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Global collapse due to peak didn't happen in 2000 or 2005 or 2010 as various models predicted. But some still think the world economy will collapse when we finally reach global peak oil sometime in the next 5-10 years.

Some scientists now think global warming will destroy advanced human civilization, or overpopulation, or the contradictions of capitalism, or nuclear war. Still others think there will be a great religious contest between good and evil at the end of the world. Or there could be some combination of catastrophes that would cause collapse.

we-could-disappear-meet-the-collapsologists

The scientific study of various theories of collapse and the culture of collapse is known as collapsology, and the people who believe that world civilization is on the brink of collapse are known as collapsologists.


Greetings, fellow collapsologists!

Plantagenet wrote:The scientific study of various theories of collapse and the culture of collapse is known as collapsology, and the people who believe that world civilization is on the brink of collapse are known as collapsologists.

Plant, I bought the book. I am still reading on it. Much of what I read so far I have already studied now for 2 decades but it is definitely worth a read to sombody new to the field.

"How Everything Can Collapse: A Manual for our Times 1st Edition"
by Pablo Servigne

Plantagenet wrote:Global collapse due to peak didn't happen in 2000 or 2005 or 2010 as various models predicted. But some still think the world economy will collapse when we finally reach global peak oil sometime in the next 5-10 years.

Some scientists now think global warming will destroy advanced human civilization, or overpopulation, or the contradictions of capitalism, or nuclear war. Still others think there will be a great religious contest between good and evil at the end of the world. Or there could be some combination of catastrophes that would cause collapse.

we-could-disappear-meet-the-collapsologists

The scientific study of various theories of collapse and the culture of collapse is known as collapsology, and the people who believe that world civilization is on the brink of collapse are known as collapsologists.

A good article. Pretty standard back to the earth perspective though, it didn't seem to include peak oil wackos, NTHE hopefuls, or the entire religious based contingent (Mormons and others).

This way of thinking about it runs a little closer to what peak oil and some of the other doomer types would seem to more closely resemble.

AdamB wrote:

Plantagenet wrote:The scientific study of various theories of collapse and the culture of collapse is known as collapsology, and the people who believe that world civilization is on the brink of collapse are known as collapsologists.

This way of thinking about it runs a little closer to what peak oil and some of the other doomer types would seem to more closely resemble.

Your link goes to an article about religious beliefs in an apocalypse and of course there are religious creeds and sects that expect the world to end in some kind of apocalypse.

However, I am most interested in various scientific ideas and models that predict the global economy and/or global civilization will end, and thats what collapsology is actually about.

Personally, I'm one of the global heating collapsologists. think global heating is reaching some kind of tipping point where it is now starting to disrupt food supplies and global economies and the huge forest fires we are seeing are now affecting people's ability to live safely in areas which have hazardous smoke conditions for months at a time.

You know what they say....trust the science.

Cheers!

Plantagenet wrote:

AdamB wrote:This way of thinking about it runs a little closer to what peak oil and some of the other doomer types would seem to more closely resemble.

Your link goes to an article about religious beliefs in an apocalypse and of course there are religious creeds and sects that expect the world to end in some kind of apocalypse.

Faith based doomers fit that category pretty solidly. And we all know that NTHE types fit this category as well, having pivoted from peak oil doom during the early part of the last decade.

A back to the earth perspective is interesting, if only in that the name isn't "becoming Amish".

Plantagenet wrote:However, I am most interested in various scientific ideas and models that predict the global economy and/or global civilization will end, and thats what collapsology is actually about.

Then you mistaken included peak oil on your list, if you are interested in reasonable and scientific mechanisms for doom. Predicting the world will end has far more basis in faith based reasons than something as simple as a changing environment, or folks with a distaste with modern society, as discussed in the article you referenced.

Plantagenet wrote:Personally, I'm one of the global heating collapsologists. think global heating is reaching some kind of tipping point where it is now starting to disrupt food supplies and global economies and the huge forest fires we are seeing are now affecting people's ability to live safely in areas which have hazardous smoke conditions for months at a time.

Good thing your definition of what constituents collapse is so....non-collapsy. Poor people....can't live safely? Air quality isn't up to standard? So...like LA in the 1960's, that was all collapsy was it?

Tell you what, when the death toll from starvation, exposure, dehydration, murder and disease exceeds population growth in that year, we'll have something to discuss.

Plantagenet wrote:You know what they say....trust the science.
Cheers!

I'd be out of a job if folks didn't. But you don't get to make the above claim on a peak oil website without more than a little giggling involved.

AdamB wrote:
Tell you what, when the death toll from starvation, exposure, dehydration, murder and disease exceeds population growth in that year, we'll have something to discuss.

and something to celebrate.

Ibon wrote:

AdamB wrote:
Tell you what, when the death toll from starvation, exposure, dehydration, murder and disease exceeds population growth in that year, we'll have something to discuss.

and something to celebrate.

Could be, depending on which side of the misanthropy equation you sit. What was it the butler said about the Joker in the movie when trying to explain that kind of person to Bruce Wayne? Some folks just want to watch the world burn. They are heavily represented in the gleeful Apocalyptic schemes folks dream up.

I don’t know that we, any of us, know how collapse will happen or when. There are a range of modalities on how and when this could happen. Obviously then we cant predict how it would roll out. Who could have predicted the last 9 months?

Given this range of uncertainty all we can do is to come up with our potential plans for what we personally guess is the most likely future scenario. Those plans will differ for each of us and some strategies will do better than others. Many of us will fail, hopefully some will succeed.

It’s good to have a wide range of options.

AdamB wrote:Good thing your definition of what constituents collapse is so....non-collapsy.

Your reading comprehension seems to be very poor and your sentence above is illiterate. Please look up the meaning of the word "constituents"..... clearly you don't know what it means.

AdamB wrote:Poor people....can't live safely? Air quality isn't up to standard? So...like LA in the 1960's, that was all collapsy was it?

You must be extremely ill-informed to think that 1960s air pollution in LA is the same thing as the forest fire smoke that has been covering thousands of square miles in the US west this summer.. Obviously the air pollution problems in LA in the 1960s were a local problem that had nothing to do with global warming....while the giant forest fires we are seeing from California to Australia to Siberia have everything to do with global warming.

And, as I said, a certain fatigue is setting in among people who live in places where forest fires are repeatedly causing mass destruction, mass evacuations, and mass exposure to unhealthy air for months at at time. After a few cycles of this some people are leaving, i.e. they are becoming climate refugees.

california-fires-climate-change-out-migration

Cheers!

AdamB wrote:

Ibon wrote:

AdamB wrote:
Tell you what, when the death toll from starvation, exposure, dehydration, murder and disease exceeds population growth in that year, we'll have something to discuss.

and something to celebrate.

Could be, depending.

Yes. For example, if your focus is on reversing the destruction of natural ecosystems and moving toward recolonizing native habitat in former human landscapes.

Ibon wrote:and something to celebrate.

Celebrating death is not something to tell others about. I understand you are rooting on the planet but still...just sayin.

Newfie wrote:I don’t know that we, any of us, know how collapse will happen or when.

I agree.

The corollary observation being, but it sure didn't stop the Apocalyptians from doing it right on this website!

It is my current theory that doomers enjoy playing in the Doom Fantasy League games. As peak oil and the NTHE folks have demonstrated, the WHY doesn't matter, they just slide from the current bandwagon to any other one that appears to be more popular.

Newfie wrote:There are a range of modalities on how and when this could happen. Obviously then we cant predict how it would roll out. Who could have predicted the last 9 months?

Who could have predicted that peak oil was a crock? Folks that knew better. Who might predict that the next call of doom is a crock? The same folks?

Alternatively, if we accept that it'll happen, and we just don't know when, then why worry about it? We can but plan, live, love, eat drink and be merry, and one day, regardless of global doom, we will suffer personal doom. I have a theory that doomer expressions of fear (regardless of the current popular mechanisms) are more related to a fear of individual mortality, then any fear of global doom. It is just easier to talk about it in the more abstract sense, than the certain and absolute guarantee of doom that future holds for each of us.

Newfie wrote:It’s good to have a wide range of options.

And not to have fallen for the ridiculous nonsense of the past, in order to be better prepared for avoiding being sold a bill of goods in the future.

Was it Pops who kicked out the idea of "Make a plan and work it"? Strikes me as a good idea, and doesn't even require a doom off in the future to make it one.

REAL Green wrote:

Ibon wrote:and something to celebrate.

Celebrating death is not something to tell others about. I understand you are rooting on the planet but still...just sayin.

Some might call it celebrating balance or healing.

Ibon wrote:Some might call it celebrating balance or healing.

Before you get too happy remember the rebalancing might involve you or yours. I doubt any of us will escape its visit.

REAL Green wrote:

Ibon wrote:Some might call it celebrating balance or healing.

Before you get too happy remember the rebalancing might involve you or yours. I doubt any of us will escape its visit.

We all escaped the Great Dieoff of the 1980's, and then the global peak oil claimed in 1990, and then 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2015, peak oil demand in 2020 so far, heck I'd say we have a pretty good track record of dodging all these bullets.

You really figure the current rate of sea level rise, temperature change and irritated lower classes are going to cause anything remotely resembling a net population decrease soon? I mean, all those other claimed dooms and dieoffs and peak oils and whatnot didn't put a dent in population growth, let alone stop the invention of SUVs, CDOs, oil wars when it turns out they were unnecessary, government binge borrowing, zero percent interest rates, SpaceX, Tesla and all the cool wind turbines and solar panels on rooftops everywhere we use to fuel our cars now?

AdamB wrote:You really figure the current rate of sea level rise, temperature change and irritated lower classes are going to cause anything remotely resembling a net population decrease soon?

probably not but it is not out of the question

The accurate term is "realist".

AdamB wrote:peak oil was a crock

Why do you think that? Last time I looked the world hadn’t reached peak oil yet.

M. King Hubbert’s mathematical model that purported to predict the exact date of peak oil turned out to be a crock, but thats different from the concept of peak oil itself.

AdamB wrote: I have a theory that doomer expressions of fear .... are more related to a fear of individual mortality, then any fear of global doom.

Once again you demonstrate that you don’t understand what you read. I’ve never seen any “expressions of fear” by any poster at this site ever. To the contrary—-Ibon and folks in his corner actually are looking forward to some kind of doom as way to cleanse the planet of people. Others seem it as a reason to
“Prep” and get ready. Personally, I look at it as an interesting and potentially entertaining event.....watching the politicians bumble and fail as the climate changes is profoundly interesting, IMHO, and tracking the shrinkage of Arctic Sea Ice, the rise in CO2 and sea level, the collapse of glaciers and ice shelves, and now these huge forest fires in country after country is like watching a real=life disaster movie.......Its goddam entertaining, IMHO.

Cheers!

REAL Green wrote:

Ibon wrote:Some might call it celebrating balance or healing.

Before you get too happy remember the rebalancing might involve you or yours. I doubt any of us will escape its visit.

Of course, that is a given.

Ibon wrote:
Some might call it celebrating balance or healing.

This video is worth a thousand words in reference to celebrating balance and healing once the death rate exceeds the birth rate of our species.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HTeSQWX7O9A