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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

When will Oil Peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What is your idea/guesstimate of when global oil will peak.

It happened over a year ago
3
4%
It happened in the last year
3
4%
It's happening right now
15
22%
It will happen in the next year
8
12%
It will happen in the next 5 years
26
38%
It wont happen in the next 5 years
14
20%
 
Total votes : 69

Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 26 Feb 2018, 21:30:20

Yoshua wrote:Adam

I have made up my mind.

Peak conventional onshore 1980
Peak conventional onshore & offshore 2005
Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016


Excellent! Now if you can just figure out the chemical difference between this mythical "conventional" oil versus all that other stuff, we'll be in business!

Yoshua wrote:There is nowhere left to go. We are past peak oil. Now it's downhill.


That is what Deffeyes said about 2005. Colin Campbell about 1990. Jimmy Carter said something similar in 1977, for the late 1980's.

Any reason why you might finally be right this time, compared to 2 expert geologists and the President of the United States, informed at the time by the likes of Hubbert himself, working for the USGS?

Yoshua wrote:And the falling net energy from petroleum production will make the downhill ride very dangerous.


Peak oil fairy tales are irrelevant.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 02:45:48

In the good ole days they used $1B offshore oil rigs? They developed $10B oil fields like Manifa?

The diesel to drill a hole is a minor cost (as you have stated your self). It is the total cost that has gone up exponentially.

The largest part of the energy is consumed in the oil rigs and the development of an oil field. The TOTAL energy cost is rising exponentially.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 03:15:19

Capex = Energy

It takes energy to produce capex and that is were the most of the energy is consumed in oil production.

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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 13:13:16

Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016


And General Electric stock has been in free fall since middle of 2016 going from 30 to 14. It peaked at 60 in 2000 and has been see sawing its way to 0 ever since.

Total Collapse.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 20:06:42

StarvingLion wrote:
Peak conventional & unconventional onshore & offshore 2016


And General Electric stock has been in free fall since middle of 2016 going from 30 to 14. It peaked at 60 in 2000 and has been see sawing its way to 0 ever since.

Total Collapse.


Two years for a 50% swing is hardly a free fall collapse. Vompanies in rapid dclne drop like that in a mnth or a quarter, not over two years.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 27 Feb 2018, 22:24:11

Yoshua wrote:Capex = Energy


No. The units aren't even the same...one of the first things they teach you in engineering by the way, make sure you are talking about the same units. Yours aren't.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 22:59:19

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Capex = Energy


No. The units aren't even the same...one of the first things they teach you in engineering by the way, make sure you are talking about the same units. Yours aren't.

Given the generally random nature of all his pronouncements that have anything to do with economics, why should we be surprised by this?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 06:05:26

Capex > Cash Flow

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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby marmico » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 09:21:19

You mean ASPO Artie changed his tune. Tight oil was nuttin' but a retirement party at the ASPO May 2012 Austria get together but 6 years later it is now a marginal business. Oh, that's right. Artie did retire from ASPO.

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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 12:30:25

Yoshua wrote:Capex > Cash Flow

Image

Rockdoc has completely crushed such claims repeatedly on this site in recent months with simple explanations.

That you continue to completely ignore that and just repeat the same nonsense like a dog barking at every person it sees or a bird pecking at its reflection all day for weeks on end doesn't exactly speak to your credibility on this topic.

Any actual new or original thoughts?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 14:05:39

there will never be a geo-peak in oil. There's more oil in the ground every day than the previous day. The Earth produces more oil than humans consume every day. Every day the Earth produces more oil than it did the previous day. All the evidence so far aligns with this ( i.e. year on year world oil production records far beyound what doomers over the last 100 year thought possible ). Testament to the infinite oil under our feet is the fact that after decades of screams from doomers & finiters that this time THIS TIME we have really got to the end of oil, we are still at $50/barrel. That's barely scrapping the surface. Until oil gets past $1000 barrel, not even the most diehard doomer need raise and eyebrow or write a letter about peak oil. And that will never happen anyway.
No-one know this more than rockdoc aka david, but he's been swept over by this doomathon over this 'cheap and easy as water' $50 oil atm into believing peak oil is imminent, but he can't admit it. It's tangled in with his knowledge that there's barely inuf cash in the oil industry to keep the oil flowing, but thats just capitalism for u, big fish need famines so the little fish remain weak and can be eaten. Can't have all the little upstart oil companies getting established aside the big boys.
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Re: When will Oil Peak?

Unread postby GHung » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 19:21:04

peakoilwhen wrote:there will never be a geo-peak in oil..... blah, blah, blah...


There will never be a more obvious and less convincing troll-for-hire than 'peakoilwhen'.
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