Peak Oil News and Message Boards

rockdoc123 wrote:anybodies guess is probably the answer as there are lots of moving parts to the equation.
I think the weekly EIA report should be a decent guide to how much is being produced. Demand will come back slowly I would expect but with things opening up and there still being most of the summer driving season ahead of us we might see gasoline supplies start to decrease at which point the refineries increase their throughput and the overall supply of oil starts to drop further.
I think the rate of demand increase is probably going to be the driver here which will be helped along by lower production.

thanks again for the reply, you are a real resource. I have heard more people will be driving this summer to avoid airlines so, hopefully, demand will perk up. The great thing about big oil price changes is that they usually create such a dramatic industry reaction that its not uncommon for prices to rebound to the other extreme from where they were as too much production goes offline.

EIA

US Net Imports:

file:///C:/Users/16364/Downloads/chart%20(1).pdf

that is a local file location we cannot see the file

C8 - So true. For those unable to search historical price charts: the current price "collapse" is the 9th since 1970.

C8 "I have heard more people will be driving this summer to avoid airlines ..."

More people will be driving private cars than ever before, not only to avoid planes, but to avoid buses, trains, trolleys, minibuses, taxis, Uber rides, cruise ships, and the infrastructure related to them; ports, airports, bus stops, stations, etc.. People will also be more reluctant to share rides on their cars, too. Both vacations and commutes will change, at least temporarily. Add to that very low gas prices, and I expect an increase in car driving, with, maybe, a negative adjustment for increased unemployment. Traffic in Miami already is almost as bad as it ever was, but there are very few planes in the sky.

JuanP wrote:C8 "I have heard more people will be driving this summer to avoid airlines ..."

More people will be driving private cars than ever before, not only to avoid planes, but to avoid buses, trains, trolleys, minibuses, taxis, Uber rides, cruise ships, and the infrastructure related to them; ports, airports, bus stops, stations, etc.. People will also be more reluctant to share rides on their cars, too. Both vacations and commutes will change, at least temporarily. Add to that very low gas prices, and I expect an increase in car driving, with, maybe, a negative adjustment for increased unemployment. Traffic in Miami already is almost as bad as it ever was, but there are very few planes in the sky.

Yup. "Stupid" and volatile as the markets can be in the short run, they notice such data points, and they react. With WTI pushing $40 today, I'm sure that's part of the reason.

Very BAD news for AGW, pollution, etc, of course. But rather good news for the auto sector, the oil sector, etc. For younger folks in cities, owning a car vs. taking a ride from a random Uber driver suddenly has a different risk profile, as well, unless and until the perception is that COVID-19 is truly a thing of the past, re meaningful risk.

Of course, much more work from home might happen for those with office type jobs COULD become a thing, and long term. Lots of uncertainty given conflicting forces and trends. Of course, trying to handicap those is what makes markets (and price volatility).

I think it's too early to say whether mass transit takes a long term hit, assuming COVID-19 gets a solid resolution (say fairly long term immunity (years) from a reliable vaccine or three within a few years). Will youth and aversion to cars, or aversion to germs prevail?

Opinions are mixed about how much long term behavior change we see re things like hand washing, aversion to germs in public, etc. by the masses, re articles I've read on the subject, after COVID-19 cranked up.