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No price can curb demand alone. Only a severe depression with no access to credit cards or actual physical shortages will lower consumption.

max_power29 wrote:No price can curb demand alone. Only a severe depression with no access to credit cards or actual physical shortages will lower consumption.

I think you're onto something here max_power. At the end of the week the average Joe still had to drive to work for 5 days and probably ran errands on Saturday. Sunday == rest. How can you reduce that? You can't unless you lose your job.

I know some greenies like to point out car pooling but realistically that is NOT going to happen. A person's car is very personal. How personal? About 25% of Americans give their car a name!

I think a more realistic scenario would be Americans driving *gasp* smaller cars to save fuel.

cube wrote:I think a more realistic scenario would be Americans driving *gasp* smaller cars to save fuel.

Yass, but this would lower the price of gas and increase fuel consumption.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gasoline demand has fallen for the first time in years as drivers appear to recoil from near-record prices, throwing doubt on America's seemingly insatiable thirst for fuel.

Growth in gasoline demand has been slowing all year. In five of the last seven weeks, the amount of gas that Americans consume has actually fallen compared to the same time last year, according to retail sales data gathered by MasterCard SpendingPulse, a research report that tracks gasoline sales using MasterCard, other credit cards and cash purchases at approximately 140,000 service stations around the country.

Gasoline demand has fallen

I have been following the weekly petroleum report thread as a lot of us have and If memory serves me isn't demand steady and slightly increasing?

Of course this is the credit card agencies take on the situation.

Be careful here. I see this alot and cornucopians and denialists use this stuff ALL THE TIME.

GROWTH IS FALLING. Demand is not. Demand continues to grow, albeit at a slightly slower rate year over year. While its good that we are starting to see an impact here in the states, remember this does not mean it is getting "better". I am confident that any decline in the GROWTH of demand here will be used up somewhere else where its still affordable. The only real number that matters is worldwide usage year over year. By even conservative estimates I do believe this is going to increase.

Someone prove me wrong please, I'll be glad to acknowledge my error!

I'll be glad to acknowledge my error!

============================

Do you have a thermometer handy ?

Here is a graph. EIA data.

Since the stock market took a tumble at the end of July, the growth has been sporadic. Thanksgiving week was particularly low for some reason.

pup55 wrote:Thanksgiving week was particularly low for some reason.

Last year during November gas prices were at their lowest for a year. Now we're about 40% higher than that. That could put a crimp in demand growth.

But people are still driving around like gas is going out of style. There's certainly been little demand destruction. People need to drive.

It's possible that credit card limits, such as $50 per fill-up, are preventing consumers from charging the entire amount of gasoline on credit cards.

While the last four weeks compared to last year are only up 0.4% - almost unchanged - that's still fairly strong considering high prices and a subtle shift to using more diesel.

Since October, have personally seen people ditching sedans for SUV's as if they threw in the towel and decided they might as well spend big before gas hits $20.

Of course, they're all Japanese SUV's.

heroineworshipper wrote:Since October, have personally seen people ditching sedans for SUV's as if they threw in the towel and decided they might as well spend big before gas hits $20.

Of course, they're all Japanese SUV's.

I am getting ready to trade in my wifes mini van and buy her a Honda Pilot. I wouldn't buy an American made car unless it came with a devise that gave me handjobs while I drove.

HHmmm... Does not take into account those who purchase gas with cash; also assumes that that no-one has credit cards that are not maxed out......

Armageddon wrote:

heroineworshipper wrote:Since October, have personally seen people ditching sedans for SUV's as if they threw in the towel and decided they might as well spend big before gas hits $20.

Of course, they're all Japanese SUV's.

I am getting ready to trade in my wifes mini van and buy her a Honda Pilot. I wouldn't buy an American made car unless it came with a devise that gave me handjobs while I drove.

You do know that Honda is made in Alabama right?

Honda Mfg Alabama

-G

gnm wrote:

Armageddon wrote:

heroineworshipper wrote:Since October, have personally seen people ditching sedans for SUV's as if they threw in the towel and decided they might as well spend big before gas hits $20.

Of course, they're all Japanese SUV's.

I am getting ready to trade in my wifes mini van and buy her a Honda Pilot. I wouldn't buy an American made car unless it came with a devise that gave me handjobs while I drove.

You do know that Honda is made in Alabama right?

Honda Mfg Alabama

-G

Damn, I knew I would get hosed somehow. There has to be a catch somewhere. They can't be the best mid sized SUV and be made in the US , can they ?

I wonder if the winter storms are keeping people at home more?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gasoline demand has fallen for the first time in years as drivers appear to recoil from near-record prices, throwing doubt on America's seemingly insatiable thirst for fuel.

This is, of course, patently absurd. The collective consciousness here at PO.com determined quite some time ago that basic economic theory, like increased prices affecting demand, simply don't work when faced with the awesome consequences of how our post peak world functions. ( you know, traffic jams, continued highway construction, 16+ million new ICE powered cars being sold every year, record corn production, rapidly increasing renewable electrical production to power the upcoming electric transport wave of the future, etc etc )

Past examples of such behavior, basic and complex economic theory stating otherwise, experts with some "nobody ever heard of it organization" like CNN saying different, all of this means nothing when faced with the collective certitude of our PO righteousness.

I tried paying with a few shavings of a gold bar i have, but they laughed... Visa card worked just fine?

AirlinePilot wrote: Someone prove me wrong please, I'll be glad to acknowledge my error!

I can't prove anyone right or wrong. However Mastercard uses retail data while the EIA uses wholesale data and this discrepancy has been around for a few months now.

An oversimplified possibility : People are shopping online instead of at the mall. Thus individuals buy less at retail, but UPS and Fedex, who buy wholesale, burn more gas delivering all those packages. I doubt that's the case, but but that's the kind of thing that would reconcile the two numbers.

The data for all crude oil and petroleum products, at the EIA, shows a decline over 2006 for all months from June to September. The previous months of the year, apart from March, showed an increase over the figures for the same months in 2006. Some of the 2004 months show greater consumption than 2007, so there is probably some noise in there, but it sure looks like consumption is down. That must reflect in economic growth, if it hasn't already.

AirlinePilot wrote:Be careful here. I see this alot and cornucopians and denialists use this stuff ALL THE TIME.

GROWTH IS FALLING. Demand is not. Demand continues to grow, albeit at a slightly slower rate year over year.

The article does not say that “demand growth” is down; it says that “demand” is down.

Albeit, this is not enough data to get a good projection, but if consumption is less this year than at the same time last year, then consumption is technically down even if only for a short period. If consumption this year is only between 0.1%-1.4% more than last year, then demand growth is down.

But that is not the case, it’s less than, not just less than predicted growth.

If this trend were to continue it would signify a drop in demand, not just a drop in growth.

That of course, remains to be seen.