Re: General News of the Impact of Resource Depletion on Nati
Posted: Fri 22 Jul 2022, 12:45:55
Tanada wrote:AdamB wrote: Peak oil did happen in 2018. As folks have mentioned, time needs to pass before determining if it is indeed THE ONE. There are examples of regions, including the entire world, of peaking...and then 15 or 70 or 100 years later, peaking again. So we'll just tell our children or grand children to keep their eyes open, and let them worry about being able to finally designate....THE ONE, because none of us are going to be around that far out to know for sure.
I think you are ignoring a crucial factor in your statement Adam. I believe "The ONE" and only global peak oil will be when crude prices remain elevated yet world crude production continues to decline.
You can BELIEVE whatever you'd like, the definition of peak oil is about a maximum rate, not prices. If peak oil was about prices, it would be called "peak oil price" or something, and we would be lamenting the "good ol' days" prior to 2008 when that peak price happened and the world ended, or not, or whatever. Also, your definition runs into the classic quandary solved by economists about the relationship between supply and price. There is ZERO requirement that a real, live, as defined by Hubbert on down peak OIL is required to also be higher prices forever onward. It is a possibility, and you are allowed to believe it as some do that the Lord God will come down and scoop them up in the Rapture and leave all the heathens to die horribly, but that is just a belief.
C8 wrote: In all those other peaking events high crude price led to a boom in drilling and exploitation which caused supply to go up to a new peak.
All those peaking events I call reel off from memory now weren't global in nature any more than Hubbert's original examples in his 1956 paper. He used regional examples and extrapolated it to the global level, a completely reasonable thing to do. So...your description is more related to that supply/demand macroeconomic issue that your definition attempts to dodge, and now here you are trying to apply those principles correctly...but you want to believe the same won't happen in the future? Notice...in this quote you didn't say "demand", which means you accept the supply/demand response in one way, but then ignore it when convenient.
Exploration is no longer the main driver of new oil production, something that the folks at peak oil barrel still haven't learned, much to their "ever declaring peak because we refuse to learn why we are wrong before" exercises. Except Dennis, his brain appears to function at both technical and economic levels, but he misses completely on the necessary 3rd leg of the problem (3 are required to do this right) and is crippled by lack of high resolution data across all 3 specialties involved.
C8 wrote: In the final peak, prices will go up but supply will not be able to grow to a still higher peak even with plenty of profit motive pushing for people to exploit every resource.
The final peak has no more requirement to be scarcity of supply as any of the others. Again, you ignore the relationship that matters in your statement, which has the ability to completely unhinge all of your assumptions about why even THE peak oil happens.