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The End of Normal - Part 1: Conversation with John Doyle of EU Foresight Group
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlZhQJBZ574

I found this conversation somewhat positive to listen to. Sort of Hope out of Adversity.

One reader's comment:

Clearly the old normal was unsustainable and our poorly evolved primate species had no viable plan to change course. Our hubris has been exposed, capitalism is on a ventilator, wealth is no longer the measure of what is essential, the air is clearer than it has been in decades, thank you mother nature for the wake up call.

Yeah, the rush to get back to 'normal' in many parts of the US, along with the general ignorance of the US population, is likely to push back the time when we get back to 'normal' quite a ways.

And, as the piece rightly points out...we need to be doing some really hard thinking about what kind of 'normal' we even want to work toward, but thinking is not always a strong suit for many in the US

• A vaccine is not likely to be better than about 70% effective. By itself, that could get us close to an artificial 'herd immunity'

• But polling suggests that up to a third of the country will refuse to take any such vaccine. So that would put the number down below 50%, even with a pretty effective vaccine, far below what anyone thinks the herd immunity percentage is for this thing. Even with many Americans apparently working hard to achieve 'natural' herd immunity, we will not likely get there for quite a while, again, even with a fairly effective vaccine. And of course, the virus being new, no one knows how long either natural or vaccine immunity will last.

dohboi wrote:
• But polling suggests that up to a third of the country will refuse to take any such vaccine. So that would put the number down below 50%, even with a pretty effective vaccine, far below what anyone thinks the herd immunity percentage is for this thing. Even with many Americans apparently working hard to achieve 'natural' herd immunity, we will not likely get there for quite a while, again, even with a fairly effective vaccine. And of course, the virus being new, no one knows how long either natural or vaccine immunity will last.

Let's be realistic about this. If you are old or with comorbidity issues and there is a vaccine available and you refuse it than the social contract society has with you has been fulfilled and if you die as a result it is your fault alone.

All of the younger population who are healthy who opt out of the vaccine aren't going to die if they catch Covid19 so the impact wont be felt beyond a few sick days with flu like symptoms. If even!

A vaccine taken by the vulnerable population means that herd immunity is no longer necessary. It would be necessary if Covid19 killed indiscriminately across all age groups and to both healthy and sick. But we only need vaccinate the vulnerable population in the case of Covid19.

With a vaccine the whole topic of herd immunity becomes irrelevant exactly because we know which segment of society is vulnerable and a vaccine only needs to target this segment.

If the goal like smallpox is to completely eliminate the virus then yes we could attempt herd immunity and force everyone to get vaccinated.
But Covid19 is innocuous for the vast majority of the population and a full scale herd immunity like small pox is not necessary and is not going to happen.

Ibon wrote:

dohboi wrote:
• But polling suggests that up to a third of the country will refuse to take any such vaccine. So that would put the number down below 50%, even with a pretty effective vaccine, far below what anyone thinks the herd immunity percentage is for this thing. Even with many Americans apparently working hard to achieve 'natural' herd immunity, we will not likely get there for quite a while, again, even with a fairly effective vaccine. And of course, the virus being new, no one knows how long either natural or vaccine immunity will last.

Let's be realistic about this. If you are old or with comorbidity issues and there is a vaccine available and you refuse it than the social contract society has with you has been fulfilled and if you die as a result it is your fault alone.

All of the younger population who are healthy who opt out of the vaccine aren't going to die if they catch Covid19 so the impact wont be felt beyond a few sick days with flu like symptoms. If even!

A vaccine taken by the vulnerable population means that herd immunity is no longer necessary. It would be necessary if Covid19 killed indiscriminately across all age groups and to both healthy and sick. But we only need vaccinate the vulnerable population in the case of Covid19.

So if where you live there's a 70% chance you won't be gunned down in the street over the next year, that's safe enough for your family?

If we don't reach enough herd immunity to have the virus die out over time, then the old and vulnerable aren't SAFE at all if people who won't take the vaccine are spreading the virus willy nilly over time and exposing others to it.

You keep acting like the risk to others doesn't matter for this thing. It does.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:

Ibon wrote:

dohboi wrote:
• But polling suggests that up to a third of the country will refuse to take any such vaccine. So that would put the number down below 50%, even with a pretty effective vaccine, far below what anyone thinks the herd immunity percentage is for this thing. Even with many Americans apparently working hard to achieve 'natural' herd immunity, we will not likely get there for quite a while, again, even with a fairly effective vaccine. And of course, the virus being new, no one knows how long either natural or vaccine immunity will last.

Let's be realistic about this. If you are old or with comorbidity issues and there is a vaccine available and you refuse it than the social contract society has with you has been fulfilled and if you die as a result it is your fault alone.

All of the younger population who are healthy who opt out of the vaccine aren't going to die if they catch Covid19 so the impact wont be felt beyond a few sick days with flu like symptoms. If even!

A vaccine taken by the vulnerable population means that herd immunity is no longer necessary. It would be necessary if Covid19 killed indiscriminately across all age groups and to both healthy and sick. But we only need vaccinate the vulnerable population in the case of Covid19.

So if where you live there's a 70% chance you won't be gunned down in the street over the next year, that's safe enough for your family?

If we don't reach enough herd immunity to have the virus die out over time, then the old and vulnerable aren't SAFE at all if people who won't take the vaccine are spreading the virus willy nilly over time and exposing others to it.

You keep acting like the risk to others doesn't matter for this thing. It does.

If we want to approach this topic realistically considering the movement of people around the world we have to face the fact that herd immunity would only be viable if it was global. If within wealthy and well educated countries you have folks that will opt out how are you going to achieve this. The next best thing is to focus immunization on those likely to have severe symptoms and that is already known.

Ibon wrote:If we want to approach this topic realistically considering the movement of people around the world we have to face the fact that herd immunity would only be viable if it was global. If within wealthy and well educated countries you have folks that will opt out how are you going to achieve this. The next best thing is to focus immunization on those likely to have severe symptoms and that is already known.

Once it's been well tested and is quite safe, then I think folks who opt out also opt out of ANY government benefits. Behavior has consequences.

And if globally, countries aren't controlling it once vaccines are well established and available, then quarantines or travel bans will work.

This thing CAN be dealt with re reaching effective herd immunity, once the technology (effective vaccines in abundant supply) exist. The only question is whether the political will to use it effectively exists.

Given how much of the US population is depending on / expecting a whole lot of government benefits, I think the vast majority of anti-vaxxers might whine a lot, but will be willing to do their part, just as they are happy to take the "evil gommint's" money.

Antivaxxers were a problem long before COVID. If they don't get vaccinated then those who do should not care what happens to them. They've made their bed and they should sleep in it.

Please don't forget that as we are learning about this disease, we are finding more and more long term effects. This is not the flu.

So even for younger folks, there will be heavy consequences for many.

And of course in the US, there are a lot of people with co-morbidities that could make this deadly as well...roughly half the population.

One clear advantage of the vaccines is that all the medical personnel will get it right away, so they won't have to risk their lives caring for patients, many of whom will be there either because they weren't careful or because they refused vaccines themselves.

As OS points out, if the goal is to get this under enough control enough to do thorough contact tracing...I don't see that happening any time soon. And until we do, we will be the global pariah for all the countries that have gotten this thing under some control

Part of getting Covid 19 under control is learning to coexist with its presence. This is not an ideological statement but rather a highly likely outcome of Covid19 still being around even with a vaccine. This is the view of quite a few epidemiologists by the way. 8 billion unruly monkeys lining up in lockstep for a vaccine seems like a pretty tall order!

Airlines are very concerned about passengers feeling safe to fly post Covid19. If a vaccine is available airlines could require all passengers to show a vaccination certificate in order to fly. Or a certificate of antibodies if they were ill with Covid before the vaccination. This would actually prevent re infections around the world. The ministries of Health around the world in each country will probably also require this vaccination certificate of all arriving passengers. This would pretty much force all travelers to get vaccinated if they want to travel.

I would assume this will become a requirement for travel once a vaccination is available.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
So if where you live there's a 70% chance you won't be gunned down in the street over the next year, that's safe enough for your family?

If we don't reach enough herd immunity to have the virus die out over time, then the old and vulnerable aren't SAFE at all if people who won't take the vaccine are spreading the virus willy nilly over time and exposing others to it.

You keep acting like the risk to others doesn't matter for this thing. It does.

OS, I wonder what you mean when you say "... to have the virus die out over time, ...". Do you expect the virus to cease to exist? I don't expect this virus to die out ever, if this is what you meant. I expect this virus to become like the flu viruses and become a part of the "new normal". We are extremely likely to have to live with it for the rest of our lives. I'd be amazed if we managed to eradicate it from the planet in our lifetimes. I believe it will keep both mutating and spreading and become as common as the flu.

By the way, I really love the expression "the new normal" and I vote for it to become the new expression of the year for 2020. It implies an acceptance of the fact that the old normal is never coming back that I find refreshing.

Ibon wrote:Part of getting Covid 19 under control is learning to coexist with its presence. This is not an ideological statement but rather a highly likely outcome of Covid19 still being around even with a vaccine. This is the view of quite a few epidemiologists by the way. 8 billion unruly monkeys lining up in lockstep for a vaccine seems like a pretty tall order!

My doctor will be flushing my dose.

This is just the appetizer.

It is a difficult balance, open society, and keep those most vulnerable out of society until a vaccine.

A lot of young people will sure be affected by this whole mess.

Ibon wrote:The ministries of Health around the world in each country will probably also require this vaccination certificate of all arriving passengers.

GOOD