Peak Oil News and Message Boards

White House Rejects Fed Staff Outlook, Says No Sign of Recession (bloomberg.com) 3
Posted by msmash on Thursday April 13, 2023 @10:00AM from the how-about-that dept.
The White House said Thursday that data does not indicate a US recession is on the horizon, rebuffing Federal Reserve staff economists who forecast a minor contraction starting later this year. From a report:
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said job numbers and consumer spending are strong and chalked it up to President Joe Biden's economic plans, waving off a recession risk. "We're seeing the success of his plans, and recent economic indicators are not consistent with a recession or even a pre-recession," Jean-Pierre said Thursday when asked about the Fed forecast. Federal Reserve minutes published Wednesday indicated that "the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years."

Still, Fed officials appear on track to extend their run of interest-rate hikes, shrugging off the warning. Jean-Pierre pointed to job gains, the unemployment rate and consumer spending as indicators. She also said that inflation has been falling, though it remains well above target and may spur more Fed hikes, raising the chance of a recession. Still, the spokeswoman contradicted the warning of the Fed staff. "Those are the indicators that show us that we are not headed to a recession or a pre-recession," she said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -recession

BrianC wrote:White House Rejects Fed Staff Outlook, Says No Sign of Recession (bloomberg.com) 3
Posted by msmash on Thursday April 13, 2023 @10:00AM from the how-about-that dept.
The White House said Thursday that data does not indicate a US recession is on the horizon, rebuffing Federal Reserve staff economists who forecast a minor contraction starting later this year. From a report:
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said job numbers and consumer spending are strong and chalked it up to President Joe Biden's economic plans, waving off a recession risk. "We're seeing the success of his plans, and recent economic indicators are not consistent with a recession or even a pre-recession," Jean-Pierre said Thursday when asked about the Fed forecast. Federal Reserve minutes published Wednesday indicated that "the staff's projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years."

Still, Fed officials appear on track to extend their run of interest-rate hikes, shrugging off the warning. Jean-Pierre pointed to job gains, the unemployment rate and consumer spending as indicators. She also said that inflation has been falling, though it remains well above target and may spur more Fed hikes, raising the chance of a recession. Still, the spokeswoman contradicted the warning of the Fed staff. "Those are the indicators that show us that we are not headed to a recession or a pre-recession," she said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -recession

I love political nonsense like this. If the Federal Reserve is incompetent, then why in the hell do they still have their jobs? You sure can't argue it is because you think they know what they are doing.

Jean-Pierre pointed to job gains, the unemployment rate and consumer spending as indicators. She also said that inflation has been falling, though it remains well above target and may spur more Fed hikes, raising the chance of a recession. Still, the spokeswoman contradicted the warning of the Fed staff. "Those are the indicators that show us that we are not headed to a recession or a pre-recession," she said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -recession

AdamB wrote:
I love political nonsense like this. If the Federal Reserve is incompetent, then why in the hell do they still have their jobs? You sure can't argue it is because you think they know what they are doing.

Yeah, this is disappointing from a White House that is much less of a constant nonsense factory than it was under Trump. No question, when Jean-Pierrre is giving her White House briefings (once or twice a week when I watch them), she is right on message re protecting the administration, and a LOT of the message is what is politically expedient. It's just what politicians tend to do.

But the point IS that the Fed is a panel of serious economic experts with LOTS of education, not a pack of internet armchair quarterback doom-of-the-day trumpeting BOZOS (rife on the internet, especially since Covid-19 cranked up). And the White House, which has a hand in appointing the Fed, should acknowledge that.

I think it would be much better to say something like "Despite the claims of so much economic doom from so many, overall, things look very solid so far, even if the Fed is correct and we do have a minor recession", than try to "pump your own book" and just clearly show a lack of credibility.

I presume this week's inflation news is good (especially compared to the usual doom-spewers claims of what would happen), as the market seems to be reflecting. But yes, the Fed will watch the DATA OVER TIME, and react accordingly. And if WARRANTED, it will continue to raise rates. Plus, one month's data does NOT a series make.

BrianC wrote:The White House said Thursday that data does not indicate a US recession is on the horizon, rebuffing Federal Reserve staff economists who forecast a minor contraction starting later this year. From a report:
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said job numbers and consumer spending are strong and chalked it up to President Joe Biden's economic plans, waving off a recession risk. "We're seeing the success of his plans, and recent economic indicators are not consistent with a recession or even a pre-recession," Jean-Pierre said Thursday

We've already had more then enough time to see that when the White House boasts about the "success" of Joe Biden's plans, it means Joe Biden's plans have failed miserably. We've seen this when Joe Biden screwed up the US evacuation from Afghanistan, when Joe Biden falsely claimed inflation was transitory, when Joe Biden falsely claimed he would stop inflation, when Joe Biden falsely claimed he would lower the deficit, and when Joe Biden falsely claimed he would prevent the Russians from starting a war in Ukraine.


when the White House boasts about the "success" of Joe Biden's plans, it usually means Joe Biden's plans have failed miserably.

Now the White House is boasting that Joe Biden will prevent the coming recession. To me, based on Joe Biden's history of past policy failures, that sounds like a preemptive attempt to cover up the likelihood that Joe Biden's terrible economic policies are about to cause a recession.

Cheers!

Plantagenet wrote:We've already had more then enough time to see that when the White House boasts about the "success" of Joe Biden's plans, it means Joe Biden's plans have failed miserably. We've seen this when Joe Biden screwed up the US evacuation from Afghanistan, when Joe Biden falsely claimed inflation was transitory, when Joe Biden falsely claimed he would stop inflation, when Joe Biden falsely claimed he would lower the deficit, and when Joe Biden falsely claimed he would prevent the Russians from starting a war in Ukraine.

As you so often demonstrate, it's easy to type nonsense, especially political nonsense on internet comment threads.

Care to show us credible citations for when Biden claimed he would prevent Russia from starting a war in Ukraine, for example? Because with quick google searches, I don't see that.

And you know that Biden isn't the Fed, right? The Fed has been wrong about how quickly US inflation would come down. Biden trying to slow inflation is not Biden claiming he'll "stop inflation". Where are your credible citations for that, as again, I'm not seeing that with quick google searches.

Oh, and inflation IS slowing overall, but I know it would hurt your ilk terribly to admit that vs. try to maximize right wing political points denying it. Who needs credibility in politics, right?

Your frequent political babblespeak on this site for over a decade gets old. You could make valid points, if you could just be accurate instead of stooping to the usual massive distortion seen too often from both sides.

Waiting for a government agency to declare a recession is like waiting for it to declare the Vietnam "police action" a War. You might as well believe the unemployment figures.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:.... it's easy to type nonsense, especially political nonsense on internet comment threads.

"As you so often demonstrate."

Please forgive me for directly quoting you and turning your ad hom attack right back against you, but it was just too tempting.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Care to show us credible citations for when Biden claimed he would prevent Russia from starting a war in Ukraine

Why do you need citations? All this happened only a little more than a year ago. Do you really have to use GOOGLE to help you remember what happened a year ago?

Just use your memory. Or is it possible you don't remember what happened? Do you really have to use GOOGLE to help you remember what happened only a year ago? Thats a bad sign, bro.....

Can't you remember for yourself that Biden and others in his administration spent months before the invasion warning Russia over and over not to invade Ukraine or they would face sanctions and other horrible consequences? It was on the news just about every night for months? Can't you remember any of that??

Obviously Biden and the others in his administration were threatening Russia with sanctions if they invaded because they were trying to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

And, obviously, Biden failed to deter the Russian invasion because Russia actually invaded.

If you really don't remember that the Russians Invaded Ukraine in spite of Biden and his fellows spending months warning them not to invade, then you likely have a significant problem with your memory.

Outcast_Searcher wrote: Biden trying to slow inflation is not Biden claiming he'll "stop inflation"

Do I have to explain everything to you?

OK...I guess so. OK....let's review what happened with inflation.

Inflation started up right after Biden took office and the Ds passed multiple bills that spent trillions of dollars that we don't have.

And what did Biden and the Ds do then when inflation started up?

Biden and the Ds spent a solid year claiming that "inflation is transitory" so there was no need for the FED to raise interest rates, i.e. the Ds mounted a full-scale political pressure job on the FED to prevent them from doing their job and raising interest rates.

Even worse, Biden was set to nominate the FED Chairman in 2021 and Biden used his leverage to pressure the FED Chairman not to raise interest rates. If you remember Biden delayed the appointment for months while he and his treasury secretary and others in his administration all lied and claimed over and over again that inflation would be transitory so there was no need to raise interest rates. The FED can't act without a Chairman and Biden refused to appoint a new chairman of the FED. Biden delayed and delayed and delayed this appointment, all the while repeating their lies that inflation was transitory. Biden's political interference had the effect of paralyzing the FED for months.....And so raising the interest rate to combat inflation was put off until it was too late...and thats how inflation took hold in the economy. Of course thats all at least partly Biden's fault....his grimy little fingerprints are all over the inflation problem...from the obscene spending that triggered off the inflation to the lies about inflation being "transitory" to the political pressure from Biden and other Ds that delayed the appointment of the FED chairman, and so delayed the FED taking action.

I'm starting to worry about your memory, OUTCAST.


We're talking about things that happened only 1-2 years ago, but you seemingly don't seem to remember anything about them.

I hope you're OK. You used to be pretty sharp but now you mostly just childish post ad hom attacks based on things you can't even remember. It makes me worry about you----

Take care of yourself, old Buddy.

CHEERS!