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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Literature about oil discoveries and the stock marker price.

Unread postby ImreJansen » Fri 22 Feb 2013, 10:09:28

Hello,

I'm doing a research for the University of Groningen(the Netherlands). It is an event study(the effect of unknown happening on the stock market price) and I want to focus on the relation between oil discoveries and the price of the shares of oil digging/refining companies based in South-America. I have seen there is lots of information on this website about oil discoveries in the world but I'm missing literature to base my research on.

Is there anyone who know where I can find literature of the effect of new oil discoveries? I would really appreciate it if someone could give me a hand or could point me in the right direction.

Thanks,

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Tokyo Stock Exchange Trading Hours

Unread postby probablenik21 » Thu 15 Dec 2016, 01:51:06

Regular trading hours for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) are Monday to Friday with an opening time of 9:00 a.m. and a closing time of 3:00 p.m. Each day it is open, the Tokyo exchange closes midday from 11:00 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. local time. Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of New York.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange equities and equity derivatives segment will be closed to observe a number of holidays throughout the year.

EDIT to remove link bait. If you want people to visit your site make it sound interesting and useful and let them look up the link or PM you for the link themselves.
Last edited by Tanada on Thu 15 Dec 2016, 08:01:06, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed link bait
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Re: Tokyo Stock Exchange Trading Hours

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 15 Dec 2016, 10:44:51

What's funny is wasting time hitting this site. All I can imagine is that some "keyboard commando" was running behind his quota and needed to add anyone. But a mildly amusing distraction: man does not live by G-T-L discussions alone. LOL.
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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 11:26:31

GHung wrote:So your position is that they can? That they can keep juicing dysfunctional economies indefinitely?


My point isn't that it won't unwind but simply that doomers can't predict how or when this will unwind. I was once worried about currency collapse back when Peter Schiff managed to get on TV a lot. That was a good decade ago. I can't hold onto a day-in-day-out nail-biting state of panic over "imminent" collapse forever.

Besides, strip it all away and I don't think the economy is as dysfunctional as the numbers suggest. At a fundamental level, the energy flows that sustain BAU are obviously sufficient. If this were not the case then we'd already be suffering a malthusian catastrophe. Borrowing money can't manufacture carrying capacity. The reverse is true though in the sense that a country that goes broke can enter into end of the world conditions purely due to its financial situation, but that tends to work itself out someway or another, as it did in Iceland, etc... So the whole debt bubble thing feels like a lesser concern. Real doom will involve actual biophysical shortages of energy and food, not just those imposed by economic systems.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 13:04:55

shortonoil wrote:
"Analysis" like yours is so nonsensical.


Nonsensical? So this is what you pass off for analysis! Is this complete with wooden nickles?

Says the "expert" who's predictions are consistently wrong thus far, and can't even spell nickel.

And doesn't recognize inflation in his BTU cost calculations. :roll:

For your "widsom", nonsensical is indeed the right word.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 13:12:01

asg70 wrote:
shortonoil wrote:"Oil prices rebound on signs of U.S. shale production slowing"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices ... 1548241726


Be careful, Short.

Oil prices rebounding would mean classic supply & demand dynamics which would reinforce ETP's invalidity. It's the same reason you still owe on that failed bet (see sig).

He just shifts the news to claim short term doom, whether it makes any sense, or is entirely inconsistent with other things he says or not.

It's not surprising if production ebbs when oil prices go meaningfully lower, especially as the potential/perception of global recession rises (implying lower global oil consumption for months or years).

Meanwhile, he pretends the global economy is about to "collapse", though if oil were so expensive people couldn't afford it (re bogus MAP line descending to zero rapidly), then lower prices would be EXCELLENT news for consumers and the global economy.

He can't have it both ways, but he's too irrational to see it, and CERTAINLY would be unwilling to admit even if he did see it, given the reputation he's earned on this site, re the body of his comments.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 14:15:02

The S&P 500 seems to be on its next leg down.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 16:40:26

Did it ever occur to you guys that you are no more than the Yin to Short's Yang?


Perhaps you are speculating on an area of philosophy that is beyond their capacity to comprehend? I don't try to explain quantum mechanics to my dog either!

It seems like everyone is jumping on the Shale in decline bandwagon, and asking if existing DUC completion can arrest the decline. The answer is obvious, and that is no. Otherwise there wouldn't be 8,376 DUC. Completion has always been, and obviously still is the bottleneck in Shale. If the monetary system doesn't fall apart before hand, the DUC only have the capacity to extend the Shale era by a few months. If all 8,376 DUC were completed it would amount to 48% of this year's legacy decline. Its production will fall regardless. We will then have stagnant, or falling price and falling production. That will be the last two nails in the oil coffin.

Observerbrb
The Army is taking positions across the country and some protesters have been killed by live fire from police/soldiers. Venezuela is going down the toilet as we speak (I can look for more info in real time because I speak Spanish and I am in touch with people from there).


With Venezuelan production, and US Shale going down very close to one another the world is going to get a serious wake-up call. Petroleum is a finite commodity, and we have been pumping on it as fast as possible for 159 years! It required 4 years for the most corrupt, badly managed, low quality major producer to collapse after the 2014 price collapse. The second should be coming up any time now.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 17:39:11

Existing Home Sales Plunge; Biggest Year-on-Year Drop Since 2011


8O
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 19:06:58

Oh my God we are all going to die. Please buy shorty's photocopy paper for $100 and save yourself.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 19:19:37

Oh my God we are all going to die. Please buy shorty's photocopy paper for $100 and save yourself.


If we could only find one; more fantasy if you believe one exists.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 21:23:34

Off topic Venezuela posts moved to the appropriate thread VENEZUELA, please stay on topic!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 21:41:31

Armageddon wrote:Existing Home Sales Plunge; Biggest Year-on-Year Drop Since 2011

8O

When US housing is booming, doomers complain how inaffordable it is, and imply (or say outright) how that means we're all doomed.

When US housing slows down, doomers complain it is going down, implying it means doom.

In reality, the point that this should help cool escalating home prices, at least for awhile, should be a good thing, given all the fear and trembling at the high prices by doomers. :roll:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/22/decembe ... ected.html

For the umpteenth time, be sure and get back to us when some actual doom (vs. normal economic cycles) shows up.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 21:45:24

Cog wrote:Oh my God we are all going to die. Please buy shorty's photocopy paper for $100 and save yourself.


:lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Venezuela Thread pt 4 (merged)

Unread postby Observerbrb » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 06:26:51

Germany's PMI was out today, it showed contraction in the manufacturing sector. You can notice the trend

Image

EU#PMI signals #euroarea edging closer to stagnation in early 2019 (pointing to just 0.1% q/q growth in Q1). Makes arguments for downside growth risk assessment from #ECB even stronger, as 'ongoing broad-based expansion' has turned into 'ongoing, broad-based slowdown'.

Meanwhile, in France...

French Business Activity Weakest in Over Four Years in January-PMI

PARIS, Jan 24 — French business activity fell unexpectedly this month, pulling back at the fastest rate in over four years in the face of weakening demand and the impact of anti-government protests, a survey showed on Thursday.

Data compiler IHS Markit said that its preliminary composite monthly purchasing managers index (PMI) fell to 47.9 points from 48.7 in December, confounding economists' expectations on average for an improvement to 51.0.

From the NYT
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Re: THE Venezuela Thread pt 4 (merged)

Unread postby Observerbrb » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 06:33:01

French Services PMI

Image

@jsblokland
Wow! #France Services #PMI craters to 47.5 in January. #YellowVests
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 08:13:30

Oh my God we are all going to die. Please buy shorty's photocopy paper for $100 and save yourself.


If we could only find one; more fantasy thinking on your part if you believe one exists. Of course if you were capable of a little basic math someone might actually pay attention to you.

December 2018,
US shale production 8.03 mb/d.
Legacy decline 17.8% per year (89% first 60 months)
Yearly decline 8.03 mb/d * 0.178 = 1.43 mb/d
New production per operating rig 679 barrels per day*1
Rigs required to compensate for decline = 1.43 mb/d/ 679 = 2106 rigs
There are now less than 900 rigs running in the shale patch

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The age of Shale is over, and the remainder of the oil age is following close behind!


1) https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
2) http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 08:23:41

Trump administration warning US economy might not grow in Q1

https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the ... r-of-2019/


Pretty much what I was saying. I also said negative GDP by Q2.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 08:27:23

Countries Are Beginning To Stockpile Gold


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... kpile-gold

I wonder what they know and are expecting?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 08:36:15

Pretty much what I was saying. I also said negative GDP by Q2.


actually what you said was recession by end Q2 which is impossible given we are still positive GDP in first quarter and you need two consecutive quarters of negative GDP to be in an official recession.
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