Peak Oil News and Message Boards

If Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth. It is a given that at every gathering whether it be board room or lunch counter the consensus is that the economy will recover. More are saying this is a rough patch and it is going to take a long time to recover. But still, almost everyone assumes we will recover. Without growth, growth based systems collapse.

In my opinion we are facing a cargo cult. They will not be shaken in their absolute need to believe that the good times of 2005 will return. They will impede any effort to lower the life boats because they will not accept the inevitable conclusion that it is over.

We are still in the denial phase. If the realization strikes home in 2013, that will begin the rage phase.

The general public will go to the polls and vote this November asserting that this can all be fixed if we just put the right man in office. When it cannot be fixed, they will blame the politicians. Then they will blame the bankers. They may even blame the government.

We may fundamentally change our progressive view that government can solve our problems. When the realization that no government committee, law or program will put one more drop of oil in the ground, we will have shattered the perpetual growth paradigm that has been in place for four hundred years.

That my friends will produce a phase shift that will be felt around the world.

Cloud9 wrote:If Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth. It is a given that at every gathering whether it be board room or lunch counter the consensus is that the economy will recover. More are saying this is a rough patch and it is going to take a long time to recover. But still, almost everyone assumes we will recover. Without growth, growth based systems collapse.

In my opinion we are facing a cargo cult. They will not be shaken in their absolute need to believe that the good times of 2005 will return. They will impede any effort to lower the life boats because they will not accept the inevitable conclusion that it is over.

We are still in the denial phase. If the realization strikes home in 2013, that will begin the rage phase.

The general public will go to the polls and vote this November asserting that this can all be fixed if we just put the right man in office. When it cannot be fixed, they will blame the politicians. Then they will blame the bankers. They may even blame the government.

We may fundamentally change our progressive view that government can solve our problems. When the realization that no government committee, law or program will put one more drop of oil in the ground, we will have shattered the perpetual growth paradigm that has been in place for four hundred years.

That my friends will produce a phase shift that will be felt around the world.

I think you're right, a lot of people are going to be pissed off. Blame will go all over the place, alternative energy will probably have a nice run too. People think investing in that will fix the problem and make them money at the same time.

[repost from another thread]

Cloud9 wrote:It is the exponential doubling in the last five minutes that trips up our monkey brains.

I agree. Martenson's example of bringing two powerful hand-held magnets together to analogize how our human brains are incapable of grasping the exponential doubling is quite accurate: at first, with our arms far apart, the magnets behave normally; but then, as we gradually bring our hands together such that the magnets approach one another, at some unpredictable point, they suddenly collide, taking us completely by surprise.

This is how the exponential function behaves. At first things appear normal, and the population happily dwells in LaLa Land, oblivious to the impending, inevitable collision. This is the Cornucipian world of unicorns and fairy dust.

But then, suddenly, the hockey-stick portion of the exponential function engages, and, without any warning, the house-of-cards begins a rapid trajectory toward collapse.

The exponential function ALWAYS behaves this way. There has never been an exception to this ... nor can there be (as a matter of mathematics).

So the only question is whether, and to what extent, the financial house-of-cards is an exponential function. Chris Martenson answers this by demonstrating that, up until the 2008 mini-collapse, there has been a 98.89% correlation between the real-world exponential debt growth and the theoretical, mathematical exponential equation (see video @ 9:00). It's a "perfect fit."

So that's the mathematical proof that the US (and global) debt/credit market: (1) is an exponential function and is growing exponentially; (2) has historically behaved like all other exponential functions; and (3) except for the 2008 mini-collapse, is poised to continue to behave like all other exponential functions. Once the central bankers regrouped in 2008 after the mini-collapse, the exponential function quickly recovered and will continue mercilessly until either another mini-collapse, or until the final collapse (Martenson predicts 2013) of the financial house-of-cards.

Cloud9 wrote:If Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth.

If Martenson is correct and the hockey-stick portion of the exponential curve accelerates in 2013, followed rapidly by sudden collapse, then it's too late to do anything about it. Everyone is now going about their lives BAU, and no one in power seems to have a clue (or, if they do know, they're not publicizing this).

Now I'm curious what collapse and post-collapse will look like ... next year, in 2013 ...

Cloud9 wrote:We are still in the denial phase.

As Martenson notes, it's purely human nature to assume that the historical past will continue into the future. Our minds are not equipped to grasp things like exponential functions and sudden phase-changes.

So it's more than just denial; it's etched into our genes to resist these "radical" concepts and to structure our lives in the firm belief that the way of our ancestors will continue for us and our children.

Daniel_Plainview wrote:

Cloud9 wrote:If Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real. He is right in that all of our current systems are based on growth.

If Martenson is correct and the hockey-stick portion of the exponential curve accelerates in 2013, followed rapidly by sudden collapse, then it's too late to do anything about it. Everyone is now going about their lives BAU, and no one in power seems to have a clue (or, if they do know, they're not publicizing this).

Now I'm curious what collapse and post-collapse will look like ... next year, in 2013 ...

There wont be any sudden collapse when you account for all the demand there is to destroy, natural gas and all the energy efficiency there is to implement. We have a window or a "bridge," even Martenson thinks so. That will put a damper on the hockey stick phenomenon, probably not a big one, but enough to give a portion of the world an opportunity for transition.

Daniel_Plainview wrote:

Cloud9 wrote:We are still in the denial phase.

As Martenson notes, it's purely human nature to assume that the historical past will continue into the future. Our minds are not equipped to grasp things like exponential functions and sudden phase-changes.

So it's more than just denial; it's etched into our genes to resist these "radical" concepts and to structure our lives in the firm belief that the way of our ancestors will continue for us and our children.

This is a VERY IMPORTANT point to take away from this discussion. Its been my personal observation that the BIAS towards this normal progression of progress is extremely strong in most folks and intelligence is no tool to overcoming it. You either "GET" the exponents thing or you dont. Afer seeing Dr Bartlett's video many years ago, it dawned on me why I seemed to think just a bit differently than others. I think it is also what has allowed me to grasp this concept so easily too.

mmasters wrote:[There wont be any sudden collapse when you account for all the demand there is to destroy, natural gas and all the energy efficiency there is to implement. We have a window or a "bridge," even Martenson thinks so. That will put a damper on the hockey stick phenomenon, probably not a big one, but enough to give a portion of the world an opportunity for transition.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Look what has happened to the population of Egypt this last year. That was sudden enough from their point of view. Just yesterday some 200 people were shot dead by their government in Syria for disagreeing with said government. There have already been riots in London over student tuition fees and Occupy Wall street in the US by people that aren't even sure what they are protesting or what they want to come of it.
All the major governments of the world have promised their poor and elderly more then the governments can deliver without a robustly growing economy. Just dropping those checks back to what is sustainable under current conditions will cause a tidal wave of change through our economies that no one is prepared to handle.

alert: US specific

I'd like to ping in a little here... there is an assertion that government will seize PM's at some point in the future in the face of devaluation. I know its a popular thing to think, when your baseline approach to things insists that the government is the enemy, and since Bob has x-odd ounces of gold, the malicious government will want to confiscate in, because that will make Bob suffer.

I think this is exactly opposite of what the government is projecting, and in point of fact government seems to favor individual held gold as a buffer against "really really bad outcomes". The government doesn't owe anyone gold. The government doesn't owe anyone silver. The government doesn't even need to care whether O5 paychecks are stated in dollars or millions of dollars. Its just a little ink difference. Everything it owes is ink and paper. Everything it buys is done in ink and paper. Everything it OWNS IS NOT INK AND PAPER. Just consider the trivial assets of all Western public land or GOM oil leases. It owns stuff of real value, and owes stuff of trivial value.

On the other side, everything people owe TO the government, is denominated in that ink and paper. It has value, not because of backing from gold, land, or oil, but because I go to prison if I refuse to fork over the amount of ink and paper that the government says I shall fork over.

Backing an inflating currency with a PM is beyond stupid. They will not do it. It would destroy their budgets, their processes, everything. It will be ink next year, it will be ink a decade from now. Whether Bob is buying bread for $3 a loaf, or $300 a loaf, doesn't matter a hill of beans to the government.

They *WANT* us to hold PMs. (think about the income tax assessment on sold gold that you'll have to declare as bought at $200... when it sells for $2 million, eh?)
They *WANT* us to keep significant food assets.
Anything that brings physical wealth and buffering assets into American possession is a massive positive from the point of view of government.

If anything, they are distressed that the buy-in is so wimpy.

AgentR11 wrote:Backing an inflating currency with a PM is beyond stupid. They will not do it. It would destroy their budgets, their processes, everything. It will be ink next year, it will be ink a decade from now. Whether Bob is buying bread for $3 a loaf, or $300 a loaf, doesn't matter a hill of beans to the government.

I don't think it's likely the USD or any other currency will be rebacked but that the central banks may back a global basket of currencies against gold and manipulate the backing of it as they see fit. I agree it probably wont solve much...

Best to have combinations of assets: land to plant, some gold (alcohol, ammo, tobacco are good, too), etc. More important, skills needed to survive or to maintain sustainable living (e.g., planting, processing, and storing food, basic health care, etc.), and a community to work with.

I think the problem is that the government has figured out a way to "extend and pretend". They have managed to hold up the system with more and more stimulus and outright money printing. Fortunately thus far it's worked, but when it doesn't any more we'll fall off a cliff. I am afraid of the outcome, so I think we need to extend and pretend for as long as possible. Unfortunately I don't think they'll be able to hold the system up for too much longer whatever they do. I think as soon as the next president gets in there the whole thing could fall down. I visited Greece a couple of years ago and all was fine. Now it's turned into a basket case. What a difference a few years makes.

5 years ago rural bus routes in Greece had shiny new vehicles with drivers insisting on a large tip to let people on the bus. They thought they could be European (live large on credit) and old school (corruption and who you know makes all the difference) at the same time and prosper. For some reason northern Europeans are much more disciplined than southern. Germany for example should have been one of the first to have big problems, having had to absorb the unproductive east recently. Instead it came out clearly on top (so far). This is totally down to the industriousness of the German people. I doubt it has much to do with government settings.

kiwichick wrote:th practician

so you trust paper

been to zimbabwe lately?

Have you ? Zimbabwe's economic growth is 3 times Australia's, despite of virtually nobody doing anything

Pretorian wrote:

kiwichick wrote:th practician

so you trust paper

been to zimbabwe lately?

Have you ? Zimbabwe's economic growth is 3 times Australia's, despite of virtually nobody doing anything

Zimbabweans are far from stupid. I know folks from all over Africa, working here in Australia. The Zimbos are the only ones with a serious plan about getting their country back. They are buying it with gold.

Cloud9 wrote:"If Martinson is right, the crunch time comes somewhere in 2013 when the general public comes to realize that peak oil is real"

I don't think anyone is going to realize that peak oil is real. Most people have no clue whatsoever and are easily manipulated. It will be the evil arabs who are keeping them from their oil, or the enviros or whoever they decide caused the problem. They will have no clue what's happening, but they won't have a vehicle running either. They will be pissed off and will take it out on us if we mention peak oil or anything that resembles the truth. Best to be quiet about peak oil and the economic collapse and when people talk about how there is a lot of oil but "they" won't let us drill it just smile and nod.

A former student got a ride from me and asked me how many cylinders my truck has. When I told him that it was a 4 cylinder he told me he would never drive a "4 banger". I asked him if he was too embarrassed to take a ride and would he rather walk, but he was able to overcome his principles and I gave him a ride as far as I was going. He eventually got an 8 cylinder truck going and is now happily getting about 5 miles per gallon. People don't do things because they make sense. This forum is great, but the vast majority of people can't think for themselves and just do whatever their culture tells them to do. They won't know peak oil is what's happening to them and will react angrily when told the facts.

Gold value is inflated just like diamonds. No, it's NOT a rare mineral.

The only 'gold' thingy I want is a gold chalice.

Why do you think the gods drank from one of these?

One thing regarding the link between the population growth and energy consumption growth:

Possibly, the energy consumption should be linked to the growing number of the global aristocracy -"middle class" and above - rather than the growth of the population per se, as of yet. Until very recently, most of the energy consumption and its growth belonged to the first world, whose population numbers and growth were minor compared to the rest of world. So "the last five minutes" should first look at the middle class numbers, and only then - to the entire world's population.

SeaGypsy wrote:5 years ago rural bus routes in Greece had shiny new vehicles with drivers insisting on a large tip to let people on the bus. They thought they could be European (live large on credit) and old school (corruption and who you know makes all the difference) at the same time and prosper. For some reason northern Europeans are much more disciplined than southern. Germany for example should have been one of the first to have big problems, having had to absorb the unproductive east recently. Instead it came out clearly on top (so far). This is totally down to the industriousness of the German people. I doubt it has much to do with government settings.

Around 70 pct of the German labor force work in the service industry, and 70 pct of its income come from the same source. The configuration is similar for Greece, and probably for many other industrialized countries.

SeaGypsy wrote:

Pretorian wrote:

kiwichick wrote:th practician

so you trust paper

been to zimbabwe lately?

Have you ? Zimbabwe's economic growth is 3 times Australia's, despite of virtually nobody doing anything

Zimbabweans are far from stupid. I know folks from all over Africa, working here in Australia. The Zimbos are the only ones with a serious plan about getting their country back. They are buying it with gold.

Them shiny things which have very little practical value.