Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis Pt. 19
Posted: Wed 03 Apr 2024, 15:10:30
I'd be careful about sourcing any emotional argument concerning Russia / China from a Japanese news agency such as Nikkei. You probably couldn't pick a less objective source.
Not that its a bad topic to consider, but its rather unrealistic. Especially as commercial lease arrangements are easier to work with than armed conflict with the country you want to act as your fossil fuel guarantor.
I do expect a lot more Chinese agribusiness in Russia's far East, but they'll pay a fee, isolate themselves in their own little company worlds, and contribute as an exporting business from Russia to China; much as they do currently. Russians in the area will grumble about not being employed by them, but also grumble about insane labor conditions the Chinese firms and employees agree to...
If Xi wants to stoke some nationalism... the target will either by the South China Sea (with Russian cooperation, most likely); or this little chunk of India/China up in the mountains that is absolutely worthless for anything other than stoking degenerate hostilities.
As a wild hair, I've often wondered what would happen if Russia arranged a grand trade, Russia, Japan, China, India. I think they could make it happen if they were so inclined, but it'd definitely be a wild leap. Russia cedes Southern Kurils to Japan, some undeveloped Amur territory to China, China cedes that Indian desolate spot to India, India sends cash/gold to Russia, Japan signs peace treaty and guarantees future transit for Russian ships through the Kurils. (it freezes hard further North... less effects of Climate change in future). Russia gains wealth, and harmony in BRICS, for some land they have no intention of seriously developing.
I think neither mine, nor Nikkei's proposed future have any remote chance of occurrence, but its fun to spitball.
Xi doing something overt in the SCS in the next decade or so, that seems like a winner to me, considering the resources he's already devoted in that region.
Not that its a bad topic to consider, but its rather unrealistic. Especially as commercial lease arrangements are easier to work with than armed conflict with the country you want to act as your fossil fuel guarantor.
I do expect a lot more Chinese agribusiness in Russia's far East, but they'll pay a fee, isolate themselves in their own little company worlds, and contribute as an exporting business from Russia to China; much as they do currently. Russians in the area will grumble about not being employed by them, but also grumble about insane labor conditions the Chinese firms and employees agree to...
If Xi wants to stoke some nationalism... the target will either by the South China Sea (with Russian cooperation, most likely); or this little chunk of India/China up in the mountains that is absolutely worthless for anything other than stoking degenerate hostilities.
As a wild hair, I've often wondered what would happen if Russia arranged a grand trade, Russia, Japan, China, India. I think they could make it happen if they were so inclined, but it'd definitely be a wild leap. Russia cedes Southern Kurils to Japan, some undeveloped Amur territory to China, China cedes that Indian desolate spot to India, India sends cash/gold to Russia, Japan signs peace treaty and guarantees future transit for Russian ships through the Kurils. (it freezes hard further North... less effects of Climate change in future). Russia gains wealth, and harmony in BRICS, for some land they have no intention of seriously developing.
I think neither mine, nor Nikkei's proposed future have any remote chance of occurrence, but its fun to spitball.
Xi doing something overt in the SCS in the next decade or so, that seems like a winner to me, considering the resources he's already devoted in that region.