Peak Oil News and Message Boards

This feels like a reincarnation. Reading my old posts is like reviewing someone else's life. That's a good thing. I have evolved. Had it felt too familiar or like it was yesterday, that would have indicated failure.


Anyways... I've come back to see if any of the predictions us early-birders made in 2005 were even close. Sixteen years ought to be enough to provide some clarity and contrast -- and maybe some answers. Hopefully, a little bit of that chatter was preserved here somewhere.

Also, got a colleague or two who are interested in perusing advise on how to sustain 'off-grid' more or less. That seems to be getting more relevant, as it were. Weather patterns being somewhat more... unpredictable, and all. As they say, it'll probably come down to location, location, location.

I'll try to get them signed up.

Enviro/Michel,

Welcome back. You will see lots of new faces and a few oldies.

My take is that the collapse is hard to see if you look narrowly at oil. If you interpret the goal as to look more widely at “resource depletion” oil, gas, water, the atmospheres ability to absorb pollutants, the the trend is pretty clear.

It strike me we are nearing or have passed the Limits to Growth apex and are getting a peak at the downside. Still lots of deniers. That will change in the next few years.

We are largely off grid.

EnviroEngr wrote:This feels like a reincarnation. Reading my old posts is like reviewing someone else's life. That's a good thing. I have evolved. Had it felt too familiar or like it was yesterday, that would have indicated failure.


Anyways... I've come back to see if any of the predictions us early-birders made in 2005 were even close. Sixteen years ought to be enough to provide some clarity and contrast -- and maybe some answers. Hopefully, a little bit of that chatter was preserved here somewhere.

Also, got a colleague or two who are interested in perusing advise on how to sustain 'off-grid' more or less. That seems to be getting more relevant, as it were. Weather patterns being somewhat more... unpredictable, and all. As they say, it'll probably come down to location, location, location.

I'll try to get them signed up.

Hey long time no see! How have things been going?

Off grid is the way to go. Life boat when the civilization ship is sinking.

>> Replies Forthcoming <<
.
Also, there are a couple forums I could use access to that appear to be out of reach at the moment. I'll follow up on that shortly.

EnviroEngr wrote:This feels like a reincarnation. Reading my old posts is like reviewing someone else's life. That's a good thing. I have evolved. Had it felt too familiar or like it was yesterday, that would have indicated failure.

Every decade or so (I'm in my early 60's) since I hit about 30, some event or book or discussion or something causes me to just stop and think (paraphrasing): "Wow! Thinking back it's like I'm just a COMPLETELY different person in various ways. I wonder what the main reasons for that are?"

It could be evolution, or experience, or maturing or age-related decline in speed of mental function or energy levels, or what happens re evolution of technology and choices for first world people as time goes on (and the pace of change accelerates). Or of course, it could be things my little brain just isn't thinking of.

But I suspect that for most people who like to learn and think about things a lot, that perception of becoming a VERY different person (and not just physically or financially) over time is a pretty common thing.

Some of my more reading/philosophizing minded friends certainly didn't act at all surprised when I brought up that idea, including that they thought that such evolution was a GOOD thing.

Re: indicating failure, for some people and their goals, say from some eastern religions, they might think NOT evolving their basic thinking much was success. I'm thinking of, say, masters in the Shaolin Monk temples as depicted in the spirit of the Kung Fu series.

And all I can think about that as I watch so much hate rage around me between various groups in the US is: for such things, except re judging myself, who in hell am *I* to judge?

Newfie wrote:It strike me we are nearing or have passed the Limits to Growth apex and are getting a peak at the downside. Still lots of deniers. That will change in the next few years.

Always the assumption that the big change is "in our face", despite decades and decades showing that doesn't seem to be the case, despite all the predictions.

Collapse can be occuring, even if it takes many decades or several centuries to unfold. And a LOT can happen to adapt, even as that occurs.

The experts keep claiming that the global population will reach something like 11 billion or so by 2050 or so, but that at some point population will stop growing because education levels will rise high enough.

Of course, I, who am (LONG TERM) a pessimist about our plight, given human nature toward wanting ALL they can afford AND borrow, in the main, think having 11 billion people, much less the current 7.8 billion or so people, is a very BAD idea.

But that still most certainly does NOT mean that a significant proportion of the deniers will suddenly "wake up" in the next FEW years, given what's transpired in the last 50 or so, and they mostly rail against science, logic, math, facts, and turn to their conspiracy theory of choice, or just avoid any input from those who don't think like them.

rangerone314 wrote:Off grid is the way to go. Life boat when the civilization ship is sinking.

So if civilization is really "sinking" (not just the usual inconveniences occurring"), what happens when the zombie hordes come by looking for handouts, or to take what they "need"?

What then? Shoot them all? That seems to be my brother-in-law's plan, though I don't think it will buy him more than an extra month. (The zombies will organize into gangs and gather weapons of their own). It also seems a bit odd to me, given that he's very religious and in fact a former preacher.

But what do I know?

In my world, things like living WELL within one's means and taking good care of one's health are orders of magnitude more likely to be helpful to survival to old age than, say, being "off grid".

Though I'll admit to having a Generac whole house generator that runs great for a day or a few weeks, just through experience and common sense. And when the power is out for days, having my own backup power source is mighty convenient and even enjoyable. Without, BTW, actually giving up much of anything.

Well, it's been a year already...

I'm starting to think I need to measure milestones in Yugas; I feel horribly much like TreeBeard these days.

It's been 20 years and I think that people are starting to notice that things aren't quite in the same balance they were centuries ago.

Imagine that. Hopeful hopelessness.