Stan Odut is one of a growing contingent of oilmen now subscribing to the concept of peak oil – the notion that the planet’s maximum rate of oil extraction is at hand. After that point arrives, the rate of production will enter terminal decline. “I believe we probably aren’t going to see an increase on the supply side globally,” he says. “With the global economic situation there has been (crude oil) demand destruction, but I would add that there has also been supply destruction because drilling has been declining, producers are shutting in supply” and many large projects, world-wide, have gone on hold.
Prices are low because “right now oil is overbalanced on the supply side,” he says. “When things do recover, I think we are going to be in a really tight situation. The horizon might be shorter than many people predict. I think within the next five years – certainly within the next ten – we will meet a supply crunch probably like we have never seen before.”
“There’s a huge disconnect between developing world and developed world consumption,” he says. “Either we have to tap some alternative resources which we don’t really know about today, or many of us in the developed world are going to have to really cut down on our oil consumption. The developed world has to contract its consumption a lot.” This sounds ominous, and Stan Odut quickly adds that he doesn’t want to be a scare-monger.
“I’m getting a bit long in the tooth and I have an eye for what my grandchildren are going to face as we go down the road. I think they are going to be facing a different world from the one we are in today.”
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