Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Historically, the value of the market as a whole has been measured by comparing prices to earnings and to book value, while also considering dividend yield. Until the late-1980s, history showed that stocks were “cheap” when the market was selling near book value, with an average P/E ratio of about 10 or less, and yielding about 5% or more in dividends. Buying stocks when the market met two or more of those criteria – especially in line with key new highs in the Industrials and Transports – put the odds clearly in investors’ favor. On the other hand, investing when the market was selling at twice or more of its book value, with a P/E over 15, and yielding less than 3% was likely to bring losses. But all that started changing by the late-1980s.

market pe levels 1885 to 2013


Market P/E levels: For over 100 years until the 1990s, P/Es ranged between 5 and 25. Under the “new normal”, a P/E of 15 is cheap and God only knows what defines expensive! Source: Robert Shiller and his book Irrational Exuberance

dividend yield 1870 to 2013


Dividend yield: Meanwhile, dividend yields bounced around mostly between 3% and 8% for decades, but have remained under 3% for the last 25 years. Source: Robert Shiller and his book Irrational Exuberance