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Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Sat 31 Aug 2019, 02:45:58
by EdwinSm
Recently several of the Trump tweets (mostly about China and trade) have created significant short term moves of the stock market. These tweets would be a wonderful opportunity for a personal great economic boom, for any advisor who had even a short prior knowledge of what was coming.

[A possible fallacy in the above is the assumption that the tweets are planned and not just stream of consciousness productions.]

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Sat 31 Aug 2019, 12:49:55
by asg70
Trump can't even plan a bowel movement.

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Sat 31 Aug 2019, 13:28:33
by Outcast_Searcher
EdwinSm wrote:Recently several of the Trump tweets (mostly about China and trade) have created significant short term moves of the stock market. These tweets would be a wonderful opportunity for a personal great economic boom, for any advisor who had even a short prior knowledge of what was coming.

[A possible fallacy in the above is the assumption that the tweets are planned and not just stream of consciousness productions.]

Yup, I'd wondered about that.

Given that Trump doesn't have his money in a blind trust (which implies multi-year planning, BTW), not difficult to tip his sons that he'll have a positive or negative tweet of substance re China on day X, and let them buy some options (say S&P 500 short term options near the money) for nice profits at relatively low risk when the market moves X hundred points in response to the tweets, frequently.

Despite all the whining by the left, even Trump can clearly plan a day or a week.

Oh, and speaking of lack of planning, even congress critters who govern with 3 Stooges like efficiency will likely take advantage of such tweets if they can manage to get clued in ahead of time. After all, they undid large parts of the STOCK act, designed to prevent that.

https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpoli ... rading-law

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Sat 31 Aug 2019, 13:32:48
by Outcast_Searcher
asg70 wrote:Trump can't even plan a bowel movement.

Now there's a substantive, well reasoned comment, with great sources, worthy of, say, the ETP Bozo.

I'm no Trump fan, but really, stooping to this is a good thing?

If I said something similar about Obama, re some of his policies, his broken promises, etc., then the left would shriek that I was a "racist". (This happened multiple times while Obama was in office, BTW, but not on this site that I recall.)

Politics. So much "truth". :roll:

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Sat 31 Aug 2019, 18:42:28
by rockdoc123
Given that Trump doesn't have his money in a blind trust (which implies multi-year planning, BTW), not difficult to tip his sons that he'll have a positive or negative tweet of substance re China on day X, and let them buy some options (say S&P 500 short term options near the money) for nice profits at relatively low risk when the market moves X hundred points in response to the tweets, frequently.


You don't think that the SEC and the rabid left aren't watching his every move? If any of the former Trump related companies bought or sold stock anywhere near any of these tweets and was seen to profit from it the SEC would be all over them.
I'm neither a fan nor a hatter but I don't think he is that stupid.

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Sun 01 Sep 2019, 13:33:10
by Outcast_Searcher
rockdoc123 wrote:
Given that Trump doesn't have his money in a blind trust (which implies multi-year planning, BTW), not difficult to tip his sons that he'll have a positive or negative tweet of substance re China on day X, and let them buy some options (say S&P 500 short term options near the money) for nice profits at relatively low risk when the market moves X hundred points in response to the tweets, frequently.


You don't think that the SEC and the rabid left aren't watching his every move? If any of the former Trump related companies bought or sold stock anywhere near any of these tweets and was seen to profit from it the SEC would be all over them.
I'm neither a fan nor a hatter but I don't think he is that stupid.

You might be right, but given the general incompetence of the SEC and government in general, and given all the various shenanigans (I love that word) that Trump has a history of re taxes, etc. -- let's just say it wouldn't surprise me at all.

For example, do you really think the rabid left has a CLEAR picture of ALL of Trump's assets? Including, for example, foreign trusts which he doesn't disclose, or all his complex tax structures? Frankly, I'd be AMAZED if they did.

To get such a picture, good forensic accountant(s) would need a GOOD look at ALL his REAL books for quite a while. GIven the fight with Trump over simply disclosing income taxes, somehow, I don't think anything CLOSE to that sort of examination has happened.

There are also much more complex and non-obvious financial structures to use besides something simple I used for an ease-of-understanding example like S&P 500 options. Given how far behind the times the SEC is (see Flash Boys book, for example), it wouldn't surprise me if they wouldn't even have lots of those on its radar, even if it could find the transactions.

So am I confident my speculation here is correct? No, of course not. But do I think there's a good possibility of that, given Trump's track record? Yes, I do, or I wouldn't have suggested it.

...

Thanks, by the way, for disagreeing with me without any vitriol, name, calling, etc. This site would be so much better if people could disagree on different ideas and discuss them, like adults. I think we'd all likely learn more in such an environment, over time.

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Sun 01 Sep 2019, 23:48:53
by Cog
Trumps tax structures are between him and the IRS. If they don't have an issue with them why do you? As far as insider trading goes, it sounds just like the claims that Trump was a Russian agent for the past three years. It's easy to claim such nonsense without a shred of evidence and then slink away when no evidence is forthcoming.

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Wed 04 Sep 2019, 14:19:37
by Outcast_Searcher
Cog wrote:Trumps tax structures are between him and the IRS. If they don't have an issue with them why do you? As far as insider trading goes, it sounds just like the claims that Trump was a Russian agent for the past three years. It's easy to claim such nonsense without a shred of evidence and then slink away when no evidence is forthcoming.

Actually, I don't. I'm using them as a concrete example of how little is known by the government re his day to day financial dealings, and why it's not unreasonable to imagine that he COULD profit, re his trusts through his sons, by his market-moving tweets re the trade war.

Please stop accusing me of things I'm in no way doing, just because you're defensive about Trump. You have pretty much the entire left wing to attack on that front justifiably. I defend Trump on front X, re principles, and criticize him on front Y, on other principles. If people can't handle that in the US -- they shouldn't run for elective office, much less become president, since free speech theoretically is a thing here.

Now, if you can clearly show that I have an "issue" with Trump's tax structures and said so above, be sure and point that out. Because if that's the case, I'll correct my language.

Hint: Stating that they exist (and implying the book-keeping complexity they most certainly entail), which I did, is pointing out a fact: Trump has complex finances. However, that IN NO WAY means I have "an issue" with them. See how that works?

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Wed 04 Sep 2019, 15:40:10
by GHung
Cog wrote:Trumps tax structures are between him and the IRS. If they don't have an issue with them why do you? ........


Why? Because Trump works for me. He's not a King, not the CEO of a private company. He is an EMPLOYEE of the American people who has extraordinary responsibilities and security risks, most of which he has thumbed his nose at. When I was employed by the government, and then private entities working for the government, they looked at pretty much EVERYTHING in my background. And I was just a lowly technician.
It isn't just about Trump's taxes, it's about a lifelong pattern of avoiding any accountability at all. It's about a lifelong pattern of dishonesty while putting Trump first and only. That you constantly and persistently defend this behavior says everything about your own character.
Now go ahead and say something juvenile and idiotic like "sorry your girl lost", as you always do when you have zero defense.

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Wed 04 Sep 2019, 16:59:21
by Cog
By all means ghung, if you and your leftist buddies have evidence of wrong doing by Trump bring it forth. In the meantime I will accord him the presumption of innocence, which is due him,like any other American.

Re: Trump’s Great Economic Boom

Unread postPosted: Wed 04 Sep 2019, 17:07:01
by rockdoc123
Why? Because Trump works for me.


no he doesn't, he wasn't even elected by you (assuming you might have voted for him which I doubt). He was elected by members of the electoral college. But he doesn't work for them either. Instead, his responsibility is implementing and enforcing laws written by Congress so to some extent he "works" for them. Now you can elect to cast your vote against the Republican Party next fall but that is the only extent to which he worries about what you think.

He is an EMPLOYEE of the American people who has extraordinary responsibilities and security risks, most of which he has thumbed his nose at.


please outline where he has ignored legal responsibilities. He is not legally required to disclose past tax statements, he can if he so choses which he does not. And according to 18 U.S.C. 207 (I think that is the one) the President and Vice President are excluded from being considered under the defintion of Employee.