Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Posted: **Thu 15 Sep 2005, 18:19:34**

See also THE US Unemployment Thread
Jobless claims took the highest jump over a week period in ten years. And the number is likely to be much higher because the gov. is not good at processing claims and many who would normally file are probably just now getting into a position to file. Jobless claims.

Add to that Fed chairmen Alan Greenspan issued another warning about the risk exposure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac who together own 1.5 trillion in home mortgages. Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae

And then we have what? four major airlines in bankruptcy. Ford and Gm not far behind on the need to file. Consumer spending is dropping and inflation is also increasing. Spending

Then of course we have the ever popular high oil prices and natural gas supply problem. This all adds up to a great depression worldwide. What do you guys think? What other bad news did I miss? Oh I left out the 200 billion dollar kick in the ding ding that was Katrina.

Posted: **Thu 15 Sep 2005, 18:23:12**

It's true that there are ominous signs out there, but the big jump in jobless claims is because the hurricane put so many people out of work. It doesn't necessarily say anything about the intrinsic strength of the economy.

Posted: **Thu 15 Sep 2005, 18:24:56**

Grimnir wrote:It's true that there are ominous signs out there, but the big jump in jobless claims is because the hurricane put so many people out of work. It doesn't necessarily say anything about the intrinsic strength of the economy.

Exactly.
In fact, I would have been suprised had there not been a jump in unemployment.
Addidtionally, airlines are always in bankruptcy. Jesus, they spend more time in court doing paperwork then they do flying planes.

Not to downplay the events, but a few of them are unrelated to current energy prices. Airlines however are influenced by it, but nonetheless airlines being broke is nothing new.

Posted: **Thu 15 Sep 2005, 18:46:05**

The gubment can prop all that stuff up. Heck, I heard they punched a mile wide meteor right outa the sky last Tuesday. :-D

Posted: **Fri 16 Sep 2005, 15:51:50**

Eli wrote:This all adds up to a great depression worldwide. What do you guys think?

This is all U.S.-centric news, not really an indicator of a worldwide depression. If anything the implosion of the U.S. economy will be good for the world as it will free up investment capital, currently wasted to finance the U.S.'s trade deficit, for other countries.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 09:47:51**

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers eliminated jobs in November at the fastest pace in 34 years and the unemployment rate jumped as the yearlong recession engulfing the world’s largest economy deepened.

Payrolls plunged by 533,000 last month, the biggest loss since December 1974, after shrinking a revised 320,000 the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

“The labor market capsized in November,” Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “The financial panic has hammered the economy and we are seeing a very broad-based decline in payrolls.”

1.91 Million Jobs Lost

Revisions for September and October increased job losses by 199,000. The 11th consecutive drop in payrolls brought the number of jobs eliminated so far this year to 1.91 million.

At 12 months, the recession is already the longest since the 16-month slump that ended in November 1982.
Bloomberg

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 10:22:28**

Just wait until Feb-March when the Holiday numbers come rolling in. I also bet the actual unemployment number is around 18% if they used the old system. And that doesn't even factor in people who have taken entry level jobs just to survive after they were let go from their original job. And you know these people aren't out spending money. By Summer of 2009, the word depression will be as popular as the word bail out has been.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 10:37:47**

So all of the sudden we are 12 months into a recession?

Don't you remember just recently when the media was feeding us a steady diet of "We're in a minor dip... now's a great time to buy a house... we've hit the bottom...we will see a turnaround any minute now!"

The job loss numbers are just staggering. I don't know what is going to stop this train. When we get into January and people start getting hit for Christmas spending and heating, I think the mood will sink even more. What are we going to do with all of these unemployed people who no longer have health insurance? I guess the local emergency rooms will be swamped with those seeking free care.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 10:38:29**

25% or BUST! A few more millions to go... who's counting any more? Let them eat cake.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 10:46:55**

IgnoranceIsBliss wrote:I guess the local emergency rooms will be swamped with those seeking free care.

They already are in southern california. They just aren't legal citizens.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 10:52:06**

U6 is 12.5%
U3 is 6.7%

From Bloomberg:
The average work week shortened to 33.5 hours, the lowest since records started in 1964, from 33.6 hours, today’s report showed. Average weekly hours worked by production workers dropped to 40.3 hours from 40.5 hours, while overtime decreased to 3.3 hours from 3.5 hours.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
In November, the labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage
point to 65.8 percent. Total employment continued to decline, and the employ-
ment-population ratio fell to 61.4 percent. (See table A-1.)

Here table shows how this has dropped in last ten years from over 64% to 61%. http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost

Even better I got it for 1948-2008 and in graph form.
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

So less people doing less work in the economy to support the rest in terms of taxes and social services, paying into unemployment funds, etc.

But we see from above tables that it only got up to so high a percentage of people having to work in mid 80s and is now coming back down. After this is all done we will be back to prevous post war level of ca. 57%,meaning most adult males plus a certain percentage of women before they marry or after kids have grown. I presume this is how it used to be ca. 1950s-1975. Lots of work in household to do which will reduce purchases of convenience foods and throwaway clothing articles, etc.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 11:53:45**

I was in the grocery store the other night and i overheard this fat pig of a lady talking about her work. I moved closer pretending i was looking at something (it could have been tampons...i wasn't paying attention). So this oversized beast continued to talk about how her hours had been cut, that now they don't have anyone cleaning the building so its very dirty, etc etc. This lady had enough in reserves to last 6 months without another paycheck. I didn't look what was in her cart, but i can imagine the snack food aisle needed RESTOCKING!

God i'm mean... forgive me

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 12:09:57**

frankthetank wrote:I was in the grocery store the other night and i overheard this fat pig of a lady talking about her work. I moved closer pretending i was looking at something (it could have been tampons...i wasn't paying attention). So this oversized beast continued to talk about how her hours had been cut, that now they don't have anyone cleaning the building so its very dirty, etc etc. This lady had enough in reserves to last 6 months without another paycheck. I didn't look what was in her cart, but i can imagine the snack food aisle needed RESTOCKING!

God i'm mean... forgive me

It's ok Frank. These obese among us are anachronistic features of this dying culture. Never before in the history of humanity has obesity and the acceptance of obesity been so widespread. We've even been creating bizarre medical excuses for this phenomenon rationalizing it based on a wide variety of creatively thought out chemical and biological processes.

Remember Curley? From the Three Stooges? Remember how we viewed him as the fat one?

Look again. Not so fat really, compared to what's the norm for 'fat' today.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 12:29:51**

(Increasing poverty could lead to more obesity, not less, since the fattening, unhealthy stuff is more affordable.)

Rising unemployment, underemployment, and the fear thereof among people who still have their jobs could create a vortex sucking down what's left of "the economy." It could swiftly negate the theoretical impact of the current conveyor belt of bailouts.

Then, with interest rates at zero and the treasury in the red up to its eyeballs, we will stand naked before our fate---in particular, naked before China's selling of its dollars. The final death thrust.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 12:36:28**

Heineken wrote:(Increasing poverty could lead to more obesity, not less, since the fattening, unhealthy stuff is more affordable.)

A bag of chips, a coke and a twinky cost a lot more than a bag of rice, but I think the problem is that lots of folks no longer know what to do with a bag of rice.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 12:40:35**

IgnoranceIsBliss wrote:So all of the sudden we are 12 months into a recession?

Don't you remember just recently when the media was feeding us a steady diet of "We're in a minor dip... now's a great time to buy a house... we've hit the bottom...we will see a turnaround any minute now!"

The job loss numbers are just staggering. I don't know what is going to stop this train. When we get into January and people start getting hit for Christmas spending and heating, I think the mood will sink even more. What are we going to do with all of these unemployed people who no longer have health insurance? I guess the local emergency rooms will be swamped with those seeking free care.

Continuing this pixie dust sprinkling MSM trend, CNBC now has a top page article suggesting this is probably the worst of it.

Unemployment rising. 10% of mortgages behind in payment and nearing foreclosure. Government bailouts. I just don't see any optimistic indicators.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 12:42:47**

Another aspect of all this.. the average workweek is now something like 33.3 hours. That means a lot of full time folks have been cut down to part-time.

Interestingly, the only sectors that added jobs was healthcare, government, and education.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 12:43:37**

Dune: Agreed.

All I'm saying is that in the poorer areas, both rural and urban, you tend to see more obesity. I suppose you're right, ignorance is the core reason for that.

But . . . look at the cost of fresh meats, fruits, and vegetables. Junk food is generally cheaper.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 12:45:41**

I swear I am gonna slap the next TV commentator who bables on about, oh the unemployment isnt that high, back in the depression it was 25-30%..

The idiot always fails to mention that if we counted unemployment the same way we did it the depression, we would be alot closer to that figure.

Posted: **Fri 05 Dec 2008, 13:01:58**

Impervius wrote:I swear I am gonna slap the next TV commentator who bables on about, oh the unemployment isnt that high, back in the depression it was 25-30%..

The idiot always fails to mention that if we counted unemployment the same way we did it the depression, we would be alot closer to that figure.

Reminds me of the old standby, "but oil was higher in January 1980, when adjusted for inflation, where it was $455 a barrel."

Peak Oil News and Message Boards

THE Unemployment Thread pt 2 (merged)

THE US Joblessness Thread (merged)

Re: Jobless claims see the biggest jump in Ten years.

Re: Jobless claims see the biggest jump in Ten years.

Re: Jobless claims see the biggest jump in Ten years.

Re: Jobless claims see the biggest jump in Ten years.

Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974

Re: Wow - 533,000 jobs gone in Nov., Most Since 1974