[SelfGov]

Hello, Everybody!

Back in 2008 I was contracted to build a "Central Bank" type application for points-based incentive systems. Before this I had avoided economics completely because everything I had read up to that point sounded like pure fantasy or uninterestingly complex. My disinterest in economics was trumped by my interest in paying my rent so I started reading books/articles on economics and central banking.

The very first thing I read was Economics in One Lesson by Henry Hazlitt.

The first thing I concluded is that modern economics is a specialized branch of anthropology that studies greed under the assumptions that biology, ecology and physics are make-believe. Modern economics is specifically averse to anything having to do with the Second Law of Thermodynamics.

The second thing I concluded is that there was much more behind the last 250 years of exponential growth than the "freedom and human ingenuity" our elders would have us praise.

When I saw the graph linked below I knew I had found my source of economic growth...

http://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.c ... el-use.png

It doesn't take a college dropout to identify ecological overshoot when one sees it.

I don't believe humanity will go extinct. I don't think Peak Oil will mean the end of civilization.

I do believe there will be mass starvation and much chaos as humanity passes through what can be called a "Population Bottleneck."

I like to let facts speak for themselves...

Every day the Bakken produces a little over half a million barrel. This is enough to fuel the US for 40 minutes.

In its 30 year lifetime a Bakken well will produce enough oil to keep the world economy running for 9 minutes.

Since 1990 humanity has consumed as much oil as it did in the 1,000 years previous.

[Plantagenet]

When we ran out of mammoth dung to burn, humans shifted to wood
When there wasn't enough wood, we shifted to peat
When peat wasn't enough, we shifted to coal
When the coal wouldn't do it, we shifted to oil

I wonder what people will think of next?

[SelfGov]

It would seem that you believe natural gas is the next big thing.

That would lead to me believing you haven't done much math on the subject.

Natural Gas is a good investment but won't prevent a population bottleneck.

[vision-master]

LENR

[mmasters]

I don't think we have to worry about it too much in our lifetime, there's a lot we can scale back on and if you include natural gas we have a few decades before things start to get really bad. Our kids will get the bottleneck.

[Lore]

I don't think we have to worry about it too much in our lifetime, there's a lot we can scale back on and if you include natural gas we have a few decades before things start to get really bad. Our kids will get the bottleneck.

High fuel costs have already caused us to scale back and the results have not been encouraging. Massive unemployment, debt, decreasing medical coverage, and increased political/military tension have risen with shortages of fuel and rising prices. Maybe we have not scaled back enough. What should we scale back next? Food? Heat? Clothing?

Just think where we'd be if things were really going gangbusters with the world economy. Which is exactly why, things aren't. We can't dig ourselves out of the hole we've placed ourselves in. Any attempt to push the pedal to the metal is met with an opposite response of, no can do.

For instance, China is presently trying to convert from an export based to an internal consumption based economy. Which, will never happen due to resource constraints. Dealing with a billion and a half angry Chinese that have been duped into Western capitalism is going to tough for the government there and the rest of the world to grapple with. If we could only pull out the resources of four more earths from our back pocket.

I use to believe that us old folks just might escape the experience of the coming cliff. I'm not so certain anymore.

[vision-master]

Gas is $3.95 a gal here now, that $5 gal relality may be comming sooner than ya think.

[Plantagenet]

Natural Gas is a good investment

I can see you haven't done much math on the subject.

Natural gas has been a TERRIBLE investment-----fracking has found so much NG that the price in the US has plunged to record lows.



If the world does indeed go through a population bottleneck in the near term, it isn't going to be due to a lack of natural gas.

[Lore]

The world's bottleneck is being able to afford the exploitation of expensive alternatives to the cheap energy they've leaned to expect, no matter what the flavor.

[Plantagenet]

The world's bottleneck is being able to afford the exploitation of expensive alternatives to the cheap energy they've leaned to expect, no matter what the flavor.

Now that we are post the peak of oil production the global economy will either collapse, or we will be forced shift to an alternative energy source.

Fortunately, the logical alternative to gasoline isn't even expensive---its cheap natural gas.


Model b200 Natural Gas car by Mercedes Benz, going on the market in 2013.

[Lore]

Nat gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it. Switching to this as the next best fossil fuel alternative will change that. It's just basic economics. The transportation, the amount of energy produced per unit, and the ability to advance it at a productive rate are all detriments to its final use. In the end it's finite and then what?

[Scottie]

Nat gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it.

Natural gas consumption in the US for year ending 2011 was higher than at any time prior in the history of the country. We're not using enough of it?

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2a.htm

[ColossalContrarian]

I hate to hear people beat up on NG so much because I think it has transition potential. Everyone who thinks NG is still doomed should look at how well it's working for FedEx and UPS...

It won't last forever but has certainly been beneficial to those who jumped on the gravy train early!

Does anyone think UPS or FedEx would still be in business if they didn't switch?

[Lore]

Nat gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it.

Natural gas consumption in the US for year ending 2011 was higher than at any time prior in the history of the country. We're not using enough of it?

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2a.htm

Not enough to raise the price above production. If and when, which is doubtful, that we try stuffing it into ICE vehicles you can then watch it take a rocket ride up. Right now we're still engaged in using it, as we have in the past, for increasing use as electrical generation, replacing coal, and heating in some places.

[Lore]

Does anyone think UPS or FedEx would still be in business if they didn't switch?

I'm not aware that they have switched. Combined, I believe the number of vehicles now running CNG is pretty small. More of an experiment then a switch.

[Scottie]

Nat gas is only cheap now because we're not using enough of it.

Natural gas consumption in the US for year ending 2011 was higher than at any time prior in the history of the country. We're not using enough of it?

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2a.htm

Not enough to raise the price above production.

Which is the point. The drilling was so successful it created an outrageous surplus, even while the country was consuming more of it than ever. Too successful is a rarity nowadays, the consumers should just appreciate it I suppose.

If and when, which is doubtful, that we try stuffing it into ICE vehicles you can then watch it take a rocket ride up.

Maybe. But as soon as prices return to what started the wildly successful drilling in the first place, the drilling kicks in and then it is a race between the amount of resource, the speed of how fast it can be drilled, and the actual increase in demand.

Right now we're still engaged in using it, as we have in the past, for increasing use as electrical generation, replacing coal, and heating in some places.

Works for me. Certainly the future doesn't collapse for lack of energy in general.