Peak Oil News and Message Boards

It’s easy to get lulled into complacency by synchronized global growth, easy financial conditions and super-low economic and financial market volatility. Yet, while the current macro environment and outlook appear better than many of the younger market participants can remember, the last time a similar combination prevailed was in 2006 – and that didn’t end well. Eleven years on, we don’t think another major financial crisis is likely over our cyclical horizon spanning the next six to 12 months. However, then as now, when the macroeconomic environment is as good as it gets and valuations are tight, it is time to emphasize caution, capital preservation and diversified sources of carry away from the crowded trades. Note: you just read our main high-level investment conclusion based on vigorous internal discussions at our September Cyclical Forum. Here’s more on the debate and the ..