Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Whilst surfing on the internet I came across the following story which I would like to share with you.

The big issue with supply is that the majority of the world's copper deposits have already been discovered, mostly in the 1960s. They've been found because copper is usually located in near-surface porphyry deposits - structures with a large geological "footprint" that make them relatively easy to find and, once found, easy to understand and to exploit. As a result, new discoveries are hard to come by and tend to be deeper and harder to mine.

Hmmmm.......Let's see. Where have I heard this before?
Cutting to the chase, in order for the copper industry to off-set the fast approaching supply/demand shortfall, it will have to do much, much better - in fact, it will require a new mega-mine on the order of Turquoise Hill to come on line each and every year for the foreseeable future. Yet, looking over the horizon, there is only one large copper mine, Sossego in Brazil, slated to come on stream in the foreseeable future, later this year, or early next.

This is starting to sound awfully familiar.

Bottom line: the odds of the mining industry being able to find and bring on enough new mine supply to head off the coming copper crunch - in the short, medium or even long-term - is slim to none, and slim is being body-searched at the airport on the way out of town.

Peak copper????

As most of the alternative energy sources produce electric energy (Even the hydrogen economy is driving on fuel cells and electromotors) I think that it's fair to assume that we're going to need a lot of copper. Then a copper crunch is probably the last thing we want.

source:
http://www.kitcometals.com/commentaries ... 32004.html

___________
"Nuclear power is one hell of a way to boil water"
Albert Einstein

The Deffeyes book had a perfect looking bell curve showing production of anthracite coal in Pennsylvania.

There is a major difference between copper and oil however. Copper is not an energy source, hence, as long as sufficient energy is available, bold for emphasis given that this is in doubt, it is likely that we will be able to get more copper. Another difference between copper and oil is that copper is recyclable (not 100% because of losses in scattering) but recyclable enough to stretch present supplies out significantly. There may be some applications where it can be substituted for other metals (aluminum for example which again as long as sufficient energy is available, we will be able to obtain) That is the beauty of metals, they can be efficiently recycled to stretch supplies by at least an order of magnitude in time.

Beleted.

Hmmm... Peak Copper? Not as catchy as Peak Oil I'd say- needs a new name. How about the Copper Top?

I really like twin peaks........really pointy ones.......wait you were talking about copper and oil. My bad!

Copper prices in New York rose for the first session in three as global inventory fell close to a 14- year low, renewing concern about dwindling supplies available to manufacturers of wire and pipe.

Stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange plunged 85 percent in the past year. Wolverine Tube Inc., a maker of pipes used in homes and appliances, said customers reduced purchases when prices reached a 15-year high early this month. Since then, the metal has dropped 14 percent on signs of slowing demand growth in China, the world's top buyer. link

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=acg3AthmlVoI&refer=news_index

might be a good way to see what happens to prices when demand outstrips supply. i doubt that prices will just go higher and higher for ever, as people just couldnt afford it. i think prices for copper (and oil) will bounce about wildly - very high peaks, followed by a trough, then another peak, another trough, etc.

what does anyone else think?

I've been looking into that situation for a while now. Here's an old article on it.

http://www.kitcometals.com/commentaries ... 32004.html

Overall I think the situation is less pressing than with oil, because there are tremendous amounts of copper available for recycling so I think we can fulfill the current need with our copper supply.

But that all changes when we have to switch to alternative energy because of peak oil. All alternatives which we speak about, whether it is solar, wind or nuclear/hydrogen, rely heavily on electricity transport. Therefore we need a tremendous amount of copper infrastructure.

It would be interesting to see how that pans out.

Peak Copper??? Copper prices in New York rose to a 16-year high after global inventories fell to the lowest since May 1988 as demand continues to outpace production by miners. ``Supply may dry up,'' said Joe Sara, manager of metals planning and procurement for Cedar Rapids, Iowa-based PMX Industries Inc., which buys about 150 million pounds of copper a year used to make bullets, coins and locks. Demand from locksmiths and others making products for homes is ``very hot,'' he said.

``The fact is there's not enough copper coming out of the ground to meet current demand and forecast demand,'' said Stuart Flerlage, managing principal at New York-based Brownstone Advisors LLC, who forecast the metal would rise, even as prices dropped to a four-month low last month. ``People are not accurately able to judge what demand is.'' Flerlage said last month was his most profitable since he started his company two years ago, and May 31 ``was my best day ever.''

Deliverable copper stockpiles in China fell 8,563 tons this week to 19,848 tons, the lowest in four weeks, according to a survey of seven registered warehouses by the Shanghai Futures Exchange. ``This shows that the supply shortage in China hasn't been eased,'' said Wang Zheng, a metal analyst at Shanghai Dalu Futures.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... ty_futures

Makes sence...look at how much fuel is needed for mining...and then processing the ore. I wonder how long before GOLD & SILVER shoot thru the roof...they can't keep manipulating the price forever!

With record new home sales it is a small wonder.

Hmm....isn't copper a key metal in solar panels?

Cyrus wrote:Hmm....isn't copper a key metal in solar panels?

Copper is a key metal in all of electronics. No copper, no electronics, it's as simple as that.

Almost every commodity chart I see looks like that, gold, oil, silver, they all start climbing after 2000 or so.

Peak Earth!

lol

RonMN wrote:Makes sence...look at how much fuel is needed for mining...and then processing the ore. I wonder how long before GOLD & SILVER shoot thru the roof...they can't keep manipulating the price forever!

RonMN is right, if you want to protect your wealth then buy some gold/silver, take advantage of the current false undervalued price. Buy yourself a Canadian Maple or if you can afford it get a few. Rest assured they are not an expense but a sound investment. If you're physically strong then you may prefer some 22CT jewellery, remember Mr. T, he was his own walking bank

I pitty da foo!

Almost every commodity chart I see looks like that, gold, oil, silver, they all start climbing after 2000 or so.

Peak Earth!

Copper prices are rising because of demand from China, not because of dwindling supplies.