[Pops]

US oil production will continue increasing slowly,1 returning near the previous peak by the end of the year. 2
US oil price will continue at about the same $75 level3 until storage returns to average levels.4



We haven't seen the peak5 yet but we're getting peaky,
And as I've always said, it ain't demand peak either. 6
US shale growth is mostly Permian and right now mostly shooting DUCs 7
More money won't come to oil investment8 so LTO growth will be slow.9

If you go to sites that talk about peak oil, they are speculating both RU and KSA are close to peak and the US is within a few years. KSA is always just a month away from crashing though, LOL

Russia on the other hand might have already 10

... Russian oil production might never recover to pre-coronavirus levels, the country’s Energy Ministry has forecast, according to the Kommersant business paper.

In a strategy document outlining prospects for Russia’s critical oil and gas industry, the government said its “base case” — or most likely — scenario, is that Russia’s oil production will never again hit the record levels recorded in 2019.

It is the Moscow times but I'll go with it...

In other news:
Stock market will fall 10% or more 11
Real Estate sales will fall: higher rates, Fed tightening, people hunkering 12
But RE prices will stay up because of out-migration from cities, especially 2nd homes—rural! 13

Omicron will kill more Republicans in the biggest surge yet via much higher R even though lower mortality, NPR 14
Everyone else will just get on with it, masked, vacced, etc 14
But Rs will retake congress, 16 even though trump announces for '24 17.
Rs will practice overthrowing democracy in the fall election and be successful in places... 18
...

After that last one my crystal ball gets all dark and smokey.

Start WAGing...NOW!

[Plantagenet]

Omicron will kill more Republicans

Its that a real prediction or just your wish list for what you want to see happen?
AND how exactly do you think the omicron virus will determine people's political affiliation?
When making predictions its always a good idea to look at the facts and then base predictions on the situation in the real world ......
So far the highest fatality rates have been in blue states like New York and New Jersey and the highest death rates have been among people of color who are predominantly Ds.
I don't see any reason that this well established pattern will change now, particularly as the omicron variant is quite capable of infecting people who are already vaccinated.

Rs will retake congress

I agree with that prediction. Biden and the Ds have screwed up just about everything during their short time in power. The Afghanistan withdrawal was disgracefully incompetent and people are unhappy about that. Biden has mishandled the economy and triggered off massive inflation and people are unhappy about that. Biden and the Ds through their idiotic policies of defunding the police and refusing to prosecute looters and rioters and shoplifters and smash and grabbers etc. have set off massive increases in the crime rate and murder rate in city after after, and people can't help but be unhappy about that. And Biden himself is a disgrace......he lies so much its like he's insane, and the fact that he's clearly senile doesn't excuse it. Finally, people are unhappy that the Ds (and the media) committed fraud on the entire USA by covering up Joe's mental deficiencies before the election.

Yes Rs will retake congress....both the House and the Senate.

And now I'll make some new predictions. I predict that after the Rs take the House and the Senate they will start to investigate Biden and the Ds. We need some clean air on a number of issues, including the claims in Hunter Biden's laptop that Biden took Hunter to China and Ukraine on AirForce2 for just one reason---- to solicit money, and that some of the money Hunter has raked in from China, Russia, etc. has gone directly to the "Big Guy" as Hunter calls Joe when he pays him off.

I predict Biden's handling of the Covid virus will also be investigated. We are now to the point that more Americans have died under Biden then died under Trump.....and thats in spite of the fact that Trump left Biden multiple vaccines to fight covid. So how did Biden screw it up? We found out just today.......Camela Harris admitted that the Biden administration never "saw the Delta dn Omicron viruses coming" They were so stupid they didn't switch to a new vaccine for Delta, and hundreds of thousands of people died. And here we are with omicron and Biden et alia still refuse to authorize a new vaccine. And so more people will needlessly die. Biden is STUPID STUPID STUPID not to authorize a new vaccine. People are needlessly dying and Biden needs to be held to account for his stupidity.

And we also need an investigation of Fauci.....its now pretty clear that Fauci funded technology transfer to the Wuhan lab to enable them to genetically engineer viruses.....and one of the reports Fauci received from EcoHealth reports that they had successfully upgraded a bat virus to make it 10,000 times more dangerous to humans. And that was shortly before the covid virus appeared in Wuhan. But Fauci covered all that up and lied when asked about it. Coincidence? We need to find out and, if necessary, put Fauci on trial in a Nuremberg style tribunal for his role in causing the deaths of millions of people.


I predict the new R Congress elected in 2022 will start investigations of Biden based on the Hunter Biden allegations about bribes and on Biden's total incompetence in dealing with the covid pandemic , and also of Fauci's role in funding and transferring technology to the Wuhan lab to enable them to genetically engineer bat viruses.

Cheers!

[careinke]

Thanks to Pops for starting this thread. As an amateur futurist, I always enjoy everybody’s prediction of the next year.

Just remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term. The reason being is Humans have a blind spot for truly understanding exponential growth. A quick example to demonstrate. Most of us know about the single grain of rice on a square of a chess board doubling each time until all 64 squares are filled. Someone figured it out using todays worldwide rice production and the average weight of a single grain of rice. The answer turns out to be, based on current production, it would take the next 10,000 years to produce enough rice to complete the task.

Here is another more relevant example I picked up from Jeff Booth’s book “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future.” We all know you can only fold a piece of paper about 7 times before it is not possible to fold it anymore leaving you with a folded piece of paper about an inch high. In his example he asks how high the paper would be IF you could continue folding it until you reached 50 folds. (I’ll post the answer at the end of this tome.)

Jeff then goes on to relate this to disruptive human technologies starting with Fire as the first fold. Control of fire (energy) is what separates humans from all other biological organisms. After fire, comes other techs, stone age, agriculture, movable print, etc. (I’m just naming some, not all of them). Anyway, there have been about 37 “folds” so far. At present time these “disruptions” have sped up to about one every 18 months.

Well this is getting a little long, so I’ll post my predictions for 2022 in my next post. Oh, the answer to folding the paper 50 times. It would reach from Earth to the sun!

PEACE

[Pops]

Just remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term.

We could do well taking that little tidbit to heart.

[Pops]

Omicron will kill more Republicans

Its that a real prediction or just your wish list for what you want to see happen?

I posted a link right in the same sentence showing it is already the case, I expect it to continue.
And no I don't wish Rs to die, which is why I wish they would take minimal precautions. But they've made a point to not and frankly I have stopped paying much attention.

[careinke]

OK, here are my 2022 predictions in no particular order;

1. Assets: Bitcoin will cross six figures, gold will decline, Index funds will decline, real estate will decline in cities and appreciate in most other areas except blue states, and silver will appreciate.

2. US dollar as the world currency: An attempt will be made to eliminate physical cash and replace it with a central bank e-dollar. This will fail even more dramatically than the e-won for similar reasons: Lack of transparency, lack of trust, and generally a surveillance system disguised as a currency. There is a slight possibility the US could adopt a decentralized stable coin backed by the US dollar instead. Top on the list is probably USDC, but there are others.


3. Banks: Will increase offerings of crypto currency management for their customers to remain relevant. Their sales pitch will include stress safety and “expertise” all red herrings.

4. Black Swans: Covid (it’s here forever), deflation (will not be recognized until later in the year), and weather/climate change events (more once in a thousand-year events).

5. Fossil Fuels: Consumption will continue up through the year. However, it will start transitioning away from using them for transportation and heat to more specialized uses like lubricants, plastics, and other specialized needs.

6. Agriculture: You can now produce tomatoes locally all year round in Connecticut cheaper than importing them from California. Food will continue to become cheaper and more profitable grown locally vs large scale agriculture. This will also cut down on pesticide and chemical fertilizer use.

7. Medical: Mabey not next year, but very soon, Primary Care physicians will become obsolete, replaced by AI with much better results. Same can be said for Anesthesiologists, Lab Technicians, Psychiatrists, Pharmacists, etc. etc.

8. Politics: The D vs R battle will continue with each side trying to divide the country using race, wealth disparity, city vs country etc. Fortunately, this will decrease as more people are red pilled into reality. Hopefully before civil war breaks out. The R’s will take over both houses in the 2022 election.

9. Education: Parents will take back control of primary education. Higher education will continue in it’s economic death throws, soon to be replaced by Web3, which will give everyone the very best teachers from all fields, and it will be free.

10. Entertainment: Pay to play games will diminish replaced by Play to earn games. Artists will start to control their own content increasing their revenue through WEB3. Gaming/VR will help with remittances across boarders and allow more people to make money higher than available in third will countries.

I could go on, but ten predictions is probably enough. 2022 is going to be rough, but there are a LOT more opportunities available today than when I was growing up, you just need to look outside of the box, because the box is now full of shit and no longer functioning.


Peace and welcome to WEB3

P.S.

OK, one more prediction: The percentage of people working in traditional jobs (not the governments fictitious employment figures) will continue to decline. Hail to the grey market!

[AdamB]

Just remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term. The reason being is Humans have a blind spot for truly understanding exponential growth.

And there is zero requirement that ignorance of the latter has anything to do with the former.

Interesting that when folks play this "gee ain't non-linears cool!" game, they don't ever mention that the exponential is self limiting and exogenously dependent on the conditions within which it is occurring (unless maybe the astrophysicists are applying it to the speed of growth of the universe nowadays?) and ends up just being a small part of a greater non-linear growth concept, like a market saturation curve.

It was funnier than hell though when Happy McPeaksters attempted to use it to predict oil production though.

[careinke]

Just remember, things never progress as fast as you think short term, and way faster than everyone thinks long term. The reason being is Humans have a blind spot for truly understanding exponential growth.

And there is zero requirement that ignorance of the latter has anything to do with the former.

Interesting that when folks play this "gee ain't non-linears cool!" game, they don't ever mention that the exponential is self limiting and exogenously dependent on the conditions within which it is occurring (unless maybe the astrophysicists are applying it to the speed of growth of the universe nowadays?) and ends up just being a small part of a greater non-linear growth concept, like a market saturation curve.

It was funnier than hell though when Happy McPeaksters attempted to use it to predict oil production though.

If I read you right, I agree. For example, if you project this to FF's available on earth, there is definitely an end game. I am not so sure you can apply the same reasoning to knowledge or culture.

BTW are you going to make a prediction or just continue trolling?

Peace

[AdamB]

If I read you right, I agree. For example, if you project this to FF's available on earth, there is definitely an end game. I am not so sure you can apply the same reasoning to knowledge or culture.

Knowledge and culture are relative concepts, the exponential function is not. Applying absolute mathematical equations to relative concepts can be entertaining, as thought experiments go, but tends to stop there. Probably why they are recycled within the Happy McPeakster sphere and don't seem to die?

BTW are you going to make a prediction or just continue trolling?

Peace

My apologies. The current peak oil (fall of 2018), will remain the 6th claimed peak oil of this century, and is no more the final peak oil of this century than the previously claimed 5.

And Merry Christmas.

[careinke]

If I read you right, I agree. For example, if you project this to FF's available on earth, there is definitely an end game. I am not so sure you can apply the same reasoning to knowledge or culture.

Knowledge and culture are relative concepts, the exponential function is not. Applying absolute mathematical equations to relative concepts can be entertaining, as thought experiments go, but tends to stop there. Probably why they are recycled within the Happy McPeakster sphere and don't seem to die?

Wow, I didn't realize you were the authority on what/when you can apply an exponential function. I'll try and remember to consult you in the future before I post again, not.

There are a lot of folks I'm going to have to correct and send them your way for an explanation.

Peace and Merry Christmas to you too.

[AdamB]

Wow, I didn't realize you were the authority on what/when you can apply an exponential function. I'll try and remember to consult you in the future before I post again, not.

I made a statement on the difference between absolute and relative concepts, no more an authority on the exponential function than anyone else who has used it their entire career.

There are a lot of folks I'm going to have to correct and send them your way for an explanation.

Now why would you focus on the correct general commentary I contributed and not the searing genius prediction you requested, and I made?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Here is another more relevant example I picked up from Jeff Booth’s book “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation is the Key to an Abundant Future.” We all know you can only fold a piece of paper about 7 times before it is not possible to fold it anymore leaving you with a folded piece of paper about an inch high. In his example he asks how high the paper would be IF you could continue folding it until you reached 50 folds. (I’ll post the answer at the end of this tome.)

...

Well this is getting a little long, so I’ll post my predictions for 2022 in my next post. Oh, the answer to folding the paper 50 times. It would reach from Earth to the sun!

I finally got one of these sorts of puzzles right, off the cuff. My quick answer, thinking about 43 more folds starting from an inch thick was "millions of miles".

Seems absurd at first until you ponder the rice - chess board problem, which is really just 63 "folds" (i.e. doublings) from the initial grain of rice.

Thinking about computer storage (in binary math) for a career at least gives some sense of this. Diskettes started in the original IBM PC at 180K as I recall, 40 years ago.

My first hard drive was a 10 meg add-in card, as I was tired of shuffling around about 100 diskettes in the late 80's.

Laptop hard drives (mostly actually solid state drives now) are now common at a Terabyte, or about 5.5 times a million times that 180K. Multiply by 10 or so for common drives used in desktop or big machines (like RAID systems for servers). RAM -- went from about 16K to about 16 gig in the same time-frame for most PC's, so again about a million fold increase.

And a million is "only" about 20 doublings (a meg is 1024 squared = 2**20).

I'll have to check out reviews on Jeff Booth's book -- thanks for the pointer.

...

For what it's worth, the controversial Cathy Wood of ARK funds thinks that modern tech will bring about a HIGHLY deflationary era for lots of costs over the next decade or so, through things like automation, robotics, etc. and makes many things much cheaper. IF we could just stop rapidly growing the population, we could potentially make things much better for the average human, as machines will be able to do much of the work.

(But humans and their habits -- what can you do?)

[Outcast_Searcher]

OK, here are my 2022 predictions in no particular order;

...

5. Fossil Fuels: Consumption will continue up through the year. However, it will start transitioning away from using them for transportation and heat to more specialized uses like lubricants, plastics, and other specialized needs.

6. Agriculture: You can now produce tomatoes locally all year round in Connecticut cheaper than importing them from California. Food will continue to become cheaper and more profitable grown locally vs large scale agriculture. This will also cut down on pesticide and chemical fertilizer use.

For 5, I agree with the overall longer term trend, re crude oil continuing to grow in demand globally for petrochemical use for MANY decades. Over time though, it seems like total global crude oil demand will shrink, once BEV adoption gets significant, and rapidly growing. Say, 20% in the first world, which will happen by 2030. I still think it will take 3 to 5 decades to "fully" transition from ICE to BEV, where something like 99% of new light vehicles are BEV's. For one thing, adoption in the third world will be slower, due to poorer infrastructure, and less resources for new cars.

For 6, I presume you're talking about using indoor factories to grow food like tomatoes? (When you say year round, I don't see that happening in winter in Connecticut, even if global warming gets much worse).

Just a quick glance at the web shows that indoor food farming (in controlled settings, without the vagaries of weather) is getting to be a big deal, and perhaps will expand rapidly, spurred on by AGW issues.

For example:

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/what-8 ... -plan-2021

[careinke]

Wow, I didn't realize you were the authority on what/when you can apply an exponential function. I'll try and remember to consult you in the future before I post again, not.

I made a statement on the difference between absolute and relative concepts, no more an authority on the exponential function than anyone else who has used it their entire career.

There are a lot of folks I'm going to have to correct and send them your way for an explanation.

Now why would you focus on the correct general commentary I contributed and not the searing genius prediction you requested, and I made?

I thought about commenting on your 2022 prediction, but it would be impossible to check in early 2023, so no point even though it may be correct. I'm pretty sure that's why Pops chose the thread topic.

I have a lot of longer timed WAGs, but they should be in another thread. BTW, I enjoy your banter, some trolls are useful and help to clarify/modify ones own paradigm. I think you fill that roll well.

Peace

[careinke]

* MODS,

I tried to find the 2021 predictions, but the site would not let me do the search. Could someone please bump the 2021 thread so I can check it out??? Actually it doesn't even need to be a MOD. Please and thanks!

[AdamB]

I thought about commenting on your 2022 prediction, but it would be impossible to check in early 2023, so no point even though it may be correct. I'm pretty sure that's why Pops chose the thread topic.

My prediction was more general, not something restricted to 2022. I didn't realize that Pops rules were just for the coming year. I have made no predictions about this 2022.

[careinke]

I thought about commenting on your 2022 prediction, but it would be impossible to check in early 2023, so no point even though it may be correct. I'm pretty sure that's why Pops chose the thread topic.

My prediction was more general, not something restricted to 2022. I didn't realize that Pops rules were just for the coming year. I have made no predictions about this 2022.

Oh come on, you've been around here for almost six years. you know how this works. Take a chance on a wrong prediction, you could use a little humility. Life is all about making assumptions about future events, if they prove incorrect at least you have objectively tested them and have further data.

2022 seems to me to be, socially, economically, and environmentally a very important year. Of course I could be wrong........

Peace

[Pops]

Thanks C,
There are only 12 people on this site and thousands of threads.
This one is for predictions
Don't muck it up

[evilgenius]

I don't know if Biden will be able to realign and reseal the global order? The current supply shortages could simply be like the metaphor of the ship that was stuck in the Suez Canal. You know, really bad, but something that will eventually become unstuck.

The thing is, if you add in all of the echoes that human emotion is capable of adding, and where they can weirdly show up, then you have a recipe for a violent year, internationally. There will probably be some prominent wars.

I wouldn't go so far as to predict that China will invade Taiwan. I think they will keep the political pressure on, by doing fly-bys and other military moves. But China is mostly doing something on land that hasn't been done before.

They are using the old Silk Road lessons to establish themselves in the Middle East and Africa. The sea is nice, but it is ruled by someone else. Whatever China is doing in response to the break down of the global order, they will do it on land, most likely, away from the sea.

That's probably why hypersonic weapons will become important. Two or three times the speed of the SR-71. I think that was a minute from horizon to horizon, at so many tens of thousands of feet. They could replace carriers as the means to project power. They could do payloads, or drones. An air force of drones, all of a sudden.

What it would do would be to provide those powers that had the capability to operate such things, with the ability to enfeeble any power that didn't. They could wreck that power's infrastructure, even in far away land locked places, at will. It would actually be far cheaper than colonization, which was always how these things had to be done before.

The US would be suddenly vulnerable because it relies upon a nuclear deterrent for all actions against its infrastructure. But a sudden, wide scale drone attack would not rise up to the same standard as a chemical attack, or an EMP, for that matter. It would be very hard to justify nuclear reprisal. The US will invest in this tech.

[AdamB]

Oh come on, you've been around here for almost six years. you know how this works.

You've underestimated my time "in da hood", and while I appreciate the credit you are willing to give me about how "this" works, I really don't. I can assume that there are rules related to prediction threads, that you are indicating are year specific? I wasn't aware of that component of this particular type of thread, perhaps led astray because I was participating in this thread before it got separated into some kind of official prediction thread? I originally thought I was just posting in the original.

Take a chance on a wrong prediction, you could use a little humility.

I specialize in being wrong, and don't mind at all. It is a great strength, when it comes to the Socratic method of learning. Picked up something from mousepad about complicated and complexity the other day. Plus, being right isn't necessarily rewarded around here anyway. Remember when a recalcitrant member named ObiWan won the end of year oil prediction game? Got banned for being irritating, was proven to be the best prognosticator of the year, and then the rules were changed to make sure that irritating posters proving the local church members wrong would be retroactively punished...for being right.

So sure...I'll make a prediction. US oil production will on average be higher in 2022 than it was in 2021. I'll go 90/10 on the over/under.

Life is all about making assumptions about future events, if they prove incorrect at least you have objectively tested them and have further data.

I would like to discuss this topic with you, if only because I don't believe you and I even think of "wrong" the same way.

2022 seems to me to be, socially, economically, and environmentally a very important year. Of course I could be wrong........
Peace

Define "important". And once you accept the stochastic nature of about everything happening around you, and me, and us as a species, of course you would be wrong. But in the infinite complexity of the probabilities of outcome for this year...what are the odds of being right? Once you define "important" of course.