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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Sun 19 Jan 2020, 09:17:18
by Armageddon
GDPNow Estimate Tumbles on Weak Retail Sales

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/api/amp/ ... ssion=true

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Sun 19 Jan 2020, 13:32:53
by evilgenius
Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:On January 17, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q42019 is 1.8 percent.


What happened to 2.3%?


What happened to the stock market crash that you have predicted for years?



I’ve been calling for DOW 30k. You aren’t going to see a crash for a while with the amount of printing, stimulus and rate cuts we’re having. The markets don’t care about data, only free money and rate cuts and Trump is begging for more....and he’ll get them

He is begging for more. His behavior surprises me. It crosses the line of an independent Fed. He puts pressure on with his appeal to conspiracy theory, that the Fed is the enemy of the people. He insinuates that any answer other than to give him what he wants is in alignment with that accusation.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Sun 19 Jan 2020, 14:02:59
by shortonoil
I missed where you said convert the data into a function.


Did you miss the toilet this morning also? It is a good thing that you still live with your mother! A distribution of data points must be structured into a function of some form to be useful. That could be a 1 to nth polynomial, logistic, exponential, logarithmic, etc. Otherwise it is nothing but a useless random set of values; sort of like you. Plotting the data points of your responses would look like the distribution produced from a blind folded, myopic monkey with Alzheimer throwing darts in a dark room. Back in the dark ages, like Hubbert's day, such curve fitting was done by hand. An accurate representation of a data set could take years. Hubbert's genius was very much in his ability to recognize a logistic function in a mass of otherwise random appearing data; which was no small feat even for a very experienced petrol-geologists. Hubbet accomplished, without the assistance of high speed computers, what thousands of other researchers hadn't in the previous century. Truly, an asounding feat. Today, of course, analysis of extremely large data sets can be undertaken in moments with the help of a simple laptop computer. It still requires an experienced researcher to select (guess) the proper form of the function to begin the process. For that reason you should probably stick to throwing darts.

When the Etp Model was constructed from a 2'nd Law statement, which uses as inputs the EIA production data set, and its output was represented by a logistic curve - Hubert's hypothesis was again confirmed. The nail in the proverbial skeptics' coffin was when the function plotted almost perfectly to the price of oil. The price of oil is the only variable available that we can be 99% certain is accurate. If that doesn't prove Hubbert's hypothesis, it is hard to say what would? Maybe a hand engraved golden plague from Arch Angle Gabriel would do it?



onlooker said:
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And as Short also correctly notes in the backgroud, depletion never rests. Oh but never fear we have our deniers here to assauge our concerns


All is definitely lost if we continue to deny that there could be a problem. Having a subset of the society, who for their own nefarious reasons, want to deflect any possible action to re-mediate, investigate, and then suppress those investigations if they do occur, the situation takes on the appearance of a form of social suicide. Maybe our civilization is not dying of petroleum depletion; other options where available. Maybe it is being purposely murdered by some who will gain a short term advantage. Maybe a critical level of sociopaths has been reached in out society. In the 70's there was a considerable amount of research going on regarding that very subject. Some concluded that as few as 5% of the population who became sociopaths would be fatal for the society. Looking at the number of wing nuts floating around out there, California may by itself tip the scales.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Sun 19 Jan 2020, 17:13:14
by onlooker
shortonoil wrote:


onlooker said:
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And as Short also correctly notes in the backgroud, depletion never rests. Oh but never fear we have our deniers here to assauge our concerns


All is definitely lost if we continue to deny that there could be a problem. Having a subset of the society, who for their own nefarious reasons, want to deflect any possible action to re-mediate, investigate, and then suppress those investigations if they do occur, the situation takes on the appearance of a form of social suicide. Maybe our civilization is not dying of petroleum depletion; other options where available. Maybe it is being purposely murdered by some who will gain a short term advantage. Maybe a critical level of sociopaths has been reached in out society. In the 70's there was a considerable amount of research going on regarding that very subject. Some concluded that as few as 5% of the population who became sociopaths would be fatal for the society. Looking at the number of wing nuts floating around out there, California may by itself tip the scales.

Short, it doesn't even have to be sociopaths just your garden variety greedy people. The addict to whatever doesn't care about longer term consequences. Just their next fix

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Sun 19 Jan 2020, 18:01:59
by Armageddon
U.S. Bankruptcies Rise in 2019 After Eight Years of Decline

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptc ... FA4F017A06


We are in the calm before the storm. The storm clouds can be seen on the horizon. Most people can’t see them because their head is in the sand.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Sun 19 Jan 2020, 20:19:15
by shortonoil
onlooker said:
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And as Short also correctly notes in the backgroud, depletion never rests. Oh but never fear we have our deniers here to assauge our concernse


All is definitely lost if we continue to deny that there could be a problem. Having a subset of the society, who for their own nefarious reasons, want to deflect any possible action to re-mediate, investigate, and then suppress those investigations if they do occur, the situation takes on the appearance of a form of social suicide. Maybe our civilization is not dying of petroleum depletion; other options where available. Maybe it is being purposely murdered by some who will gain a short term advantage. Maybe a critical level of sociopaths has been reached in out society. In the 70's there was a considerable amount of research going on regarding that very subject. Some concluded that as few as 5% of the population who became sociopaths would be fatal for the society. Looking at the number of wing nuts floating around out there, California may by itself tip the scales.

Short, it doesn't even have to be sociopaths just your garden variety greedy people. The addict to whatever doesn't care about longer term consequences. Just their next fix


I wouldn't deny the problem, and then blame it on Joe Six. Joe may often be greedy, but he is rarely amoral. He is not likely to burn down the house, and his kids with it to collect the insurance. The sociopath has no qualms, and is ready to justify his behavior. Because they are usually above average intelligence, they are very good at it. Unhinged, clever, and dangerous. Their deranged mental state also appears to be quite contagious.


I’ve been calling for DOW 30k. You aren’t going to see a crash for a while with the amount of printing, stimulus and rate cuts we’re having. The markets don’t care about data, only free money and rate cuts and Trump is begging for more....and he’ll get them


Equity outflows are huge, volume is pathetic, and stock buy backs (the sole agent for the rise of this market to date) are dying. The FED may be shooting at 30K, where or not they make it could be a different story.

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Mon 20 Jan 2020, 10:58:35
by shortonoil
IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast For 6th Consecutive Time, Warns "Climate Change" Will Hit Economy
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/imf ... e-will-hit

And the most amusing risk, one not seen before, climate change:

Weather-related disasters such as tropical storms, floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires have imposed severe humanitarian costs and livelihood loss across multiple regions in recent years. Climate change, the driver of the increased frequency and intensity of weather-related disasters, already endangers health and economic outcomes, and not only in the directly affected regions. It could pose challenges to other areas that may not yet feel the direct effects, including by contributing to cross-border migration or financial stress (for instance, in the insurance sector). A continuation of the trends could inflict even bigger losses across more countries.
But... but... whatever happened to the idiotic Keynesian "broken window" mantra: after all, what better reason to rebuild something over, and over, and over again than arson "global warming" causing all those Australian fires. Oh wait, it was arson. Nevermind, point still stands.

Perhaps the most ominous sign is that despite the "end" of the trade war, global trade volume forecasts were cut again, by 0.3% and 0.1% in 2020 and 2021 to 2.9% and 3.7%, respectively. The good news: both are an improvement to the dismal 1.0% recorded in 2019. Expect these numbers to be substantially cut in the coming quarters as the much anticipated global trade renaissance fails to emerge.


No mention of the exploding debt, central bank marathon printing, or fossil fuel depletion? In their place we get the "biggest snow job in history"; climate change.

"Once the rockets go up, who cares where they come down. That's not my department said Wernher von Braun". They will say NOTHING that upsets the Stock Market!! They know exactly what side their bread is buttered on!

Image

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Mon 20 Jan 2020, 17:58:56
by Armageddon
Baltic Dry Continues Epic Plunge As IMF Slashes Global GDP Forecast

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postPosted: Mon 20 Jan 2020, 19:28:27
by marmico