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SeaGypsy wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lNNhtC-Jxk&fbclid=IwAR1H79DUpPwlfr_R7ziPRJPTQBaRvzw4qNmmS_cdfPJXsibAF85O0HCB5ro&app=desktop

So you give a link to a 2 hour video with no explanation of what is in it? Gee thanks. I'll pass.

Cog wrote:

SeaGypsy wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lNNhtC-Jxk&fbclid=IwAR1H79DUpPwlfr_R7ziPRJPTQBaRvzw4qNmmS_cdfPJXsibAF85O0HCB5ro&app=desktop

So you give a link to a 2 hour video with no explanation of what is in it? Gee thanks. I'll pass.

Start at 1.10.00 & if you still want to pass after 5 minutes I owe you two beers.

Don't bother watching video. I don't subscribe to any video that's screaming at me. Usually, they're trying to brainwash you when they do that.

SeaGypsy wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lNNhtC-Jxk&fbclid=IwAR1H79DUpPwlfr_R7ziPRJPTQBaRvzw4qNmmS_cdfPJXsibAF85O0HCB5ro&app=desktop

Not this tinfoil hat retardation. Anyone claiming this is a pure panic is a f*cking degenerate. If it was just a panic, there would not be a flood of real cases in ICUs which are breaking the system. In case that is not clear, there are actual victims (of all ages not as these retards claim just old people) who are on respirators for over a month and there are so many of them that systems all over the world can't handle it. Doctors in Italy and other places are choosing who lives and dies.

It does not matter that most people do not get sick enough to be in ICU and die. Claiming that this is just like the regular flu is worthy of time in a padded room.

dissident wrote:

SeaGypsy wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lNNhtC-Jxk&fbclid=IwAR1H79DUpPwlfr_R7ziPRJPTQBaRvzw4qNmmS_cdfPJXsibAF85O0HCB5ro&app=desktop

Not this tinfoil hat retardation. Anyone claiming this is a pure panic is a f*cking degenerate. If it was just a panic, there would not be a flood of real cases in ICUs which are breaking the system. In case that is not clear, there are actual victims (of all ages not as these retards claim just old people) who are on respirators for over a month and there are so many of them that systems all over the world can't handle it. Doctors in Italy and other places are choosing who lives and dies.

It does not matter that most people do not get sick enough to be in ICU and die. Claiming that this is just like the regular flu is worthy of time in a padded room.

Obviously you didn't watch it so STFU.

jedrider wrote:Don't bother watching video. I don't subscribe to any video that's screaming at me. Usually, they're trying to brainwash you when they do that.

You wouldn't consider that you may already be thoroughly brainwashed? Isn't your mighty brain capable of filtering?

SeaGypsy wrote:You wouldn't consider that you may already be thoroughly brainwashed? Isn't your mighty brain capable of filtering?

All you're doing here is demonstrating to the forum that you're a nut and deserve to be in people's ignore filters.

So the OP posts a link to a 2 hr video with no explanation of what is in it and then calls people retarded because the won't watch it. SeaGypsy is batting 1.000.

Cog wrote:So the OP posts a link to a 2 hr video with no explanation of what is in it and then calls people retarded because the won't watch it. SeaGypsy is batting 1.000.

I watched about 7 minutes from the recommended 1:10 point. That was a waste of 7 minutes.

As dissident points out, given the real world numbers we have, this sure looks like tinfoil, supported mostly by histrionics.

If we only have 20K US deaths from this, I'll be more than HAPPY to retract this opinion. But the way the numbers are growing, we'll be WELL beyond that in a couple of weeks unless things change radically.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:

Cog wrote:So the OP posts a link to a 2 hr video with no explanation of what is in it and then calls people retarded because the won't watch it. SeaGypsy is batting 1.000.

I watched about 7 minutes from the recommended 1:10 point. That was a waste of 7 minutes.

As dissident points out, given the real world numbers we have, this sure looks like tinfoil, supported mostly by histrionics.

If we only have 20K US deaths from this, I'll be more than HAPPY to retract this opinion. But the way the numbers are growing, we'll be WELL beyond that in a couple of weeks unless things change radically.

Please lay out your bet? I've already won.

https://www.euromomo.eu/

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
If we only have 20K US deaths from this, I'll be more than HAPPY to retract this opinion. But the way the numbers are growing, we'll be WELL beyond that in a couple of weeks unless things change radically.

We may not exceed 20k deaths in the USA if we follow the same pattern as Italy and many other countries who waited a bit long to do the lockdown and in addition if we rally with equipping hospitals in the short term with the ventilators and equipment they need.

Just because we have this short term horrific situation of critically ill exceeding hospital infrastructure does not mean we are going to explode exponentially with the number of dead outside the range of other countries with a similar situation.

Italy has 60 million total population and 12,000 deaths with an average daily death rate since 10 days of between 700-900 deaths per day due to Covid19. Now of those 12,000 deaths how many were because of just Covid19 and how many where because of Covid19 plus lack of ventilators. And of course how many would have died anyway because many had pretty serious additional morbidity.

USA has 5 times the total population of Italy so applying Italy's total deaths to the US popualtion you get roughly 60,000 deaths. If we can get ventilators distributed to critical areas and if we can set up the necesarry ICU units the total death toll in the USA may be well under 60,000.

Average deaths per day in Italy year round is 1780, with a few percent up in winter down in summer. This winter was 2/5th of the death spikes in the last 3 flu epidemics in Europe in the last 6 years. They are flogging a dead horse.

Ibon wrote:

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
If we only have 20K US deaths from this, I'll be more than HAPPY to retract this opinion. But the way the numbers are growing, we'll be WELL beyond that in a couple of weeks unless things change radically.

We may not exceed 20k deaths in the USA if we follow the same pattern as Italy and many other countries who waited a bit long to do the lockdown and in addition if we rally with equipping hospitals in the short term with the ventilators and equipment they need.

Just because we have this short term horrific situation of critically ill exceeding hospital infrastructure does not mean we are going to explode exponentially with the number of dead outside the range of other countries with a similar situation.

Italy has 60 million total population and 12,000 deaths with an average daily death rate since 10 days of between 700-900 deaths per day due to Covid19. Now of those 12,000 deaths how many were because of just Covid19 and how many where because of Covid19 plus lack of ventilators. And of course how many would have died anyway because many had pretty serious additional morbidity.

USA has 5 times the total population of Italy so applying Italy's total deaths to the US popualtion you get roughly 60,000 deaths. If we can get ventilators distributed to critical areas and if we can set up the necesarry ICU units the total death toll in the USA may be well under 60,000.

It's not over in Italy for this wave. Not even close. And we don't know how many waves we will have.

I'll be thrilled if we only have 20,000 US deaths. But given what's happening, I'll believe it when I see it. Especially when the forecasts from infectious disease experts telling the country what's up are forecasting numbers more like 5 to 12 times that as likely.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/us/p ... tates.html

US is saying 1 in 4 cases show no symptoms
China knew this but basically ignored them in the count as they saw them as insignificant and say as many as 50+% were showing no symptoms and werent counted

Chinese researchers estimate that 59% of those who contracted the virus had mild or no symptoms.
Documents seen by the South China Morning Post reportedly showed more than 40,000 asymptomatic patients that would not have been included in China’s total number of infections of more than 80,000.

China just saw the first spike in cases and deaths today when they started re opening and will now do more to try and isolate the ones with no symptoms

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-carriers

Shaved Monkey wrote:US is saying 1 in 4 cases show no symptoms
China knew this but basically ignored them in the count as they saw them as insignificant and say as many as 50+% were showing no symptoms and werent counted

Chinese researchers estimate that 59% of those who contracted the virus had mild or no symptoms.
Documents seen by the South China Morning Post reportedly showed more than 40,000 asymptomatic patients that would not have been included in China’s total number of infections of more than 80,000.

China just saw the first spike in cases and deaths today when they started re opening and will now do more to try and isolate the ones with no symptoms

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... t-carriers

Very interesting. Thanks for pointing this article out.

Wow, if it's over 50% show no symptoms, little wonder it's so easily spread with no clue about the danger. Even if it's only 25% in the US, that's people (maybe hundreds of thousands of people, given the continued lack of sufficient testing) running around for perhaps several weeks shedding virus and having no idea they're sick. (Symptomatic people average about 5 days before they develop noticeable symptoms, last time I checked).

And, wow, THAT DIDN'T TAKE LONG to see another wave cranking up in China when they loosened restrictions! Last week I read about them getting things cranked up re factories, etc. and this week -- oops, another wave starting.

This also seems to kind of show that all the arm waving histrionics of how China is lying about everything and suppressing any bad news re COVID-19 cases is simply false.

That's not to say their data is anything like perfect, and in fact this story shows they have been kind of clueless about the size of this risk, and thus already have another wave cranking up (which will be interesting to see how quickly they can tamp it down -- assuming they can before it gets big).

...

I couldn't get the link Shaved Monkey provided to work (404 - Not Found). So I did a little poking around and found what I presume to be the same Guardian article here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... o-symptoms

Edit:

Also, this seems really BAD re the US, given the lack of testing AND masks for the public.

As a result, the CDC was now “aggressively reviewing” its recommendations on use of face masks, potentially extending their use based on the assumption that more people in “high transmission zones” were already infected but without symptoms.

US healthcare workers are already facing acute shortages of personal protective equipment, and Dr Anthony Fauci, the head of Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force, warned on Tuesday that, although widening use of masks was being considered, it must not come at a cost to frontline health workers.

Trump advised the public on Tuesday to “use a scarf if you want ... rather than going out and getting a mask.”

So great. The benefit from regular folks wearing masks, especially in crowded places like the grocery store suddenly looks much more significant. But of course, there ARE no N95 grade masks from REPUTABLE makers for the American public.

And of course, when there aren't enough tests (or even close) for people with significant symptoms, there sure as HELL aren't enough tests to try to find the asymptomatic carriers.

Theres a world wide shortage of masks

Australia doesnt have enough most of our medical supplies were shipped to Wuhan in the early days
Hand sanitiser, masks, hazmat suit, thermometers all bought wholesale by 2 Chinese Construction firms based in Australia and shipped to China they did the same in Canada and Turkey and other countries they were based in

https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese ... 54du8.html

Shaved Monkey wrote:Theres a world wide shortage of masks

Australia doesnt have enough most of our medical supplies were shipped to Wuhan in the early days
Hand sanitiser, masks, hazmat suit, thermometers all bought wholesale by 2 Chinese Construction firms based in Australia and shipped to China they did the same in Canada and Turkey and other countries they were based in

https://www.smh.com.au/national/chinese ... 54du8.html

Australia has banned non essential surgery in both private and government hospitals to save the equipment still around while we wait to reach the peak.
Private hospital got paid to back up the public hospitals too
Locking the country down has reduced the need for a lot of hospital visits too
Less traffic accidents, less work injuries,less drunken brawls etc. so less stuff used

Wow, if it's over 50% show no symptoms, little wonder it's so easily spread with no clue about the danger.

Two-sided coin in that it means any calculation regarding % of deaths or % of serious infections vs flu-like symptoms that go away untreated is off by a very large factor. Also if that many people have it then it is surprising the spread hasn’t been faster than it has, perhaps the ultimate calculation of transmission rate will be smaller?

And, wow, THAT DIDN'T TAKE LONG to see another wave cranking up in China when they loosened restrictions! Last week I read about them getting things cranked up re factories, etc. and this week -- oops, another wave starting.

I don’t think this was surprising. China had it under control according to Westerners living there and reporting on conditions and all the indirect measures (factory outputs, traffic, pollution etc). So they open the airports for expanded travel and what do they get? People coming from other countries that were later on the curve than China and bring the disease back in. Obviously the infection rate didn’t hit everyone in China as they had closed down pretty quickly so now with airports open and disease coming back in there is still a large part of the population susceptible.

This also seems to kind of show that all the arm waving histrionics of how China is lying about everything and suppressing any bad news re COVID-19 cases is simply false.

Agreed, there are all sorts of ways of measuring what is actually happening there and by all measures, the country was coming off of restrictions and getting back to work. Starbucks opened up their shops as did Apple which wouldn’t have happened if the situation hadn’t improved.

So great. The benefit from regular folks wearing masks, especially in crowded places like the grocery store suddenly looks much more significant. But of course, there ARE no N95 grade masks from REPUTABLE makers for the American public.

I read an article where there were tests done on various fabrics with regards to the penetration of small particulate matter. Of course, properly worn, medical-grade masks come out on top blocking up to 95% but not all that far behind is simple double-layer cotton at around 85%, meaning if you are just going to a store, pull out your old really big bandana, fold it in two and wrap it around your face or better yet go to one of those military surplus shops and buy a Shemagh, hopefully, you won’t be mistaken for a terrorist or an Antifa supporter (I guess that is the same thing).

I think much of what the medical professions have said about individuals using masks has to do with the fact that if they aren’t fitted right they aren’t much use, they don’t cover your eyes which are also a path for infection, people tend to touch their face more often when they have a mask on, people get a false sense of security which is the last thing you want, you want people to be afraid enough that they wash their hands and limit their social encounters. Having a subway car full of patrons back to back all wearing masks is probably much worse right now than have 5 or 6 people in a car traveling because they have a critical role to play.

Something interesting I looked up. Everyone is panicking over the 100 K to 250 K death number that has been put out there by the government. Yearly there are about 2.8 MM deaths in the US (0.8% of the population) which means Covid deaths seem to make up a significant percentage of that death rate but overall that amounts to less than 1/2 of a percentage of the total population. In comparison deaths from heart disease makeup ~650 K annually, cancer about 600 K. Interestingly enough if you add together deaths from influenza and chronic low respiratory disease (kind of the Covid thing) you get around 210 K. I don't want to make this look less serious of a problem than it is but I can't help but think it is made ten times worse right now by the panicked over the top doomsday reporting in the press.

I just looked up death rate in the USA and it was 0.1% approximately, so 300,000 deaths per year.

So, we are looking at doubling that. Quite a big deal on the capacity side.

However, without lockdown, we will be at too many multiples to handle the workload until we come up with strategies to deal with this.

This is why one should ALWAYS elect a competent President. Crises like this will be coming more and more often and we can't use the Bible as our manual going forward.

Our choice between a mental juvenile President and a mental senile President seems like not the best set of options. We are not getting leadership on either side. Even the Democrats better start assembling a Pandemic team for this. However, they can't because they are all chicken-shits, wedded to their constituency that is leading them down a blind path.