Peak Oil News and Message Boards

Thanks for the welcome everyone. This seems like a pretty cool place. I obviously have a lot to learn.

Rockman and onlooker,

Ok I get how peak oil is real even though I read that peak oil was totally dead in a bunch of places. But oil is really cheap because there is so much of it right? with so much cheap oil around, that doesn't sound like much to worry about in my opinion. I think I kind of get the "peak oil dynamic" POD stuff you said but how could cheap oil make the world end?

Sum do not be fooled by the current "cheap" oil. First off, it not really cheap by historical standards. Second as I said this peak oil dynamic involves alot of counteracting effects, so the high price back in 2008 spurred more development and production of unconventional oil like tar sands. This has allowed production to be ramped up more for the time being. However, this will be short lived as this relatively low oil price is weakening this unconventional oil sector setting up for lower production rates which in turn will mean ultimately less net oil translating to higher prices in accord with the law of supply and demand. A term you should become intimately familiar with is EROEI. This is energy return on energy invested. This means that the plays or oil fields currently coming online or recently online require more energy to ultimately reach the final product and be sold. Unconventional Oil by definition has a less favorable EROEI than conventional oil. That is why conventional was first used because it is analogous to picking the low hanging fruit before settling for the more difficult to access higher hanging fruit. So the term glut is a bit disingenuous as it is relative to what buyers/consumers can and are willing to pay.

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Welcome on board , I hope you will find interesting thing here
every member has its personal bee in their bonnet , mine is food production

as for the end of the world as we know it , it's a contentious proposition both in form and intensity

Cog wrote:Welcome back from your last banned user name.

I smell troll...

Of course SumYunGai is not my real name obviously. Is radon1 your real name. Or SeaGypsy. Of course not. I am a gamer and that is the same name I use for that so I use it here too.

I am Chinese American and the joke from the Waynes World movie is a rip off from the original old joke in Cantonese to make fun of Americans. The real soup was actually named 三 杯 雞 which sounds like Sam Bui Gai in English and it actually means 3 CUP chicken. This was changed to 三 飲 雞 which means 3 DRINK chicken which sounds like Sam Yum Gai in English. So it is funny in 2 languages.

Just the trollish pattern. Show up posing as newbie, next post "oh, but I read in sooo many places peak oil is dead..." dime a dozen argument I've lost track in the hundreds have come & gone. The core issues of peak oil have not gone away, they form the basis of a heck of a lot of everything that happens.

Sum - Here's a statement that might confuse you. But chew on it for a while: In the Rockman's opinion the boom in the US oil production rate and the subsequent crash of oil prices from over $100/bbl to less the $30/bbl is one of the best indication of the PO problem. It might seem counterintuitive but you need to start grasping the cause and effect relationships of energy.

For instance a very old truism: the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. Just as the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices...eventually. The time lag between cause and effect is difficult to see at first. But over years it will make itself evident if you follow the breadcrumbs.

BTW my 16 yo daughter was born in Jiujiang and adopted in 2000. And she's doing her part to use up our "cheap oil" as fast as possible: daddy just bought his country girl a used pickup truck. LOL.

Hi Seagypsy,

But I dont think that peak oil is dead really. I just said I read that in a lot of places. But those articles are lying about peak oil obviously. Peak oil makes true sense because nothing lasts forever because the earth is not infinite right? And everything runs on oil so I get it for sure.

Hi Rockman,

So you are saying that supply and demand makes the "POD" happen. Of course that makes good sense to me. I guess the end of the world because of peak oil might be like a question of only timing. Well I sure hope not. But we have low oil prices now so thats not so bad and it seems like it might be a while at least right? And maybe the oil price goes up but then drops again and it all repeats over and over like a cycle. And what about electric cars like Tesla and solar power? They are getting better all the time. I cant understand why my friend says the world is ending right now. Oh please. It still makes no sense to me. So how long do YOU think before supply and demand can really cause high oil prices that really hurt the economy bad enough to make the world end? I mean if you believe that of course.

Yeah, but admit it Peter, we have had way more reincarnated hacks the last few years than genuine newbies. Onlooker is the only new regular poster in the last 2 years? How many incarnations have copious abundance, carlrunehole, americannzcommiedreamer, mossenui, oh there must be others... Ok my bad maybe the OP is genuine in which case I am a grumpy old man having a bad day, peace & love.

Sum - Here's a hint on how to deal with friends that say things like "...the world is ending right now. Oh please. It still makes no sense to me." It makes no sense because that phrase is meaningless. Or more correctly it means anything one wants it to mean. Ask them for very specific details.

One of the problems/benefits of the POD is that it includes every aspect of the energy situation from very impactful factors to minor side effects. Trying to focus on just a couple of factors will often make little sense. Which is why you see countless debates here focused on individual aspects of the POD.

There will be no "end of the world" or sudden "end of the oil age". Nor will oil production " fall off a cliff". As I said before such bumper sticker philosophies won'tvcome close to capture the complexity of the energy situation. Don't let them distract you from your quest.

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I used to be a gamer until I took an arrow in the knee !

Hi SumYumGai. Welcome to the site, and I don't see what it matters what your handle is.

If you hang around here for a while, you'll notice that there is a heavy bias toward the attitude that peak oil is in our face and thus we're all doomed real soon now.

If you dare to propose an alternate view, due to conflicting data (like that there is obviously a big oil glut now), you tend to get many people upset.

I wouldn't worry about it. I got on here to learn about oil's real place in the world, since I wanted to invest in it long term. I get some of that info here, and a lot of other stuff too...

You'll find that there are a whole range of opinions and issues. There is some intelligent debate and discussion, and some less so. People are different -- so be it.

Disclosure: I'm a moderate, who thinks we'll likely keep stumbling along and screwing many things up for many decades yet at least. I have major concerns about global warming (AGW), but I also see some very hopeful things, like how quickly some very effective and moderately priced PHEV (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) that are Chevy Volt clones with some improvements (but shorter all electric range so far) are coming to market from a variety of quality car companies.

So I'm cautiously optimistic, but am VERY concerned about how slowly we are moving toward green energy sources like solar and wind, and how we are doing very little about endlessly increasing the global population, and thus how much stress we put on the planet.

Though I think peak oil is "real", I think AGW completely dwarfs peak oil in the next 50 years or so, as far as being a severe problem.

welcome and I am also new to this forum lets see what I can learn from here

I've been reading here for a while... but it's the time to say something)
I know a lot about Kazakhstan's oil fields, not the last ones in the world. It's also my way to try myself in english speaking talks.

Welcome Mr. K! It would be great if you can keep us up-to-date on production rates as operations ramp up.

And your English is good enough. Some here speak perfect English but doesn't change the fact they have nothing worth listening to. LOL.

yes, with Kashagan finally set to start producing at high rates the Kazakh story is worth revisiting.