Peak Oil News and Message Boards

pstarr - "Nobody ever bothers to do the damn EROEI stuff anymore. And look where we are! Damn."

True. But they do bother with the damn rate of return. And look where the f*ck we are! Damn.

asg70 wrote:

pstarr wrote:the mortgage crisis . . . all started in 2005 when conventional oil (<45api, deep, dirty) production peaked.

And a coincidence of timing is supposed to mean...what?

Nothing. Pstarr can't even define the difference between a 42 API light sweet conventional crude and a 42 API light sweet unconventional one, let alone the timing of a peak in when these two identical oils might be produced.

pstarr wrote:Nobody ever bothers to do the damn EROEI stuff anymore. And look where we are! Damn.

Indeed. A decade after your claimed peak oil, and you are still probably living in the same house. Still driving a car, the lack of fuels not being a problem. Rockman is still making a mint, because consumers are still buying...(tee hee hee)..more refined products than ever because...wait for it...Rockmans industry is producing more than it did when you claim peak oil happened.

Want to bet AirlinePilot is still flying...you know...airplanes? Can anyone on this site even claim to have lost their job because of peak oil, let alone worry in the slightest about a metric that hasn't mattered in the entire history of the oil industry?

Cost and money are such artificial concepts.

People worked in ancient times without money, it didn't exist. It was the sheer joy of working your field to feed your kids.

What is the cost of a service rendered for free, like someone volunteering? Stuff or services are still produced, but money is not exchanged.

Ultimately, all resources are free from nature. Sand in a sandpit only has value when it is sold into a market. The same sand sat aeons under the ground with no value. Sunlight has zero cost, yet we all benefit from it. It is something from nothing. We reap the benefit without ever having sown.

Humans can exist, likely in smaller numbers, without money or cost. Something is ultimately missing in this conversation of limits...?

"I've been reading the SRS Rocco report and recently heard an interview in which the Steve
St. Angelo predicts that increasing EROI = falling production (which makes sense to me) and also a falling nominal oil price (which does not make sense to me)."

We have been communicating with other authors via email for several weeks while we build a site that is less susceptible to attack from outside sources. We have also found most sites to be very antagonistic toward our posting. Because of that very little has actually been explained to the general reader as to why falling ERoEI, and falling crude price must be part of the same process.

Most commentators on petroleum concentrate on the extraction portion of the process. Extraction, however, is just a small part of the entire production process. It actually only consumes about 20% of the energy, or money required to deliver finished product to the end user. Concentrating on the extraction portion, while ignoring the remainder is like dodging the guy on the bicycle, and ignoring the Mac Truck coming up behind you.

The majority of the energy, and cost used to deliver finished product takes place in the processing sector. It is there that we can see the major impact of depletion taking place. The raw material costs for the sector has been growing relentlessly for the last 13 years. According to EIA data in 2005 it required 1.08 barrels of crude to deliver 1.0 barrels of finished product; by 2016 that had increased to 1.63 barrels. At the present rate of refinery yield decline that will be 3.35 barrels by 2026. By 2026 it will requre production of 195 mb/d to delivery the same quantity of finished product that is used today.

As 85% of a refinery's operating cost results from the cost of the crude, for them to reach breakeven and stay in business, either the price of finished products must increase, or the cost of the crude must decline. In a market that is well over supplied, as this one has been for the last several years, the price of crude must go down.

This is occurring as part of the depletion cycle that must take place, and it is described very accurately by the Etp Model. We expect to have all the data and graphs posted to a safe location in a few days. For anyone who is willing to objectively analysis that data it will be readily apparent that the entire petroleum industry is getting into dire straights very rapidly!

<I>As 85% of a refinery's operating cost results from the cost of the crude, for them to reach breakeven and stay in business, either the price of finished products must increase, or the cost of the crude must decline.</I>

What a doofus. You have been dodging refining for almost 3 years. And then you became a certified moron when the Royal Society said "What". You don't have a clue about refining.

Refiners make money on the crack spread, that is the difference in price between a wholesale product, say gasoline, and the raw material, say 32 API oil.

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline (RBOB) is $1.70 per gallon or $71 per barrel. If the refinery buys its raw material for $50 per barrel its gross margin is $21 per barrel or $0.50 per gallon.

The ETP is garbage.

Shorty wrote:

"We have been communicating with other authors via email for several weeks while we build a site that is less susceptible to attack from outside sources. We have also found most sites to be very antagonistic toward our posting.

We expect to have all the data and graphs posted to a safe location in a few days."

If your data had any validity the world would be beating a path to your website. But as it is, paranoia has become part of your sales model.

By the way your model and your pdf, such as it is, can be obtained free of charge on the web. I bet you didn't realize that did you?

rockdoc123 wrote: Companies that are being acquired might prefer Exxon shares if they see additional upside to the share price versus the fixed price they will receive if the transaction is done in cash. Remember that Exxon prior to the price crash has done very well in the market and they have a healthy dividend.

There is also the tax implications to consider. If you as a stockholder receive cash for your stock in the purchased company you have to pay capital gains tax on that money that year. If you take it as stock in the purchasing company you can wait until you sell that stock before your tax accountant has to figure out how much you owe and there is always the possibility that tax rates might be lower in the future.

Is there a point where Shortonoil will be permanently banned from the site for his repeated lies that discredit the site?

vtsnowedin wrote:Is there a point where Shortonoil will be permanently banned from the site for his repeated lies that discredit the site?

He has already violated the COC of this board by repeatedly pimping his for pay website and model without compensation to peakoil.com.

Cog wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote:Is there a point where Shortonoil will be permanently banned from the site for his repeated lies that discredit the site?

He has already violated the COC of this board by repeatedly pimping his for pay website and model without compensation to peakoil.com.

I wouldn't mind some pushing of a product if that product was not such a complete scam. At some point you become complicit in the fraud by letting it exist on your site.

Maybe the justified ridicule we can heap on the ETP model here, actually serves the rest of humanity in some way.

Cog - I've always found the best punishment for someone breaking a site's rules is to just ignore them. And a little lighthearted mocking is OK too. Personally I don't find Shorty all that irritating. OTOH I've haven't paid attention to anything posted by the model in many months. Notice I just call it the "model".

vtsnowedin wrote:Is there a point where Shortonoil will be permanently banned from the site for his repeated lies that discredit the site?

Lies? He has been right all the time since mid-2014. I am actually looking forward to seeing his new website.

Observerbrb wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote:Is there a point where Shortonoil will be permanently banned from the site for his repeated lies that discredit the site?

Lies? He has been right all the time since mid-2014. I am actually looking forward to seeing his new website.

You aren't the only one who is looking forward to it.

marmico wrote:The ETP is garbage.

But of course it is. The $$ that matter here are the ones the authors want to give them for the report.

AdamB wrote:

marmico wrote:The ETP is garbage.

But of course it is. The $$ that matter here are the ones the authors want to give them for the report.

If we all bought one, do you think he'd go away? Just an idea...

"If we all bought one...". Why buy anything???. We've already been given the most important metrics for free...right? Either you believe the numbers tossed out here or you don't.

Cog wrote:

Observerbrb wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote:Is there a point where Shortonoil will be permanently banned from the site for his repeated lies that discredit the site?

Lies? He has been right all the time since mid-2014. I am actually looking forward to seeing his new website.

You aren't the only one who is looking forward to it.

"You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality."

Zarquon wrote:If we all bought one, do you think he'd go away? Just an idea...

No, a blood sucking tick doesn't care or change it's behavior before the innocent host dies from loss of blood.