Peak Oil News and Message Boards

The commodity oil is going lower, as I predicted a week ago. The $75 level was a major technical resistance point (seen on the chart) spanning back years and common sense told you not only would July 4th mark a high pivot, but President Donald Trump would start ripping OPEC to get oil down into the mid-term elections. Every political party in charge talks oil down into elections to get a few extra votes. This November is one of the most important elections in recent history. These factors all spell major trouble for oil. I have a first support target of $66 in the charts from my short alert at $75.00. The first target is just that, a quick bounce before oil heads even lower into November. The final target into November is $55.00/bbl. See you there!





Gareth Soloway

You only predict weeks or months ahead?
LOL
We demand forecasts in YEARS around here!

inthemoneystocks wrote:The commodity oil is going lower, as I predicted a week ago. The $75 level was a major technical resistance point (seen on the chart) spanning back years and common sense told you not only would July 4th mark a high pivot, but President Donald Trump would start ripping OPEC to get oil down into the mid-term elections. Every political party in charge talks oil down into elections to get a few extra votes. This November is one of the most important elections in recent history. These factors all spell major trouble for oil. I have a first support target of $66 in the charts from my short alert at $75.00. The first target is just that, a quick bounce before oil heads even lower into November. The final target into November is $55.00/bbl. See you there!




Gareth Soloway

Tell you what.

Get on here and make a SPECIFIC prediction for oil (price and when and what contract) AHEAD OF TIME. Get that right, say, 90% of the time for 20 times. Why not use this thread? Or start another thread with an appropriate topic.

Then get back to us, and chances are very good I'd want to try your service. I'll predict there is an over 99% chance you'll be below 90% accurate over 20 consecutive picks (considering 2**10 is 1024).

OTOH, if you were any where near that good and had a brain, you could become a billionaire over time trading oil futures -- instead of hawking a stock picking service (based on the site name).

https://markets.businessinsider.com/com ... e?type=wti
WTI $44 as per Short once it hits $40 kiss the good times goodbye

onlooker wrote:https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti
WTI $44 as per Short once it hits $40 kiss the good times goodbye

Uh we have had sub$40 bbl oil before and didn't resort to eating long pig. I'm sure you are trying to make a point. But no one here knows what it might be.

Cog wrote:

onlooker wrote:https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti
WTI $44 as per Short once it hits $40 kiss the good times goodbye

Uh we have had sub$40 bbl oil before and didn't resort to eating long pig. I'm sure you are trying to make a point. But no one here knows what it might be.

I presume peak oil AND $40 bbl oil combination doesn't bode well. It means nobody wants the oil, it is not economical to go after shale oil, and as the economy runs on oil, what 'economy' would be left? Something like that, possibly, no?

onlooker wrote:https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti
WTI $44 as per Short once it hits $40 kiss the good times goodbye

Still clinging to the cheap oil = doom narrative?

It's laughable, man, laughable.

Cog wrote:

onlooker wrote:https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti
WTI $44 as per Short once it hits $40 kiss the good times goodbye

Uh we have had sub$40 bbl oil before and didn't resort to eating long pig. I'm sure you are trying to make a point. But no one here knows what it might be.

The usual suspects will have a great time trying to claim that economic issues (including periods of panic) re COVID-19 has ANYTHING to do with their forecasting abilities.

Just more wasted bandwidth. But we should call them on it.

jedrider wrote:

Cog wrote:

onlooker wrote:https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti
WTI $44 as per Short once it hits $40 kiss the good times goodbye

Uh we have had sub$40 bbl oil before and didn't resort to eating long pig. I'm sure you are trying to make a point. But no one here knows what it might be.

I presume peak oil AND $40 bbl oil combination doesn't bode well. It means nobody wants the oil, it is not economical to go after shale oil, and as the economy runs on oil, what 'economy' would be left? Something like that, possibly, no?

When the economy can't run because of "cheap oil", be SURE and demonstrate that for us.

Meanwhile in the real world, the laws of supply and demand continue to function JUST FINE, over time. Even when delightful frolics like global spurts of market panic over an event like COVID-19 occur.

i realize it's hard for doomers to grasp, but a few days, or an isolated statistic does NOT reflect overall economic reality for years, much less decades, to come.

...

And if, over time, a HUGE component of oil demand just disappears re EV's, don't panic. That just means cheaper oil supplies lasting much longer for more intelligent uses than just BURNING it -- like say, the growing global petrochemical market. Or asphalt for the roads for all those zero tailpipe emission cars.

(Even as doomers try to claim it means the end of days).

Get on here and make a SPECIFIC prediction for oil

I predict that at 3:38 EST, on 02/29/20 that the price of WTI will be $45.26 a barrel. That gives the midget brains hours of posting time to disprove.

Now here is a person who could write everything that that they know about oil, have ever known, or is likely to ever know on the back of a postage stamp with a can of spray paint. It is safe to take his comments with a degree of latitude. Here I am referring to the real geographic degree, which is 66.67 miles. If you can hit it with a rock, you are too close.

This persons set purpose appears to be to de-deconstruct all knowledge ever acquired by the oil industry, and replace it with 3 beads, a Ouija Board, and a can of dried chicken bones. It attempts continually to directly communicate with the oil god for tidbits of information. It may make comments like how to change the oil in a 1954 Edsel. Viewer ship discretion is advised.

Uh we have had sub$40 bbl oil before and didn't resort to eating long pig. I'm sure you are trying to make a point. But no one here knows what it might be.

What is this "try" stuff? He did make a point, and it may be a perfect match for the one on top of your head. With a world wide pandemic now in progress, $340 trillion in world debt, a world wide collapsing equity market, one third of world manufacturing off line, and 80% of the US petroleum industry now unprofitable, $40 will be the last straw to break the camels back. Shortly after that the nearest gas station will be a 128 miles away from your location.

You were insistent that this would be nothing but a bad case of the flu.

The rich are about to become poor real fast. All banking records are stored on digital medias. Once the electricity goes out the rich become poor right away. Sweden is done. They moved to digital currency. No paper currency in Sweden. How is mass migration working out for you globalists ???????????????????????????????????????????????

South Korea has a LOW population (56 million). They will never go back to pre-corona manufacturing level.

it is just the flu people.


https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/statu ... 2497573894

loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

I think you are more likely to see solidification of certain trends. The one towards automation seems a shoe in. The world is somewhat automated. It's not hard to imagine a degree of automation wherein this virus would have little impact, even if it were the zombie apocalypse. If the West doesn't get that, the East will.

Why should the oil price visiting these levels this time mean it is the end? Even if low prices are an indicator of such, why this time? The coronavirus is not necessarily systemic. Low oil prices should have the same stimulative effect upon the economy as deficit spending. Interest rates may come down. I do get the panic over debt levels, especially since their payments are structured monthly.

Everything is structured monthly, pretty much. The modern economy isn't built to handle a stall longer than a few days. How are people going to make those payments when they haven't got money coming in? Well, at least in the US. The Europeans have to deal with a regulatory and social environment where their employees take quite a few weeks off per year. They have larger allowance accounts to deal with things like this. They can easily swap money from the time off accounts to the sickness time expense accounts. The US can't. Here's where there is potential payment for not treating employees better. Payment for all those years of big companies lobbying against worker's rights. I bet that realization is why the euro went up over the last few days of the previous week. The dollar went down, in comparison. The ten year is at record lows, meaning people are flocking to it, and still the dollar sank in comparison. Gold also took a dive.

FuelShortageComing wrote:The rich are about to become poor real fast. All banking records are stored on digital medias. Once the electricity goes out the rich become poor right away. Sweden is done. They moved to digital currency. No paper currency in Sweden. How is mass migration working out for you globalists ???????????????????????????????????????????????

South Korea has a LOW population (56 million). They will never go back to pre-corona manufacturing level.

it is just the flu people.


https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/statu ... 2497573894

loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

Another of shorty's sock puppets. Hey remind shorty he lost a bet on this forum and should pay it off. With interest.

Cog wrote:

FuelShortageComing wrote:The rich are about to become poor real fast. All banking records are stored on digital medias. Once the electricity goes out the rich become poor right away. Sweden is done. They moved to digital currency. No paper currency in Sweden. How is mass migration working out for you globalists ???????????????????????????????????????????????

South Korea has a LOW population (56 million). They will never go back to pre-corona manufacturing level.

it is just the flu people.


https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/statu ... 2497573894

loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

Another of shorty's sock puppets. Hey remind shorty he lost a bet on this forum and should pay it off. With interest.

Short is using VPN over TOR on a TAILS to mask his ip address and system configuration to make it seem like it isn't him....

Kinda like CIA with COVID and Plausible deniability.

If we have any short sellers here I suggest linking up to some social media with some oilfield folks. Get a roughneck facebook friend.

When the first drill ship that gets shut down and quarantined this will cause severe chaos and severe pain in the offshore drilling space. There you go. I can't say much more than that at this point but I think you'll see drilling companies that will be hurt in a major way..

Russia rejects new production cut agreement with OPEC. Maybe the Russians are trying to burst the shale oil bubble? I believe that the Russians are better positioned for an oil price crash than the Americans are at this time. The Russians have been saving money for years while Americans keep borrowing like there will be a tomorrow. Would this be a good time for Russia to sink oil prices and pop that bubble? It could be.
https://www.rt.com/business/482499-opec ... ction-cut/

JuanP wrote:Russia rejects new production cut agreement with OPEC. Maybe the Russians are trying to burst the shale oil bubble? I believe that the Russians are better positioned for an oil price crash than the Americans are at this time. The Russians have been saving money for years while Americans keep borrowing like there will be a tomorrow. Would this be a good time for Russia to sink oil prices and pop that bubble? It could be.
https://www.rt.com/business/482499-opec ... ction-cut/

OPEC tried that in 2014-16 and it didn't work out so well for them.

There is no ulterior motive amongst the Russians. They are simply doing a calculation that involves balancing total revenues, revenues per bbl and market share. If by lowering their production a considerable amount it increases prices back to where they were but results in a lost portion of market share it really makes better sense to wait for the price to rise again. OPEC and now by analogy Russia whole goal has been to balance market share and price. Having a higher price doesn't help if you've lost points of sale.