?

[ROCKMAN]

This thread might highlight another of the "unintended consequences" of the Russian sanctions by the west. The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist:

Here’s a pronouncement to rekindle nostalgia for the Soviet Union’s once-formidable propaganda machine: the 180,000 tonnes of cheese produced in Russia in the first four months of this year was 30 percent more than in the same period of 2014. The increase, reported by state statistics service Rosstat, is one of the few appetizing unintended consequences to emerge from the West’s sanctions against Russia. The penalties followed last year’s annexation of Crimea and President Vladimir Putin’s ongoing support of pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine. The cheese business is surging because Russia, in retaliation for restrictions imposed by the United States and European Union, banned a wide swath of food and agricultural imports last August. While there were enough holes in the prohibition to allow Swiss Emmental into Russia, domestic producers were called upon to patriotically curdle their own variations of Italian parmesan and Cypriot halloumi.

A cheese boom in Russia is hardly what the international community was planning when it announced measures designed to target Putin’s inner circle of power. But it’s the least worrisome of many other unexpected developments. Certainly it is of less concern to London, Washington and Berlin than, say, Putin’s heightened popularity or Russia’s economic pivot to China. Economic sanctions, blockades and their ilk are among the least perfect tools wielded by Western governments. Just ask Fidel Castro or the mullahs still ruling Iran. In part, that’s because assessing their efficacy often requires proving a counter-factual. For instance, it might be argued that UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s threat earlier this year of “materially different” sanctions kept pro-Russian forces from overrunning the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, the last barrier to building a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. Maybe – or maybe not.

Cameron, U.S. President Barack Obama and others who championed the sanctions in March 2014 promised they were aiming at Putin and such cronies as Gennady Timchenko, the founder of commodities trader Gunvor and Yuri Kovalchuk, the largest owner of Bank Rossiya, rather than ordinary Russians. While travel and other prohibitions have certainly inconvenienced Putin’s network of loyal oligarchs, the average Russian continues to bear the brunt of the bruising. Reduced access to capital has hurt the entrepreneurial lifeblood of the Russian economy, or any other: small and medium-sized businesses. While big state enterprises like Rosneft or Gazprom have also been shut out of international capital markets, they still have access to the balance sheets of Russian banks, particularly the two state-owned giants, Sberbank and VTB.

Not so the little guys. Credit extended to small and medium-sized entities was down 9 percent to 4.78 billion rubles in May from the same month a year earlier, according to Central Bank of Russia figures. Bankers in Moscow admit that they have little incentive to lend to these borrowers, as they are riskier credits than, say, a steel mill backed by the Kremlin. The longer this continues, the more control the state will ultimately exert on the Russian economy. Again, it’s hard to imagine that was the objective of the West’s sanctions. Despite the economic hardship, Putin’s approval ratings have soared, hitting 86 percent last month, according to Moscow pollster the Levada Center. With his extraordinary popularity, Putin is under little immediate pressure to make the tough structural changes that would help Russia’s economy, and which were plainly needed well before the annexation of Crimea.

The economic ostracism has also encouraged a Russian pivot toward China. Not only is trade between the nations up, but Chinese state banks are helping capitalize Russian businesses. They were, for instance, involved in the secondary offering in March of Lenta, a hypermarket chain originally backed by U.S. private equity fund TPG. The $225 million deal was led by the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which was established to make equity co-investments alongside strategic investors, including China Investment Corp. Sure, some of the pain being inflicted on the Russian middle class was expected. As Obama said in a speech in Brussels after unveiling sanctions: “The Russian people will recognize that they cannot achieve the security, prosperity and the status that they seek through brute force.”

But that message hasn’t yet fully sunk in. Putin looks stronger than ever. And the variety of Russian cheeses in the dairy case keeps expanding by the day

[sparky]

.
Russia always was making their own cheese , called "cyr" it's very similar to the British cheddar .
this set of sanctions is a blessing for Russia economy ,
It was suffering from the oil rich curse , an overvalued currency making imports cheaper than the local production
the result was massive import of consumer goods , usually from those countries buying their ressources
now , Finally with the tanking of world oil price and the tit for tat set of sanctions , local producers are in a favorable position , dairy and meat demand are pulling the local farmers into good time ,
before Russia was importing chicken from the US , butter from France , yogurt from Lithuania
it was a big drain on the trade balance and made the countryside unhappy .

Putin took forever to realize the secret of power is to have a strong local economy ,
keep the foreigners away , trade deals are an exchange of poison ,to be handled with utmost care
all this talk about the benefit of globalization are just cheap heroine sold to the punters
a quick high followed by an eternity of prostitution

the test is if you can export stuff the other guy is the loser ,
if you import , sooner or later you will be paying for it twice over

[Synapsid]

I volunteer to do quality control testing on Russian halloumi. All I ask in payment is a steady supply of the stuff.

[AgentR11]

1) The Russians have to invest a lot if they actually want to build the pipeline in Greece, they would pay 100%. What are the problems in Ukraine? What can we expect in a failing Greece? To pay in order to replace one blackmailer with another may not be such a solid business model.

The problem with Ukraine is they want Crimea back. I'd say that's worth about 1-2 trillion USD.

2) At the same time the Russians agree to add more capacity to North Stream, actually in 100% increase, here they pay less, their business partners would give money and are much more reliable than Greece. Interestingly, this gets less media attention than the Greek project despite being much closer to realization.

This is the real story. Germany may be annoying, but they are sane customers and only modest sources drama. I think Russia's hedging its bets vs the south side. I suspect they *will* build all that pipeline stuff to, and in Turkey; and then Turkey and Germany end up being the sellers of gas into the rest of Europe; so Russia's main customers go from a large lot of annoying drama queens, to Germany, Turkey, and China. None of which will play politics with their energy supplies. And none of whom have any remaining interest in Crimea itself as an acquisition target.

Does expanding North Stream comply with the 3rd energy package because it is Gazprom's only up to the EU border?

Could it be that the Greek project is hot air? Nice propaganda?

Not hot air, but a distraction. Russia will happily pay for that pipeline construction if they can get some naval/air access in the deal. Loan Greece the money for pipeline, lease access to Port X, funds from lease payment used to repay the loan to Russia, initial money from the loan from Russia could even be used to avoid default on the EU side. It wouldn't be the same sort of blackmail as Crimea; it'd be just a convenience type thing.

I would think Germany would be content with this, if they could avoid having to just write off that Greek debt.

That said, I think the Greece chatter is all bluff; Athens waited too long. I can't imagine it being rational to try and put together a deal of that magnitude in time for Greece to make its next interest payments...

Interesting aside.... if Greece leaves the EU; maybe EU could get in a little dig by recognizing FYROM as just plain ole Macedonia. Not that I understand the extreme attachment either of them have to that name; the arguments seem very irrational.

[Withnail]

One thing is for sure, no gas will be going through Ukraine any more.

If Ukraine can no longer steal, its gas supply becomes Europe's problem.

[ROCKMAN]

And I'll also speculate that the deal with Turkey/Greece may have more to do with ME and N African NG then Russian NG. It has often been the case, even in the US, that the pipeline owner had greater control over who got (or didn't get) the NG then the producer.

[Synapsid]

ROCKMAN,

Will you expand on your last speculation? Is the idea that if Russian NG gets in first then Nigerian and Middle East NG won't be able to compete?

Thanks.

[Ulenspiegel]

Agent,

the capacity of Northstream is already sufficient to transport 60% of the Russian Exports to the EU, two more tubes means that more than 100% could be transported, i.e. increasing demand of UK. Why an additional pipeline in Greece?

The Russian fleet in the Black Sea is too small to become a factor in the Mediterranean, with or without more ports, to invest for an non factor is strange IMHO. The whole thing does not pass the smell test.

Germany does not expect to get money back from Greece.

[Ulenspiegel]

And I'll also speculate that the deal with Turkey/Greece may have more to do with ME and N African NG then Russian NG. It has often been the case, even in the US, that the pipeline owner had greater control over who got (or didn't get) the NG then the producer.

And there are of course the former Asian Soviet Republics which want to deliver or are delivering at the moment via Ukraine.

[AgentR11]

the capacity of Northstream is already sufficient to transport 60% of the Russian Exports to the EU, two more tubes means that more than 100% could be transported, i.e. increasing demand of UK. Why an additional pipeline in Greece?

Paranoia? Simple distrust. Experience with Ukraine has perhaps taught them a hard lesson. Its a bad place to be in, as a supplier, where you are seen as the bad guy if you turn off supply if you are not paid. Its really a wrong relationship; but because Ukraine was a "pass-through" who would dip into the kitty, even if it wasn't theirs; Russia ends up being seen as using gas as a weapon if they don't keep the gas flowing into Ukraine, even if Ukraine hasn't paid.

Two pipes with excess import capacity takes the "bad guy"/"weapon" thing off the table somewhat. If Germany was 100%, and the sole import point, Germany could turn around and do a Ukraine on Steriods; demanding massive discounts because of their monopoly on transport into the EU. Now, of course, we as Western economic believers understand that's a stupid concept; Russian pipeline gas is much cheaper than all LNG possibilities; risking serious economic disruption in order to change the rate from fairly cheap to very cheap, just isn't rational.

Russians otoh, don't really believe in the market, even if they are making an effort to force themselves to act like they believe (recent strike of grain export tariff, for instance). Since they don't believe in the market, they do believe that Germany would not hesitate to use monopoly control of gas import lines to inflict serious harm on Russia, even if it cost Germany a lot of pain.

The Russian fleet in the Black Sea is too small to become a factor in the Mediterranean, with or without more ports, to invest for an non factor is strange IMHO. The whole thing does not pass the smell test.

Depends on what you think the purpose of the Black Sea fleet is. My sense is that it exists to demonstrate and prove freedom of navigation from the Black Sea out to the Atlantic via the Med. Again, they don't get that when we say "freedom of navigation in international waters" we mean for everyone, period. My take is that they sincerely believe NATO would sink their cargo ships and tankers just for the heck of it; if it weren't for the risk of nuclear war. Again, a completely incorrect view; but its a paranoia they've acquired honestly. A port in Greece would make the exercise easier; and they'd have an interesting, pleasing destination to go TO. Making an Atlantic crossing to Argentina, just to periodically prove the point, is both really, really boring, and unnecessarily costly.

I know we try to forget, or at least consider it irrelevant; but there really were German troops, in Russia, trying to flatten and/or enslave the place within the living memory of some; and definitely within the generational storied memory of the population. I think they honestly believe you guys would do it again if it ever became possible to do without risking annihilation.

America attitudes don't help either. Our leaders are relatively sane, if perhaps a bit incompetent, but our populace leads with lines like, "lets nuke the site from orbit, its the only way to be sure." Public sentiment in the US gets way ahead of the pols on use of force. We had more than a trivial number of folks that felt we should use nuclear weapons on Iraq... just because. And we lead NATO; and we're a democracy. A very violent, predatory democracy. No need to pretend otherwise.

Germany does not expect to get money back from Greece.

That's a wise expectation, but wouldn't it be cool if you COULD get it back?? Come on, you can't be a good capitalist and be unwilling to take an opportunity to recover capital that you thought was lost.