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Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 13:51:10
by GHung
Cog wrote:I understand you don't have 67 senators in your pocket to remove Trump from office. Perhaps your math is common core.

I have a $100 dollar bet with Ibon that Trump will serve out his term. Want to go $100 with me Vt?


Whether or not he serves out his term, he's becoming a lame duck even before he's been in office two years. Further, after the midterm debacle for Republicans, I'm betting a lot of them, even in the Senate, are carefully reviewing their automatic partisan support for this President. Beyond Trumps minority of unquestioning worshipers, it looks like most American voters are growing tired of uncertainty and our dysfunctional executive branch. The novelty is wearing off, and most people understand that Faustian bargains are never much of a bargain.

The rest of the world sees the US as a laughing stock. I think that matters to most folks.

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Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 14:11:02
by Cog
Sorry your girl lost ghung. You too vt.

Actually most American patriots couldn't give a rat's ass what the world thinks of us. I'll leave that concerned thinking to the left coast liberals. From my standpoint, if the president is pissing off liberals and eurosocialists he is doing what I voted for.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 15:29:50
by Pops
I underestimated the extent to which partisanship has replaced religion in the US. trump (and Obama before) are objects of reverence and virtually immune to rebuke by their own. Frankly I don’t know what it would take for R senators to vote to convict trump on impeachment. Not that they are doing anything crazy, or are cowed by trump, they are merely representing the newly refined base of their party. Frankly, I had no idea just how skeered those old, uneducated white guys are about their place in the world— being one myself I'm doubly surprised. If OWG don't all shoot ourselves in the head (or vein) first, we'll be out in force for whomever the Rs put up in 2020—call it suicide by vote. (that's prediction one I guess)

It could be that senators grow a backbone if Mueller comes up with receipts from vlad and MBS. They have a couple of times, sanctioning russia and now KSA, but I'm not holding my breath. As the heat rises around trump he may decide to declare his work done and decline to run again — unless being POTUS seems like the only way to avoid jail, LOL. Admitting he's a loser is against character, but running from failure is not, so... I guess I'll predict he won't run or maybe loses out to someone even more overtly racist (#2).

Obama made clear to low information white voters, just by showing up, which was the party of non-whites. Prior to '08, going back to at least '92, high school educated whites were about equally split between Ds & Rs. Obama's smiling brown face forced those "conservative" whites to realize they belong with the Rs. Just as trump has forced liberals more to the left out of sheer disgust. So #3 is this situation won't soon change: Rs will increasingly elect white males and the next pres nominee will more than likely be even more overtly racist than trump—who is probably about your average old bigot but smartly marketed himself to the trailer trash rebel flag cohort. As has been said, at least the racists think he's racist. (That will go down with "it's the economy, stupid")

By the same token, the Ds really have no choice but to run women, non-whites, young people and left-wingers now that Obama ran off the Ds-by-inheritance (the aforementioned trailer trash rebels). So even though I personally like Uncle Joe, even though he's a corporatist, he or any other old white guy just isn't going to attract the aforementioned voters that trump flipped, they are gone for good. I'm somewhat more class warrior than civil rights defender so Bernie/Liz are more to my liking but they are in the same boat.

And, as the old saw goes, Rs fall in line, Ds fall in love. Barry, Bill, Jimmy—and Bernie too, were mostly unknowns who took the party by storm, while Hilary and Gore were old news and brought none of the... revolutionary (I guess) zeal that Ds like.

But being demographically out of sync with the younger "sectionalist" base I don't really have a prediction for the Ds nominee except they are more likely than not to be younger, browner and more x than y.


Image http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 15:50:08
by GHung
Cog wrote:Sorry your girl lost ghung. You too vt.

Actually most American patriots couldn't give a rat's ass what the world thinks of us. I'll leave that concerned thinking to the left coast liberals. From my standpoint, if the president is pissing off liberals and eurosocialists he is doing what I voted for.


Not sure why you keep using the idiotic "your girl" comment. It really exposes your weaknesses. And please define what you mean by "patriots". People who support leaders who exhibit every character trait virtually all of our institutions (religious, sporting, parental, even the Boy Scouts) warn us about and encourage us to avoid being like? That would be your President; a truly horrible human being according to my standards. That has nothing at all to do with "your girl" or anyone else. If you can support that, for whatever reason, it's a bad reflection of your own character.

Anyway, Trump and his supporters will be flushed to the cesspool of history in due time if enough true patriots still live in this country, just as all of the asshole leaders of history eventually have. Their supporters are the real losers. The bad jokes of history.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 15:58:45
by GHung
Thanks, Pops, but my opposition is much more fundamental than politics. It's about right and wrong. Maybe that has fallen to the wayside as our society declines (certainly hope not), and maybe it's naive, but that is the way I was raised; who I am.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:11:09
by vtsnowedin
Cog wrote:Sorry your girl lost ghung. You too vt.

I have never voted for a Clinton and didn't vote for Trump. I used to think Trump would last until the New Hampshire Primary and then bow out at the end of his term. Events of this last week have changed my mind on that but understand I was never biased towards him in the first place and am just observing the trends as they develop.
And no I don't have enough confidence in his future to bet more then a cup of coffee on it.
The idea that Pelosi might fall into the office by default is pretty scary though and is certainly possible by the current rules.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:16:33
by Pops
GHung wrote:Thanks, Pops, but my opposition is much more fundamental than politics. It's about right and wrong. Maybe that has fallen to the wayside as our society declines (certainly hope not), and maybe it's naive, but that is the way I was raised; who I am.

Do you mean your opo to trump or Rs in general, or something else?

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:18:58
by Cog
vtsnowedin wrote:
Cog wrote:Sorry your girl lost ghung. You too vt.

I have never voted for a Clinton and didn't vote for Trump. I used to think Trump would last until the New Hampshire Primary and then bow out at the end of his term. Events of this last week have changed my mind on that but understand I was never biased towards him in the first place and am just observing the trends as they develop.
And no I don't have enough confidence in his future to bet more then a cup of coffee on it.
The idea that Pelosi might fall into the office by default is pretty scary though and is certainly possible by the current rules.


I'm very sorry your girl lost. Here is a meme for you.

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Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:22:01
by Cog
GHung wrote:Thanks, Pops, but my opposition is much more fundamental than politics. It's about right and wrong. Maybe that has fallen to the wayside as our society declines (certainly hope not), and maybe it's naive, but that is the way I was raised; who I am.


So Hillary Clinton's pay for play schemes with the Clinton Foundation didn't disgust you? You have a very interesting moral center that seems to shift with the leftist tides.

Sorry your girl lost.

Again

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:28:51
by vtsnowedin
I see a stupid oversized meme but fail to see any rational discussion of the prediction I put forward.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:31:30
by Cog
But you don't have the courage to back your prediction to the extent you will bet on it. I will bet you a $100 that Trump serves out his term. If you don't have the money or need to ask your wife's permission to wager it, I will understand.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:36:07
by Plantagenet
Pops wrote: I don’t know what it would take for R senators to vote to convict trump on impeachment.


Evidence of an impeachable offense would be a good place to start.

Anyway, the question isn't what the Rs will do.....its what will the Ds do. The House of Representatives is in charge of impeachment, and the Ds will soon control the House of Representatives.

So the real question at hand is what it would take for the Ds to vote to impeach Trump. And frankly, I don't know. The Ds are more then happy to go on TV and talk about Trump's impeachment, but when it come to actually doing something and voting for impeachment, I don't see much appetite for it from Nancy Pelosi and the other geriatric D dinosaurs who the Ds have put in control of the House.

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Impeach Trump? No way....I'm busy all next year...I'll be getting ready for my 80th birthday party!!!!!

Cheers!

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:36:23
by GHung
Pops wrote:
GHung wrote:Thanks, Pops, but my opposition is much more fundamental than politics. It's about right and wrong. Maybe that has fallen to the wayside as our society declines (certainly hope not), and maybe it's naive, but that is the way I was raised; who I am.

Do you mean your opo to trump or Rs in general, or something else?


Trump, especially. I'm a hard-core Independent and have no special affinity (or disdain) for either party. It's tough being a non-binary person in today's America, and both parties have made that problematic, drawing lines moving far right/left, rejecting balance and pragmatism on party grounds. Trump is both unbalanced and unbalancing, and I consider his form of chaos dangerous in these times.

Pretty sure he has no real friends. That says a lot.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:42:03
by GHung
Cog wrote:
GHung wrote:Thanks, Pops, but my opposition is much more fundamental than politics. It's about right and wrong. Maybe that has fallen to the wayside as our society declines (certainly hope not), and maybe it's naive, but that is the way I was raised; who I am.


So Hillary Clinton's pay for play schemes with the Clinton Foundation didn't disgust you? You have a very interesting moral center that seems to shift with the leftist tides.

Sorry your girl lost.

Again


Another Trumpesque, lying post. I never supported Clinton either. But I've told you that. What really sucks is being a pragmatist caught between so many fools who only see black and white. Sometimes it's best to not chose between awful choices, sit it out, and deal with the awful consequences that follow. So here I am.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:44:20
by GHung
vtsnowedin wrote:I see a stupid oversized meme but fail to see any rational discussion of the prediction I put forward.


So you want a rational discussion based on a truly irrational situation? Not sure that's rational.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:45:54
by Pops
Plantagenet wrote:Anyway, the question isn't what the Rs will do.....its what will the Ds do. The House of Representatives is in charge of impeachment,

The Senate is in charge of removal, and requires 60 votes.
You'll remember Clinton was impeach but not removed and his approval spiked to 75%
I call that the Full Gingrich
lol

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:45:54
by Pops
Plantagenet wrote:Anyway, the question isn't what the Rs will do.....its what will the Ds do. The House of Representatives is in charge of impeachment,

The Senate is in charge of removal, and requires 60 votes.
You'll remember Clinton was impeach but not removed and his approval spiked to 75%
I call that the Full Gingrich
lol

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:48:50
by KaiserJeep
Similar to my own thoughts. However I always vote for somebody, usually a Libertarian or Independant candidate. Even though we have freedom of speech, the way I figure, you vote to renew your license to complain about politics.

Trump is actually a Populist, one of many in American History. He'd have taken the Democratic candidacy if he had been running against a Republican incumbent. The Populist has to oppose the party currently in power, as his base is the dissatisfied.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:55:30
by Pops
KaiserJeep wrote:Trump is actually a Populist, one of many in American History. He'd have taken the Democratic candidacy if he had been running against a Republican incumbent. The Populist has to oppose the party currently in power, as his base is the dissatisfied.

come on man, after 7 years of birther conspiracy you think he could have won the D nomination, that's pretty funny you gotta admit.

Re: President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Unread postPosted: Fri 14 Dec 2018, 16:56:00
by vtsnowedin
Cog wrote:But you don't have the courage to back your prediction to the extent you will bet on it. I will bet you a $100 that Trump serves out his term. If you don't have the money or need to ask your wife's permission to wager it, I will understand.

Save the adhoms.