Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Market recovery underway as Global currency hoarding nears an end!

Global Markets continue to indicate trade settlements underway!

For those who are not Doom and Gloom Sayers I have been accumulating Wealth Creation Equities for better than three weeks when the indications of a Market Recovery began to arise.

GL

Ummm, are you serious!?

The stable USD and JPY are both incredible poor usage of oxymoron's...

Please respond...

Printing more and more money backed by absolutely nothing at all will lead to deflation. Got it.

After having read that crash course (all 20 chapters very good watching) you begin to see just how fucked we are and how hopeless the positions of people like money are. Ive been working on food security but for financial security I think buying and keeping gold may be the best bet. People like money there can sit around and imagine everything is going to be okay i'm going to prepare.

Delphis wrote:Ummm, are you serious!?
The stable USD and JPY are both incredible poor usage of oxymoron's... Please respond...

LOL!

A true sign of intellect in your own mind!

You post a quote from a scientist which even the 1st year Physicist has learned most of all that Einstein considering Tipler or Giancoli have surpass the teacher!

Considering your self proclaimed intellect!

Answer this!
There are no tricks, just pure logic, so good luck and don't give up.
1. In a street there are five houses, painted five different colours.
2. In each house lives a person of different nationality
3. These five homeowners each drink a different kind of beverage, smoke different brand of cigar and keep a different pet.

THE QUESTION: WHO OWNS THE FISH?
Sir, answer the question and I may consider you point of view!

LOL!

FireJack wrote:After having read that crash course (all 20 chapters very good watching) you begin to see just how Fark we are and how hopeless the positions of people like money are. Ive been working on food security but for financial security I think buying and keeping gold may be the best bet. People like money there can sit around and imagine everything is going to be okay i'm going to prepare.

Fellows,
Currency is backed by your word and hard work not that of the Central Banks but the confidence that the man you are trading with has in you and you integrity and worth!

Never forget that its simply another form of trade just as the natural resources really have no value until they have been extracted or the corn until its been harvested!

Gold has limited value that value has no greater value than a meal to a hungry man or a pick axe to a jeweler.

“Art is the beautiful way of doing things. Science is the effective way of doing things. Business is the economic way of doing things.”
Elbert Hubbard

Somethings never change!
Regards

Thank God the job situation here in the states looks to be improving. Lots of new businesses in town. Tons of high tech jobs coming in. Building boom like crazy. People are spending like there is no tomorrow.

NOT

frankthetank wrote:Thank God the job situation here in the states looks to be improving. Lots of new businesses in town. Tons of high tech jobs coming in. Building boom like crazy. People are spending like there is no tomorrow.

NOT

Gees,

It only took 28 years for these fellows to mess things up this bad and you expect the world would recover in an instant!

You can bet many other parts of the world will take far longer to heal!

Understandably many industrial jobs will feel the pinch far longer that service or professionals but the fact remains the same with the Financials/Banks and Insurance already finding support and the release of liquidity into the credit markets the recovery is now underway.

In fact considering that Winter will soon be upon us many industrial jobs would have been culled through the holidays and even though it may not seem like much the fact remains that this valuable time can be spent restructuring the industries hardest hit!

Surely you did not believe this recession would last forever or that we would retrace to 26 year lows even though it may have felt like it!

Those hardest hit will be debt rich and cash poor the rest will recover quicker and stronger than before.

I hold no hope for the future of Crude as Green Technologies more ever faster and inflation retraces, in fact many will continue riling from the Global Macro/Micro Economic Woes!

Considering that China and don't get me wrong I have a few positions in China although not in companies that can be severely affected by the slow down.

Personally I don't completely blame China but the WTO, IMF, WB, BIS and the Global Central Banks for not managing China's admittance into the WTO better.

Many will and are still fooled by the current recovery expecting the EU to be on target but much like the WTO's failures with China so has the EU failed by increasing membership without first applying Due Dillegence and Risk Management ahead of greed and power, now we see most every single nation that entered into the EU over the past 8 years under extreme Macro/Micro Monetary Stress.

So whats the solution now that they are member states?

Personally I forecast the EURO to retrace to better than parity with the USD while the GBP maintains above strength by not to the levels of the past 8 years.

This Dutch Disease will linger much longer in the Emerging Markets and all the over regulating will not change things anytime soon for either of them.

Again, it may take till the end of the year but Crude should retrace to test the 30's by Winter, Gold to near 610 and Commodities to 8 year lows.

GL

Hogan wrote:Not in the mood for this crap. SweetSmellofTroll now on ignore list.

I suppose you really picked the wrong Photo to represent yourself with!

LOL!

Thanks for placing me on ignore as I had found you dribble on Doom rather tiring to put it quite nicely!

Surely there will be many Mismanaged Hedge Funds and even a few Shadow Banks will get squeezed out but more important the numbers of speculators have already proven their inabilities to cope with the current situation.

And once again they will miss the markets!

Regards

SweetSmellofMoney wrote:

Hogan wrote:Not in the mood for this crap. SweetSmellofTroll now on ignore list.

I suppose you really picked the wrong Photo to represent yourself with!
LOL! Thanks for placing me on ignore as I had found you dribble on Doom rather tiring to put it quite nicely!
Surely there will be many Mismanaged Hedge Funds and even a few Shadow Banks will get squeezed out but more important the numbers of speculators have already proven their inabilities to cope with the current situation. And once again they will miss the markets!

You may have a good point there money me old mate. I'm a marxist and I've been maintaining all along that this is not THE crash but a correction in over exhuberant asset values. A nasty correction yes, but a correction all the same. It stuns me that there are some on here who believe that money is simply printed out of fresh air when it is evident that money is backed up by the labour and energy surplus contained in the worlds labour force and oil, magnified in the value adding process of exchange, into profit.

As long as there is work and exchange, there will be value in money. So long as that exchange process has a latent surplus and I think its evident to all that there is a vast surplus in the growing Asian economies, there is ample room for recovery. I suspect that the current threat to confidence, the overvalued Western housing sector will shift to a rental model as tptb oversee its transferance into ownership by funds in these Asian economies.

americandream wrote:As long as there is work and exchange, there will be value in money. So long as that exchange process has a latent surplus and I think its evident to all that there is a vast surplus in the growing Asian economies, there is ample room for recovery. I suspect that the current threat to confidence, the overvalued Western housing sector will shift to a rental model as tptb oversee its transferance into ownership by funds in these Asian economies.

Not evident to me AD that there is a surplus in "growing Asian economies". Rather I would suggest they are just delayed in suffering the effects of the global meltdown because their economies were built as a labor force to serve the west.

The issue for them would be that with reduced demand, their labor suplus is RIDICULOUS. Far too many people in China for China to self sustain. they are in more desperate straights than anyone else, per capita.

Any surplus the Asian countries might have had they loaned out to the West, its Irredeemable Debt that never will be paid back. As a Banker, the Asians are as Bankrupt as Lehman or Bear Stearns.

Labor is of course the true source of money, but the fact is that due to Overshoot the value of Labor is depressed below the substence level. Enough people have to DIE here to make the labor worth enough to keep a person alive. Until that happens, no Marxist solution will work. Sorry.
Reverse Engineer

americandream wrote:

SweetSmellofMoney wrote:

Hogan wrote:Not in the mood for this crap. SweetSmellofTroll now on ignore list.

I suppose you really picked the wrong Photo to represent yourself with!
LOL! Thanks for placing me on ignore as I had found you dribble on Doom rather tiring to put it quite nicely!
Surely there will be many Mismanaged Hedge Funds and even a few Shadow Banks will get squeezed out but more important the numbers of speculators have already proven their inabilities to cope with the current situation. And once again they will miss the markets!

You may have a good point there money me old mate. I'm a marxist and I've been maintaining all along that this is not THE crash but a correction in over exhuberant asset values. A nasty correction yes, but a correction all the same. It stuns me that there are some on here who believe that money is simply printed out of fresh air when it is evident that money is backed up by the labour and energy surplus contained in the worlds labour force and oil, magnified in the value adding process of exchange, into profit.
As long as there is work and exchange, there will be value in money. So long as that exchange process has a latent surplus and I think its evident to all that there is a vast surplus in the growing Asian economies, there is ample room for recovery. I suspect that the current threat to confidence, the overvalued Western housing sector will shift to a rental model as tptb oversee its transferance into ownership by funds in these Asian economies.

I rather enjoyed your reply! It made me laugh as my heart felt there is sanity after all!

Here a chuckle! “I am not a Marxist.” Karl Marx

I find it interesting how little value mankind has placed on him/herself considering the fact the not one gear turneth without man nor one pitch of the coin.

“We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.” Ian Shepherdson

Try to explain that to those that have little to no self worth! Demand Destruction has a way of creating worse kind of fear, havoc and distrust in the best of us!

Under better conditions many would still post their DOOM and GLOOM I have read post going as far back as the Tech Bubble when everyone was spending almost as far as it fell in their laps.

Surely manyof them are still here spreading their. "You see I was finally right"!

LOL!

Its not all as bad as it seems even though we find that the very ones creating the fear are those in public office finding a new reason why we must keep them in office.

I say let the chips fall where they may, let the Hedge Funds that can survive survive and the rest take the natural course of evolution.

Capitalism and Free and Fair Market trading is a Utopia only achieved by the one that made the better trade and such is life.

Now lets get on with the things we do best!

Crude and PM may seem like all the world today just as Tech did 15 years ago or the Automobile 50 years ago, things change and if they can't except the change all the better for those that can.

Thank you for your kind words!

Regards

ReverseEngineer wrote:

americandream wrote:As long as there is work and exchange, there will be value in money. So long as that exchange process has a latent surplus and I think its evident to all that there is a vast surplus in the growing Asian economies, there is ample room for recovery. I suspect that the current threat to confidence, the overvalued Western housing sector will shift to a rental model as tptb oversee its transferance into ownership by funds in these Asian economies.

Not evident to me AD that there is a surplus in "growing Asian economies". Rather I would suggest they are just delayed in suffering the effects of the global meltdown because their economies were built as a labor force to serve the west.
The issue for them would be that with reduced demand, their labor suplus is RIDICULOUS. Far too many people in China for China to self sustain. they are in more desperate straights than anyone else, per capita.
Any surplus the Asian countries might have had they loaned out to the West, its Irredeemable Debt that never will be paid back. As a Banker, the Asians are as Bankrupt as Lehman or Bear Stearns.
Labor is of course the true source of money, but the fact is that due to Overshoot the value of Labor is depressed below the substence level. Enough people have to DIE here to make the labor worth enough to keep a person alive. Until that happens, no Marxist solution will work. Sorry.

RE, one should in this game of trying to glean the trajectory of capital, isolate universal per capita wealth maximisation from global captal maximisation. Capital MUST reach that point of maximised opportunity cost (evident in the exhaustion of all surplus potential) for all further growth to translate into negative return on its investment.

Consequently, the fact that there is still the surplus potential in Asia does not translate into maximised benefit per capita in some ultimate and indefinite capitalist nirvana. That maximisation will, I suspect top out at 70% (and I am being generous here).

However, capitals demise must as a function of its failure, be preceded by commodification of all and every morsel of surplus and that has not as yet occurred. The recent meeting in Asia should be ample evidence that tptb are on track to hold out the carrot of per capita wealth maxmisation to the masses of Asia (and the West).

It's a rather fraught issue trying to understand the objective dynamics of systems from perhaps our own subjective preferences. However a system has within its its own dynamics of growth and regression. These are dispassionate forces akin to nature when she enters one or other phase of instability and in the process, wipes out entire species. Dispassionate, but deadly in it's terminal effects.

americandream wrote:Consequently, the fact that there is still the surplus potential in Asia does not translate into maximised benefit per capita in some ultimate and indefinite capitalist nirvana. That maximisation will, I suspect top out at 70% (and I am being generous here).

This specifically is the postulate I am taking issue with. There is NOT still surplus potential in Asia. The specific areas of China and India which might have some surplus resources are far too overpopulated for that resource to be in "surplus".

They have been living on borrowed time and borrowed wealth of the world like everyone else. With a monetary system collapse, these individual areas will have to fend for themselves, both here in the US and in India and China. None will fare well, and Marxism most certainly will not resolve the problems of overshoot. Only death will do that.
Reverse Engineer

ReverseEngineer wrote:

americandream wrote:Consequently, the fact that there is still the surplus potential in Asia does not translate into maximised benefit per capita in some ultimate and indefinite capitalist nirvana. That maximisation will, I suspect top out at 70% (and I am being generous here).

This specifically is the postulate I am taking issue with. There is NOT still surplus potential in Asia. The specific areas of China and India which might have some surplus resources are far too overpopulated for that resource to be in "surplus".
They have been living on borrowed time and borrowed wealth of the world like everyone else. With a monetary system collapse, these individual areas will have to fend for themselves, both here in the US and in India and China. None will fare well, and Marxism most certainly will not resolve the problems of overshoot. Only death will do that.

Marx's understanding of the systems dynamics, his comments as to the role of the majority non-capital labouring class in the ultimate demise of globalised cornucopia are perhaps, IMO, the most objective accounting of the direction history is likely to take.

The fact that the outcome will be a collective one seems a reasonable inference given that at that point in history we will have exhausted all others ranging from pure markets to corporatist interventionism and failed. A dying planet may possibly alter this picture otherwise I have yet to be convinced by any of the other options.

I agree the credit crisis is near its end but not in a positive way. We are rapidly coming to the point where the only way out is world wide credit default.

Novus wrote:I agree the credit crisis is near its end but not in a positive way. We are rapidly coming to the point where the only way out is world wide credit default.

Corrections are never positive. The very essence of a correction is to negative a preceding positive, albeit one that exceeded the then carrying capacity of the system. I use the term "then" to distinguish the current severe reaction to what is in effect the exhaustion off all regional surplus from one that will be a terminal and global one.

That will be notable by the complete exhaustion of all surplus, labour and commodity. More significantly, there will be no degree of demand destruction capable of destroying commodity unit cost other than the absolute destruction of global labour unit cost. The translates in a word, into class war.

Consequently, one would be advised to make hay whilst the sun shines in this downturn for there a good times yet to come.

americandream wrote:The fact that the outcome will be a collective one seems a reasonable inference given that at that point in history we will have exhausted all others ranging from pure markets to corporatist interventionism and failed. A dying planet may possibly alter this picture otherwise I have yet to be convinced by any of the other options.

Have you considered Tribalism?
Reverse Engineer