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Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 26 Aug 2020, 21:02:43
by Outcast_Searcher
asg70 wrote:
sparky wrote:the ratio of speculative trading to real industry operators was 50/1

Funny how reluctant peakers were to acknowledge speculators back in the runup of 2008, though... Speculation or really any accusation of financial manipulation is the convenient excuse when prices aren't where one expected or hoped them to be.

And liberals are the most outrageous about this at high pricing extremes, BTW.

When prices are high, it's all about windfall profits taxes, and liberal politicians are falling all over themselves to try to scoop up votes proclaiming their desire for that, ala Bernie the taker style.

But when prices are very LOW (which is as random, re speculation, as when they're very high), do ANY liberals THANK the producers for the low prices? OF COURSE NOT. :lol:

Because THAT, of course, would be highly unlikely to BUY VOTES.

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 26 Aug 2020, 22:29:18
by sparky
My point on the price of crude with speculation is somewhat more nuanced
speculation act as a froth on top of the price of production ,
since all production prices are different , some very low other quite high ,
it's the price of the "ultimate traded barrel" which fix the world wide quoted price
you can see the problem
a lot of the industry has little commonality with world wide quoted price
for reason of logistics , refineries location , politics or grade of oil real prices are quite variable

speculators were riding an expansive market with a very short cycle
there is the real market , airline companies usually arbitrage their fuel cost by taking position on the oil market
other actually use the physical oil that's the 1/50 of the trade market
speculators have no use for crude , they mostly don't even know much about it
they can buy and sell with no regard to the real quantities used in the refineries

producers does , when the refineries throttled down their inputs , the real buyers disappeared and the music stopped ,
it turned out to be a game of musical chair with very few chairs indeed

now the price is more or less trending reality ,
again the crude oil market is a big place with various local condition , reality is here and now
not next month in New York

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 09 Sep 2020, 06:20:51
by REAL Green
“IEA: Oil Demand Recovery Has Stalled” ... ews+Update)

“In its latest Oil Market Report for August, the IEA downgraded its oil demand forecast for this year by 140,000 bpd compared to the estimate from the previous month’s report. This was the first downgrade in several months, “reflecting the stalling of mobility as the number of Covid-19 cases remains high, and weakness in the aviation sector,” the IEA said. The IEA expected in the middle of August that crude oil demand this year would be 8.1 million bpd lower than it was in 2019. The market will be waiting for the most recent assessment from the IEA in its next report scheduled to be released on September 15.”

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 09 Sep 2020, 10:08:01
by vtsnowedin
I doubt the oil industry will see any good news as long as Covid hangs over their heads. Not to worry though as the oil in the ground will wait for the demand and price for it to return. Perhaps in a year or more.

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 09 Sep 2020, 18:04:09
by evilgenius
rockdoc123 wrote:
And now Canada can't take up the slack.

what "slack" would that be? Refineries are full, storage is full, nobody is buying oil because there is so much of it around and the refineries have lost a lot of the market for their products. Have you been living under a rock? :roll:

You didn't read the next line. You cut it right out. It said before these cheap prices they couldn't. I guess you did that because you like to accuse people of living under rocks? Anyway, it's an allusion to the state of things, where Canada was already having trouble before prices got this cheap. There were fires. There was the usual political tension. Then the oil price broke.

I wondered if West Africa, which has always been the next big thing just a few years of development away would be adversely affected. West Africa was always a hedge against Venezuela blowing up in America's face, and against Canada being able to pull off the sort of environment end run which they did. There is a lot going on in the Gulf of Guinea. The powers there are fed, in part, by oil. Nigeria is a very important nation in Africa. They recently managed to remove a ruler from power, when most African nations who elect a person can't seem to shake them once they have burrowed themselves in. Does that mean that these cheap prices have reduced the impact that crude plays in those kind of domestic shenanigans? Is king crude on his way out, or just laying low? King crude has been a major player in many country's domestic politics. Will that role continue.

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 09 Sep 2020, 20:59:59
by sparky
Just now the price is controlled by the OPEC production limits ,
the compliance has been pretty good but now the quota have been eased and the traded price is softer

I guess it's to keep the US production from surging back

Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postPosted: Mon 08 Feb 2021, 13:00:33
by AdamB
dissident wrote:The US is in a circularity. It cannot have expensive gasoline since it has developed a consumer economy which requires cheap gasoline.

Fortunately car makers have been providing a cure for that for a decade or more now. Hard to say an EV driver even notices gas prices. The things were a great prep for peak oil fears of a decade or more ago, and now they are just good rides.

dissident wrote: If you have to get in a car to do grocery shopping, then the gasoline price becomes an issue.

Not at all. Doesn't matter when the wife goes shopping on the other side of the belt way either. Or to work. Or picks up a kid at school. Or anything else. Maybe you live in an area where it is illegal to be gasoline free?

dissident wrote: The 2008 recession was linked to the gasoline prices in the USA since the exurbs became nonviable and helped precipitate the subprime meltdown. People try to dismiss the link of this meltdown to gasoline prices but they have no substitute explanation. All bubbles inflate until something bursts them. So what other cause in 2008 was there to deflate this bubble?

Oil prices spiked some 6 months or more AFTER the 2008 recession started. The same folks who lived farther from work then, are still doing it now, and hasn't caused a recession from then, to now. But far more folks are looking for those charging stations from their employers, that's for sure! Free fuel as an employment perk has worked out great for the wife and I over the years.

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Thu 11 Feb 2021, 12:50:00
by AdamB
Crude oil price recovery too fast for its own good

"The OPEC+ alliance of oil producers will face a big test of its cohesion in a few weeks’ time, when ministers meet to discuss the next step in their historic production deal aimed at rebalancing the world’s oil supply with recovering demand. Things have almost moved too quickly in their favor."

Re: THE Gasoline Price Thread Pt. 5

Unread postPosted: Sat 13 Feb 2021, 15:18:13
by AdamB
How much higher can oil prices go?

Oil prices have rallied back to the point they are almost ready to match pre-Covid levels. There are two key drivers for this miracle, which no one predicted early on as being possible in this period of time.

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 03 Mar 2021, 17:12:31
by AdamB
Super cycle oil prices.

Two of the biggest banks on Wall Street are calling a new “supercycle” in oil, with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs both predicting prices will soar when the pandemic abates.

Re: THE Price Of Crude Pt. 15

Unread postPosted: Wed 03 Mar 2021, 17:51:34
by Pops
I've been seeing "supercycle" quite a bit.
I think it is BS.
The last "Supercycle" was basically China making a big growth push and buying up everything in sight up against a lack of investment in the late 90's overproduction.

Just a way for the talking heads to justify their salary and fill their slot when it can all be explained by supply/demand.

Says me, LOL